Data cutoff2026-06-17latest completed source-data date

Candidates15top paper-policy research names

ActivationactiveAll required deep-dive components have current eligible evidence for every provisional paper candidate.

Championtransparent_stock_opportunity:restoration_v4active ensemble policy

Paper strategytop_ranked_long:seed_v1active paper policy

Runstock_opportunity_report_refresh_20260622T132708Zreport generation key

Top Candidate Thesis Board

Rank	Symbol	Decision Read	Score	Confidence	Expected Return	Sector	Why	Why Not / Review	Evidence Completeness
1	ASA	Cautious positive candidate	60.15	0.652	-0.5%	Financial Services	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0863; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0441; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0420	Governance Risk contributed -0.0058	18 component rows; 0 missing
2	FSM	Cautious positive candidate	59.70	0.661	0.8%	Basic Materials	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0662; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0506; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0491	Governance Risk contributed -0.0097	18 component rows; 0 missing
3	B	Cautious positive candidate	59.34	0.651	-0.0%	Basic Materials	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0602; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0492; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0490	Governance Risk contributed -0.0097	18 component rows; 0 missing
4	TNK	Cautious positive candidate	59.32	0.628	-1.4%	Industrials	Fundamental Value contributed 0.1057; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0529; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0291	Governance Risk contributed -0.0272	18 component rows; 0 missing
5	CASH	Cautious positive candidate	59.29	0.616	0.2%	Financial Services	Fundamental Value contributed 0.1079; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0556; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0308	Governance Risk contributed -0.0233; News Event Intelligence contributed -0.0013	18 component rows; 0 missing
6	STNG	Cautious positive candidate	59.26	0.633	-1.7%	Energy	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0983; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0526; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0330	Governance Risk contributed -0.0310	18 component rows; 0 missing
7	ARIS	Cautious positive candidate	59.25	0.656	-0.5%	Basic Materials	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0814; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0451; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0429	Governance Risk contributed -0.0116; Liquidity Dilution Risk contributed -0.0073	18 component rows; 0 missing
8	KGC	Cautious positive candidate	59.04	0.671	0.8%	Basic Materials	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0596; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0551; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0508	Governance Risk contributed -0.0194	18 component rows; 0 missing
9	PAAS	Cautious positive candidate	58.83	0.662	0.8%	Basic Materials	Markov State Blend contributed 0.0573; Fundamental Value contributed 0.0528; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0453	Governance Risk contributed -0.0097; Liquidity Dilution Risk contributed -0.0073	18 component rows; 0 missing
10	AEM	Cautious positive candidate	58.81	0.661	0.8%	Basic Materials	Markov State Blend contributed 0.0586; Fundamental Value contributed 0.0510; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0434	Governance Risk contributed -0.0136	18 component rows; 0 missing
11	DMLP	Cautious positive candidate	58.78	0.636	0.9%	Energy	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0718; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0537; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0508	Governance Risk contributed -0.0272; News Event Intelligence contributed -0.0002	18 component rows; 0 missing
12	IAG	Cautious positive candidate	58.68	0.673	-0.5%	Basic Materials	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0640; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0526; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0398	Governance Risk contributed -0.0097; Government Trade Activity contributed -0.0084	18 component rows; 0 missing
13	SII	Cautious positive candidate	58.45	0.639	-0.5%	Financial Services	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0535; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0501; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0413	Governance Risk contributed -0.0116	18 component rows; 0 missing
14	HCI	Cautious positive candidate	58.38	0.621	0.0%	Financial Services	Fundamental Value contributed 0.1066; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0528; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0216	Governance Risk contributed -0.0291	18 component rows; 0 missing
15	NEM	Cautious positive candidate	58.28	0.649	0.1%	Basic Materials	Fundamental Value contributed 0.0580; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0502; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0480	Governance Risk contributed -0.0272	18 component rows; 0 missing

Required Component Coverage

This matrix shows whether each required model family is present, current, and eligible across the current top candidates before the full evidence sections begin.

Component	Present	Current	Eligible	Avg Confidence	Net Weighted Signal
Markov State Blend	15/15	15/15	15/15	0.442	0.6511
Fundamental Value	15/15	15/15	15/15	1.000	1.1231
Governance Risk	15/15	15/15	15/15	0.850	-0.2658
Liquidity Dilution Risk	15/15	15/15	15/15	1.000	-0.0146
Neural Market Horizon	15/15	15/15	15/15	0.476	0.4402
News Event Intelligence	15/15	15/15	15/15	0.877	0.0343

Stock Opportunity Ensemble: 2026-06-17

Run: stock_opportunity_report_refresh_20260622T132708Z

Research output only. Scores, ranks, and paper candidates are model observations, not trade instructions.

End-Of-Day Contract

Completed source-data cutoff: 2026-06-17
This report runs after the daily data-lake refresh and the Markov Stock State Engine finish.
Ensemble champion: transparent_stock_opportunity:restoration_v4
Paper-strategy policy: top_ranked_long:seed_v1
Paper-strategy activation: active
Activation reason: All required deep-dive components have current eligible evidence for every provisional paper candidate.
Ranked eligible symbols: 2,330
Paper-strategy research candidates: 15

Data Source And Decision Flow Map

This map is part of the report contract. It shows what data enters the foundation, which application or model uses it, what that model decides, and where the decision appears in the stock value report.

flowchart LR
    classDef source fill:#eef6ff,stroke:#2d6a9f,stroke-width:1px,color:#10253f
    classDef storage fill:#f7f7fb,stroke:#6b7280,stroke-width:1px,color:#111827
    classDef weighted fill:#e8f7ed,stroke:#247a3d,stroke-width:2px,color:#0f2f1a
    classDef review fill:#fff7df,stroke:#b7791f,stroke-width:2px,color:#3b2600
    classDef gap fill:#fdecec,stroke:#b42318,stroke-width:2px,color:#4a0f0b
    classDef decision fill:#efe7ff,stroke:#6d28d9,stroke-width:2px,color:#24104f
    classDef output fill:#e7f0fa,stroke:#1f4e79,stroke-width:2px,color:#172033
    classDef control fill:#f0fdfa,stroke:#0f766e,stroke-width:2px,color:#12312f

    subgraph S["Source systems - what data enters the lake"]
        FMP["FMP API: prices, profiles, statements, ratios, fundamentals, analyst data, news"]
        SEC["SEC EDGAR/data sets: submissions, filing text, XBRL company facts, statement data sets"]
        NEWS["News APIs/feeds: FMP news/press releases, NewsAPI, NewsData, GDELT opt-in discovery smoke, factual events, opinion, forecasts, publisher and author attribution"]
        GOV["Government disclosures: congressional and government buy/sell filings"]
        OFFGOV["Official government APIs: Congress.gov bills/members/committees, Regulations.gov dockets/documents/comments, OpenFEC candidates/committees/finance"]
        MACRO["FRED/ALFRED and BEA: macro vintages, Census-mirrored economic indicators, economic accounts, input-output tables"]
        BLS["BLS Public Data API: CPI, PPI, unemployment, payrolls, wages, JOLTS, sector employment and sector wages"]
        TREASURY["Treasury Fiscal Data API: public debt, receipts, outlays, customs duties"]
        CENSUS["Census EITS API: 176 direct retail, manufacturing, wholesale, 57-series QSS services, VIP construction, BFS formation, housing, and trade series"]
        FACTORSRC["Kenneth French Data Library: Fama/French daily factor returns and momentum"]
        ENERGY["EIA and commodity sources: oil/gas prices, production, inventories, refinery utilization, fuel prices, power prices, generation mix"]
        CFTC["CFTC Public Reporting: COT futures positioning and commodity trader categories"]
        FUTURES["Databento: CME Globex futures curves, definitions, daily bars, statistics"]
        TRADE["UN Comtrade and OECD TiVA: commodity trade flows, partner shares, value-added dependency"]
        IDS["OpenFIGI and GLEIF: security identifiers, LEI entities, parent/child relationships"]
        LEGACY["Legacy local raw data: migrated API extracts and seed datasets"]
    end

    subgraph L["Foundation storage and controls"]
        RAW["D:/DataLake/raw + audit logs: immutable responses, request fingerprints, cache hits, rate limits"]
        CURATED["D:/DataLake/curated + PostgreSQL: normalized tables, current views, source cutoffs"]
        CONTRACT["research.component_signal: score, confidence, horizon, freshness, eligibility"]
        GRAPHSTORE["Graph tables: core.entity, relationships, evidence, entity_exposure_signal"]
        SCHEDULECTRL["5 PM scheduled chain: raw update, curation, applications, reports, health"]
        CREDCTRL["Credential readiness, provider smokes, source checks, raw-asset source readiness, and redacted .env hygiene: catalog.source_credential_ref + .env; research.source_readiness_operator_view tracks 36 sources; 20/23 credentials configured; optional gaps BLS_API_KEY, OPENALEX_MAILTO, UN_COMTRADE_API_KEY"]
        RATECTRL["Provider rate and bandwidth controls: source_rate_policy, request leases, dynamic delay, 30-day byte guard"]
        DEDUPCTRL["No-repeat controls: request_cache, fetch_coverage, task idempotency, raw fingerprints"]
        APPSTEPLOG["Scheduled application summaries: per-step JSON status, command, duration, failure details"]
        SQLSTATCTRL["SQL-backed dataset stats refresh: ANALYZE core.sec_company_fact and core.sec_filing_history before freshness reporting"]
        HEALTHCTRL["Pipeline health: scheduled task, worker runs, queue, source-access checks, source readiness, all-provider usage, provider runtime slots/backoff, credential readiness, report freshness, scheduler/result recovery"]
        PUBLICGUARD["Public report guard: stable HTML files in D:/Public Reports; no dated buildup; no docx accumulation"]
    end

    subgraph W["Weighted today in champion rank"]
        MARKOV["Markov Stock State Engine: multi-horizon state probabilities and expected returns"]
        NEURAL["Neural Horizon Overlay: visible neural up/flat/down probabilities"]
        FUND["Fundamental Research: valuation, quality, liquidity, dilution, peer context"]
        GOVRISK["SEC/Governance Aggregate: current governance_risk component"]
        NEWSAGG["News/Event Aggregate: current news_event_intelligence component"]
        GOVSIGNAL["Government Trade Signal: recent buy/sell pressure and filer track record"]
    end

    subgraph V["Visible in reports or training, not fully weighted yet"]
        SECDETAIL["SEC Modular Families: accounting, dilution, insider, control, related-party, distress, cyber/legal"]
        NEWSDETAIL["News Event Families: earnings, analyst revision, issuer release, corporate action, regulatory, product, labor, macro-sector; latest full-history corpus has 1,576,229 articles and 1,410,354 event rows"]
        FORECASTER["Forecaster Reliability Overlay: 882,046 forecast evidence rows, 2,619,863 matured outcomes, and 3,980 review-only overlay signals"]
        RELGRAPH["Relationship Graph: company, sector, person, policy, macro, commodity, supply-chain context; latest graph has 152,031 entities, 1,115,580 active relationships, 1,022,589 evidence rows, and 2,577,042 exposure signals"]
        GOVPOLICY["Official Government Policy Graph: Congress.gov 119th bills, Regulations.gov documents, and OpenFEC candidates; latest bounded raw-asset ingest parsed 20 records into 60 entities and 40 source-supported relationships"]
        RELTRAIN["Relationship Weight Training App: persisted readiness report, 56 families, 2,297,121 feature observations, 348,366 matured outcomes, 673,579 review-only component signals; no trained promotion until enough distinct dates mature"]
        RELSCORE["Relationship Exposure Score: 673,579 review-only component_signal rows through 2026-06-21"]
        VISAPP["Stock Decision Visibility Models: publishes disabled review-only component_signal rows; latest refresh added macro, Census, energy, BEA, identity, SEC XBRL/segment, ownership, and analyst/forecaster visibility"]
        MACROVIEW["Macro Regime Pressure Score: rates, inflation, growth, dollar, credit, recession exposure; 452,703 review-only component rows"]
        CENSUSVIEW["Census Activity Pressure Score: Census-only retail, services, construction, inventory, trade, and business-formation exposure; 106,956 review-only component rows"]
        BLSLABOR["BLS Sector Labor Signals: 28 sector employment/wage series mapped to labor-market and labor-cost graph targets"]
        ENERGYVIEW["Energy/Commodity Exposure Score: EIA price, supply, inventory, refinery, consumption, and generation pressure by company/sector relationship; 71,700 review-only component rows"]
        BEAVIEW["BEA Supply Chain Pressure Score: input-output dependency and shock-propagation proxy; 16,288 review-only component rows"]
        TRADEVIEW["Trade/Value-Chain Graph: country-commodity flows and country-country value-chain share edges; UN Comtrade has 59 aggregate 2024 flow rows and 126 source-supported active relationships"]
        IDVIEW["Identity/Corporate Structure Risk: FIGI, LEI, ISIN, issuer/security and parent-child complexity"]
        SECXBRLVIEW["SEC XBRL Reconciliation Signal: companyfacts versus fundamentals and anomaly flags"]
        SECSTMTDATA["SEC Statement Data Sets: active-CIK statement facts and segment dimensions"]
        SECNOTESDATA["SEC Statement Notes Data Sets: monthly text/numeric note facts, dimensions, risk and valuation tags"]
        SECNOTESMODEL["SEC Notes Signal Model: related-party, debt/liquidity, legal, dilution, concentration, accounting and segment note signals"]
        OWNERCONTROL["Beneficial Ownership Control Signal: large-holder concentration, control risk, and recent holder support"]
        ANALYSTVIEW["Analyst/Forecaster Alpha: upgrades, targets, firms, authors, and realized forecast skill"]
        VALDATA["Valuation Data Foundation: access audit and normalized missing-data landing tables"]
        FMPBULKDATA["FMP Bulk Data Foundation: EOD, profiles, statements, TTM metrics, ratings, scores, peers, analyst bulk"]
        FACTORDATA["Factor Data Foundation: Fama/French 3-factor, 5-factor, momentum history"]
        FORWARDEST["Forward Estimates: FMP analyst estimates plus Alpha Vantage revision drift"]
        CAPRETURN["Capital Return: dividends plus direct SEC buyback flow evidence"]
        OWNERSHIPMA["Ownership/M&A: beneficial ownership, control-change filings, M&A event seed data"]
        COTPOS["Commodity Positioning: CFTC COT producer, swap, managed-money and CIT pressure"]
        FUTURECURVE["Futures Curve Foundation: Databento GLBX continuous-rank definitions, daily bars, and statistics for energy/metals/grains; 32,894 bars through 2026-06-19, 15,499 statistics rows, 192 definition rows"]
        COMMODITYVAL["Commodity Carry/Value Score: futures curve trend/backwardation projected through company-commodity relationships"]
        COMMODITYINV["Commodity Inventory + Positioning Value: EIA inventory/energy state plus CFTC COT through company-commodity relationships"]
        PRICEFACTOR["Historical Price Factor Lab: old price-history momentum, reversal, volatility, trend and liquidity alpha"]
        HISTALPHA["Historical Alpha Model Lab: fundamentals, earnings surprises, dividends, and SEC filing-event alpha"]
        VALAPP["Stock Valuation Model Lab: disabled review-only valuation-school component_signal rows"]
        OUTCOME["Generic Component Outcome Sync: evaluates eligible/review signals against curated price history"]
        RESTACK["Research Stack Trainer: exploratory nonnegative weights across review-only and champion components"]
        RELMULT["Relative/Peer Multiples: market and comparable-company cheapness"]
        CASHVAL["Cash Flow/Residual/GARP: FCF yield, economic-profit proxy, growth at reasonable price"]
        ASSETVAL["Asset/Net Cash/Shareholder Yield: book value, net cash, dilution, capital return proxy"]
        GRAHAMVAL["Graham Deep Value: Graham-number margin plus SEC net-current-asset cushion"]
        QUALITYVAL["Quality/Distress/Sector Value: compounder, capital efficiency, value-trap guardrails"]
        CLASSICVAL["Classic Value Screens: Magic Formula, Piotroski proxy, Altman proxy, Beneish proxy"]
        FACTORVAL["Factor Tilt Models: value, profitability, conservative investment, size, balance-sheet strength"]
        FACTORATTR["Factor Attribution Model: realized factor exposure, residual returns, and regime validation"]
        INCOMEVAL["Dividend/Income Value: dividend events, consistency, cash-flow support, leverage safety"]
        BUYBACKVAL["SEC Buyback Capital Return: direct repurchase facts, yield proxy, issuance and share-count context"]
        FORWARDVAL["Forward Estimate Value: analyst forward EPS yield, growth, breadth, dispersion"]
        COSTCAP["Cost Of Capital Adjusted Value: valuation yield and returns versus risk-free rate, credit spread, beta, and sector WACC prior"]
        REVDCF["Reverse DCF Value: implied growth hurdle versus analyst/fundamental growth and terminal-growth proxy"]
        EXPLDCF["Explicit Scenario DCF: bear/base/bull five-year cash-flow-yield DCF proxy"]
        SECFINQUAL["SEC Statement Financial Quality: annual SEC facts, Piotroski flags, accruals, receivables/inventory/margin/leverage deltas"]
        SECALTMAN["SEC Statement Altman Solvency: annual SEC working-capital, EBIT, market-equity/liabilities, sales/assets factors"]
        SECBENEISH["SEC Statement Beneish Accounting Quality: annual SEC M-score indices, accruals, and manipulation-risk evidence"]
        SEGMENTFOUND["SEC Segment/SOTP Visibility: dimensional segment facts, revenue-axis concentration, and SOTP feature readiness"]
        SEGMENTVAL["SEC Segment SOTP Value: revenue-axis diversification plus valuation/cash-flow/balance-sheet overlay"]
        MNAVAL["M&A Private-Market Activity: target/acquirer/sector events with fundamental context; no deal multiples yet"]
        MOMCONFIRM["Value + Momentum Confirmation: valuation/quality checked against Markov return pressure"]
    end

    subgraph N["Promotion gates and next upgrades"]
        RELPROMOTE["Relationship Exposure Promotion: enable only after validated outcomes and reviewed weights; current gate is minimum_training_dates_not_met"]
        MACROPROMOTE["Macro Promotion: train point-in-time outcomes and reviewed weights"]
        CENSUSPROMOTE["Census Activity Promotion: validate Census-only demand, construction, trade, and business-formation exposures"]
        ENERGYPROMOTE["Energy/Commodity Promotion: validate producer-benefit and input-cost pressure"]
        BEAPROMOTE["BEA Supply Chain Promotion: replace keyword proxy with mapped upstream/downstream graph"]
        TRADEPROMOTE["Trade/Value-Chain Promotion: train country/commodity and value-added exposure weights"]
        IDPROMOTE["Identity Risk Promotion: validate which structure flags predict risk or coverage problems"]
        SECXBRLPROMOTE["SEC XBRL Promotion: validate anomaly flags against forward returns and restatement risk"]
        SEGMENTPROMOTE["Segment/SOTP Promotion: validate segment deterioration and sum-of-parts valuation features"]
        OWNERPROMOTE["Ownership Control Promotion: train holder-level outcomes before weight promotion"]
        ANALYSTPROMOTE["Analyst Alpha Promotion: promote only reliable forecaster groups with enough samples"]
        PRICEPROMOTE["Historical Price Factor Promotion: require stable out-of-sample lift beyond Markov/neural"]
        ALPHAPROMOTE["Historical Alpha Promotion: require stable out-of-sample lift by family, sector, and horizon"]
        FACTORPROMOTE["Factor Attribution Promotion: validate residual alpha beyond Markov/neural and price-factor overlap"]
        COMMODITYPROMOTE["Commodity Carry Promotion: validate curve-shape, input-cost, and producer-benefit outcomes"]
        VALPROMOTE["Valuation School Promotion: constrained-stack validation by sector, regime, and horizon"]
        STACKPROMOTE["Research Stack Promotion: require enough distinct dates, out-of-sample lift, and operator review"]
        SCOREHIST["Score History Readiness: research.stock_opportunity_score_history_readiness_operator_view; 10 eligible dates, all scored, 0 missing score symbols"]
        COVERAGETRIAGE["Component Coverage Triage: research.component_signal_promotion_triage_operator_view; 25 review-only outcome-covered rows split into 5 positive candidates, 5 inverse/risk-orientation candidates, 15 stack-validation rows, 0 low-sample rows"]
        PROMOREADY["Model Promotion Readiness: research.model_promotion_readiness_operator_view; 13 tracked rows, 1 research-stack challenger ready for operator review"]
        TRAINSTATUS["2026-06-21 Training Promotion Status: no champion promotion; five research challengers refreshed; h21 all-current challenger ready for operator review but still research-only"]
        VALDATAGAP["Remaining Valuation Data Gaps: statement-grade FCFF/FCFE DCF paths, normalized segment financial history, repurchase authorizations/share-retirement history, pre-2024/additional-instrument curve backfills, reserves/cost curves, richer transaction terms and multiples"]
        FMPBULKGAP["FMP Bulk Entitlement Gate: current key returned HTTP 402; enable Bulk APIs before scheduling"]
    end

    subgraph D["Decision and output layer"]
        ENSEMBLE["Stock Opportunity Ensemble: champion weights, missingness, eligibility, rank, thesis"]
        PAPER["Paper Strategy Ledger + Optimizer: top <=15 shortlist, positions, outcomes, challenger strategy tests"]
        THESISBOARD["Report Thesis + Decision Matrix: why/why-not, data used, model impact"]
        WATERFALL["Component Contribution Waterfall: weighted champion impact"]
        REVIEWBOARD["Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board: SEC, news, valuation, macro/graph, identity, historical labs"]
        REPORT["D:/Public Reports/Stock_Value_Report_Deep_Dive.html: primary stable daily report"]
        HTML["D:/Public Reports/Stock_Value_Report_Data_Flow.html: diagram-first operating map"]
        PROMOREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Model_Promotion_Readiness.html: promotion gates, ready challengers, component input triage, blockers, and review checklist"]
        SOURCEREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Source_Readiness.html: source coverage, credential slots, access checks, smokes, rate policies, and raw assets"]
        COVERAGEREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Component_Signal_Coverage.html: component_signal, matured outcomes, training-coverage highlights, and review-only promotion triage by component/horizon"]
        APPHEALTHREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Application_Run_Health.html: application run status, degraded reasons, recovered failures, and operator actions"]
        STORAGEREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Data_Lake_Storage_Health.html: D-drive capacity, D:/DataLake footprint, public report footprint, Docker storage footprint, and PostgreSQL logical size"]
        FRESHREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Data_Lake_Freshness.html: raw source landing freshness, provider activity, curated dataset freshness, and operator actions"]
        EFFREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Provider_Request_Efficiency.html: source/endpoint cache hit rates, remote calls, repeated fingerprints, failures, rate limits, entitlement recovery, bandwidth, and operator actions"]
        HEALTHREPORT["D:/Public Reports/Pipeline_Health.html: stable dashboard for scheduler recovery, queue state, source/provider guardrails, report freshness, and schema checks"]
        MACHINE["Machine outputs: parquet, json, csv, SQL views for apps and AI"]
    end

    FMP --> RAW
    SEC --> RAW
    NEWS --> RAW
    GOV --> RAW
    OFFGOV --> RAW
    MACRO --> RAW
    BLS --> RAW
    TREASURY --> RAW
    CENSUS --> RAW
    FACTORSRC --> RAW
    ENERGY --> RAW
    CFTC --> RAW
    FUTURES --> RAW
    TRADE --> RAW
    IDS --> RAW
    LEGACY --> RAW
    SCHEDULECTRL --> RAW
    SCHEDULECTRL --> APPSTEPLOG
    CREDCTRL -. "blocks required missing credentials; surfaces optional gaps, source checks, and landed raw-asset evidence" .-> RAW
    RATECTRL -. "paces provider calls across parallel workers" .-> RAW
    DEDUPCTRL -. "prevents repeated historical calls" .-> RAW
    RAW --> CURATED
    CURATED --> CONTRACT
    CURATED --> GRAPHSTORE
    RAW --> HEALTHCTRL
    CURATED --> HEALTHCTRL
    APPSTEPLOG --> HEALTHCTRL

    CURATED --> MARKOV
    MARKOV --> NEURAL
    CURATED --> FUND
    CURATED --> GOVRISK
    CURATED --> NEWSAGG
    CURATED --> GOVSIGNAL
    MARKOV --> CONTRACT
    NEURAL --> CONTRACT
    FUND --> CONTRACT
    GOVRISK --> CONTRACT
    NEWSAGG --> CONTRACT
    GOVSIGNAL --> CONTRACT

    SEC --> SECDETAIL
    NEWS --> NEWSDETAIL
    NEWSDETAIL --> FORECASTER
    CURATED --> RELGRAPH
    GRAPHSTORE --> RELGRAPH
    OFFGOV -. "verified source access; next extraction layer" .-> GOVPOLICY
    GOVPOLICY -. "policy, politician, committee, docket, donor relationships" .-> RELGRAPH
    RELGRAPH --> RELTRAIN
    SECDETAIL -. "visible, review-only" .-> REPORT
    NEWSDETAIL -. "visible, mostly unweighted" .-> REPORT
    FORECASTER -. "visible, review-only" .-> REPORT
    RELGRAPH -. "context, not champion-weighted" .-> REPORT
    RELTRAIN -. "training gate" .-> MACHINE
    RELTRAIN -. "review-only bridge" .-> RELSCORE
    CURATED --> VISAPP

    RELSCORE -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    RELSCORE -. "promote when validated" .-> RELPROMOTE
    MACRO --> MACROVIEW
    BLS --> BLSLABOR
    BLS -. "mapped inflation and aggregate labor contributors; latest-revised, not vintage-safe" .-> MACROVIEW
    BLSLABOR -. "30 latest labor target signals; sector labor cost/activity context" .-> MACROVIEW
    BLSLABOR -. "sector/company labor-market and labor-cost edges" .-> RELGRAPH
    TREASURY -. "mapped fiscal/debt/tariff contributors; inferred fiscal edges review-only" .-> MACROVIEW
    CENSUS -. "direct EITS live; 176 series / 90,060 stored observation-vintage rows; QSS expanded to 57 service categories, plus retail, manufacturing, wholesale, VIP construction, BFS formation, housing, and trade; FRED mirrors already mapped" .-> MACROVIEW
    CENSUS --> CENSUSVIEW
    ENERGY --> ENERGYVIEW
    MACRO -. "BEA input-output" .-> BEAVIEW
    TRADE -. "Comtrade and TiVA" .-> TRADEVIEW
    IDS --> IDVIEW
    SECDETAIL --> SECXBRLVIEW
    SEC --> SECSTMTDATA
    SEC --> SECNOTESDATA
    SECSTMTDATA --> SECXBRLVIEW
    SECNOTESDATA --> SECDETAIL
    SECNOTESDATA --> SECXBRLVIEW
    SECNOTESDATA --> SECNOTESMODEL
    SECNOTESMODEL --> SECDETAIL
    FORECASTER --> ANALYSTVIEW
    CURATED --> VALDATA
    FMP --> FMPBULKDATA
    FMPBULKDATA --> VALDATA
    FMPBULKDATA -. "reduces future symbol-by-symbol pulls after entitlement" .-> FMPBULKGAP
    CURATED --> FACTORDATA
    FACTORSRC --> FACTORDATA
    FMP --> VALDATA
    CFTC --> VALDATA
    FUTURES --> VALDATA
    VALDATA --> FORWARDEST
    VALDATA --> CAPRETURN
    SECSTMTDATA --> CAPRETURN
    VALDATA --> OWNERSHIPMA
    VALDATA --> COTPOS
    VALDATA --> FUTURECURVE
    FUTURES --> FUTURECURVE
    OWNERSHIPMA --> OWNERCONTROL
    VISAPP --> MACROVIEW
    VISAPP --> CENSUSVIEW
    VISAPP --> ENERGYVIEW
    VISAPP --> BEAVIEW
    VISAPP --> IDVIEW
    VISAPP --> SECXBRLVIEW
    VISAPP --> SEGMENTFOUND
    VISAPP --> OWNERCONTROL
    VISAPP --> ANALYSTVIEW
    FORWARDEST --> ANALYSTVIEW
    COTPOS --> ENERGYVIEW
    FUTURECURVE --> ENERGYVIEW
    FUTURECURVE --> VALAPP
    FUTURECURVE --> COMMODITYVAL
    RELGRAPH --> COMMODITYVAL
    TRADEVIEW --> RELGRAPH
    TRADEVIEW --> GRAPHSTORE
    CURATED --> PRICEFACTOR
    CURATED --> HISTALPHA
    SECDETAIL --> HISTALPHA
    CURATED --> VALAPP
    VALDATA --> VALAPP
    FACTORDATA --> VALAPP
    SECSTMTDATA --> VALAPP
    SECNOTESDATA --> VALAPP
    SECNOTESMODEL --> VALAPP
    FUND --> VALAPP
    VALAPP --> RELMULT
    VALAPP --> CASHVAL
    VALAPP --> ASSETVAL
    VALAPP --> GRAHAMVAL
    VALAPP --> QUALITYVAL
    VALAPP --> CLASSICVAL
    VALAPP --> FACTORVAL
    FACTORDATA --> FACTORATTR
    FACTORATTR --> FACTORVAL
    VALAPP --> INCOMEVAL
    CAPRETURN --> BUYBACKVAL
    SECSTMTDATA --> BUYBACKVAL
    VALAPP --> BUYBACKVAL
    VALAPP --> FORWARDVAL
    MACRO --> COSTCAP
    FACTORATTR --> COSTCAP
    VALAPP --> COSTCAP
    FORWARDEST --> REVDCF
    COSTCAP --> REVDCF
    VALAPP --> REVDCF
    FORWARDEST --> EXPLDCF
    COSTCAP --> EXPLDCF
    VALAPP --> EXPLDCF
    SECSTMTDATA --> SECFINQUAL
    VALAPP --> SECFINQUAL
    SECSTMTDATA --> SECALTMAN
    VALAPP --> SECALTMAN
    SECSTMTDATA --> SECBENEISH
    VALAPP --> SECBENEISH
    VALAPP --> COMMODITYVAL
    ENERGYVIEW --> COMMODITYINV
    COTPOS --> COMMODITYINV
    VALAPP --> COMMODITYINV
    SECSTMTDATA --> SEGMENTFOUND
    SECNOTESDATA --> SEGMENTFOUND
    SECNOTESMODEL --> SEGMENTFOUND
    SEGMENTFOUND --> VALAPP
    SEGMENTFOUND --> SEGMENTVAL
    VALAPP --> SEGMENTVAL
    OWNERSHIPMA --> MNAVAL
    VALAPP --> MNAVAL
    VALAPP --> MOMCONFIRM
    CONTRACT --> OUTCOME
    CURATED --> OUTCOME
    OUTCOME --> RESTACK
    OUTCOME --> COVERAGETRIAGE
    OUTCOME -. "today's matured evaluation feed" .-> TRAINSTATUS
    COVERAGETRIAGE -. "positive, inverse/risk, validate-in-stack, and low-sample review buckets" .-> RESTACK
    COVERAGETRIAGE -. "triage before any manual promotion" .-> STACKPROMOTE
    RESTACK -. "research-only challenger weights" .-> MACHINE
    RESTACK -. "visible training review" .-> REPORT
    RESTACK -. "five research challengers refreshed; one h21 policy review-ready; no production promotion" .-> TRAINSTATUS
    RESTACK -. "promote only after gates pass" .-> STACKPROMOTE
    TRAINSTATUS -. "gated by operator review, leakage, sector/stability, and horizon date checks" .-> STACKPROMOTE
    PRICEFACTOR -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    PRICEFACTOR -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    PRICEFACTOR -. "machine research output" .-> MACHINE
    PRICEFACTOR -. "promote when validated" .-> PRICEPROMOTE
    HISTALPHA -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    HISTALPHA -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    HISTALPHA -. "machine research output" .-> MACHINE
    HISTALPHA -. "promote when validated" .-> ALPHAPROMOTE
    MACROVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    CENSUSVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    ENERGYVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    BEAVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    TRADEVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    IDVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    SECXBRLVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    SECNOTESMODEL -. "disabled review-only component rows" .-> CONTRACT
    SEGMENTFOUND -. "disabled review-only component rows" .-> CONTRACT
    SEGMENTFOUND -. "feature evidence and SOTP readiness" .-> MACHINE
    SEGMENTVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    SECFINQUAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    SECALTMAN -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    SECBENEISH -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    MNAVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    OWNERCONTROL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    ANALYSTVIEW -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    RELMULT -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    CASHVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    ASSETVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    GRAHAMVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    QUALITYVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    CLASSICVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    FACTORVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    FACTORATTR -. "disabled review-only component rows" .-> CONTRACT
    FACTORATTR -. "training and attribution only" .-> MACHINE
    INCOMEVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    BUYBACKVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    FORWARDVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    COSTCAP -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    REVDCF -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    EXPLDCF -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    COMMODITYVAL -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    COMMODITYINV -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    MOMCONFIRM -. "disabled for rank cutoff" .-> CONTRACT
    MACROVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    CENSUSVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    ENERGYVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    BEAVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    TRADEVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    IDVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    SECXBRLVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    SECSTMTDATA -. "source coverage in data-flow map" .-> REPORT
    SECNOTESDATA -. "source coverage in data-flow map" .-> REPORT
    SECNOTESMODEL -. "visible SEC note evidence" .-> REPORT
    SEGMENTFOUND -. "visible segment/SOTP evidence" .-> REPORT
    SEGMENTVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    SECFINQUAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    SECALTMAN -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    SECBENEISH -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    MNAVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    OWNERCONTROL -. "visible ownership/control evidence" .-> REPORT
    ANALYSTVIEW -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    FORWARDEST -. "visible as valuation input" .-> REPORT
    CAPRETURN -. "visible as valuation input" .-> REPORT
    OWNERSHIPMA -. "visible as risk/value evidence" .-> REPORT
    COTPOS -. "visible as commodity exposure evidence" .-> REPORT
    FUTURECURVE -. "visible as curve source evidence" .-> REPORT
    RELMULT -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    CASHVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    ASSETVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    GRAHAMVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    QUALITYVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    CLASSICVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    FACTORVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    FACTORDATA -. "source coverage in data-flow map" .-> REPORT
    FACTORATTR -. "visible attribution evidence" .-> REPORT
    INCOMEVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    BUYBACKVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    FORWARDVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    COSTCAP -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    REVDCF -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    EXPLDCF -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    COMMODITYVAL -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    COMMODITYINV -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    MOMCONFIRM -. "visible in deep dive" .-> REPORT
    RELPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    MACROVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> MACROPROMOTE
    CENSUSVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> CENSUSPROMOTE
    ENERGYVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> ENERGYPROMOTE
    BEAVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> BEAPROMOTE
    TRADEVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> TRADEPROMOTE
    IDVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> IDPROMOTE
    SECXBRLVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> SECXBRLPROMOTE
    SEGMENTFOUND -. "promote when validated" .-> SEGMENTPROMOTE
    SEGMENTVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    SECFINQUAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    SECALTMAN -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    SECBENEISH -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    MNAVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    SEGMENTPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    OWNERCONTROL -. "promote when validated" .-> OWNERPROMOTE
    OWNERPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    ANALYSTVIEW -. "promote when validated" .-> ANALYSTPROMOTE
    HISTALPHA -. "evaluated when horizons mature" .-> OUTCOME
    RELMULT -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    CASHVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    ASSETVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    GRAHAMVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    QUALITYVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    CLASSICVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    FACTORATTR -. "promote when validated" .-> FACTORPROMOTE
    FACTORPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    FACTORVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    INCOMEVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    BUYBACKVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    FORWARDVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    COSTCAP -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    REVDCF -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    EXPLDCF -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    COMMODITYVAL -. "promote when validated" .-> COMMODITYPROMOTE
    COMMODITYINV -. "promote when validated" .-> COMMODITYPROMOTE
    COMMODITYPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    MOMCONFIRM -. "promote when validated" .-> VALPROMOTE
    VALDATAGAP -. "feeds new provider/API requests" .-> VALDATA
    VALDATAGAP -. "future normalized inputs" .-> VALAPP
    MACROPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    CENSUSPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    ENERGYPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    BEAPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    TRADEPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    IDPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    SECXBRLPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    ANALYSTPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    PRICEPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    ALPHAPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT
    STACKPROMOTE -. "future champion/challenger weights" .-> CONTRACT

    CONTRACT -. "date coverage and score-backfill readiness" .-> SCOREHIST
    SCOREHIST -. "feeds consolidated promotion gate" .-> PROMOREADY
    COVERAGETRIAGE -. "component-level training candidates and orientation checks" .-> PROMOREADY
    RELTRAIN -. "feeds consolidated promotion gate" .-> PROMOREADY
    RESTACK -. "feeds consolidated promotion gate" .-> PROMOREADY
    CONTRACT --> ENSEMBLE
    SCOREHIST -. "optimizer history gate evidence" .-> PAPER
    PROMOREADY -. "operator review and promotion blockers" .-> REPORT
    PROMOREADY --> PROMOREPORT
    ENSEMBLE --> PAPER
    ENSEMBLE --> THESISBOARD
    ENSEMBLE --> WATERFALL
    CONTRACT -. "latest champion and review-only rows" .-> REVIEWBOARD
    THESISBOARD --> REPORT
    WATERFALL --> REPORT
    REVIEWBOARD --> REPORT
    ENSEMBLE --> REPORT
    PAPER --> REPORT
    CONTRACT --> MACHINE
    ENSEMBLE --> MACHINE
    HEALTHCTRL --> HTML
    HEALTHCTRL -. "operator state, source readiness, source-access checks, and credential gaps" .-> REPORT
    HEALTHCTRL --> SOURCEREPORT
    OUTCOME --> COVERAGEREPORT
    COVERAGETRIAGE --> COVERAGEREPORT
    CONTRACT --> COVERAGEREPORT
    HEALTHCTRL --> APPHEALTHREPORT
    APPSTEPLOG --> APPHEALTHREPORT
    RAW --> STORAGEREPORT
    CURATED --> STORAGEREPORT
    HEALTHCTRL --> STORAGEREPORT
    RAW --> FRESHREPORT
    CURATED --> FRESHREPORT
    SQLSTATCTRL --> FRESHREPORT
    HEALTHCTRL --> FRESHREPORT
    RATECTRL --> EFFREPORT
    DEDUPCTRL --> EFFREPORT
    RAW --> EFFREPORT
    HEALTHCTRL --> EFFREPORT
    HEALTHCTRL --> HEALTHREPORT
    APPSTEPLOG -. "per-step runtime and failure evidence" .-> REPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> REPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> HTML
    PUBLICGUARD --> PROMOREPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> SOURCEREPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> COVERAGEREPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> APPHEALTHREPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> STORAGEREPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> FRESHREPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> EFFREPORT
    PUBLICGUARD --> HEALTHREPORT
    HTML --> REPORT

    class FMP,SEC,NEWS,GOV,MACRO,BLS,TREASURY,CENSUS,FACTORSRC,ENERGY,CFTC,FUTURES,TRADE,IDS,LEGACY source
    class RAW,CURATED,CONTRACT,GRAPHSTORE storage
    class SCHEDULECTRL,CREDCTRL,RATECTRL,DEDUPCTRL,APPSTEPLOG,SQLSTATCTRL,HEALTHCTRL,PUBLICGUARD,SCOREHIST,PROMOREADY control
    class MARKOV,NEURAL,FUND,GOVRISK,NEWSAGG,GOVSIGNAL weighted
    class SECDETAIL,NEWSDETAIL,FORECASTER,RELGRAPH,RELTRAIN,RELSCORE,VISAPP,MACROVIEW,CENSUSVIEW,BLSLABOR,ENERGYVIEW,BEAVIEW,TRADEVIEW,IDVIEW,SECXBRLVIEW,SECSTMTDATA,SECNOTESDATA,SECNOTESMODEL,SEGMENTFOUND,OWNERCONTROL,ANALYSTVIEW,VALDATA,FMPBULKDATA,FACTORDATA,FORWARDEST,CAPRETURN,OWNERSHIPMA,COTPOS,FUTURECURVE,COMMODITYVAL,COMMODITYINV,PRICEFACTOR,HISTALPHA,VALAPP,OUTCOME,RESTACK,RELMULT,CASHVAL,ASSETVAL,GRAHAMVAL,QUALITYVAL,CLASSICVAL,FACTORVAL,FACTORATTR,INCOMEVAL,BUYBACKVAL,FORWARDVAL,COSTCAP,REVDCF,EXPLDCF,SECFINQUAL,SECALTMAN,SECBENEISH,SEGMENTVAL,MNAVAL,MOMCONFIRM review
    class RELPROMOTE,MACROPROMOTE,CENSUSPROMOTE,ENERGYPROMOTE,BEAPROMOTE,TRADEPROMOTE,IDPROMOTE,SECXBRLPROMOTE,SEGMENTPROMOTE,OWNERPROMOTE,ANALYSTPROMOTE,PRICEPROMOTE,ALPHAPROMOTE,FACTORPROMOTE,COMMODITYPROMOTE,VALPROMOTE,STACKPROMOTE,TRAINSTATUS,VALDATAGAP,FMPBULKGAP gap
    class ENSEMBLE,PAPER,THESISBOARD,WATERFALL decision
    class REVIEWBOARD review
    class REPORT,HTML,PROMOREPORT,SOURCEREPORT,COVERAGEREPORT,APPHEALTHREPORT,STORAGEREPORT,FRESHREPORT,EFFREPORT,HEALTHREPORT,MACHINE output

Source / Layer	What Data Is It?	Application Or Model	Status In Rank	What It Decides	Report Evidence
FMP market/fundamental API	Prices, profiles, statements, ratios, fundamentals, calendars, some analyst/news data	Fundamental Research; Markov Stock State Engine; Stock Valuation Model Lab	Core fundamental blend weighted today; valuation lab review-only	Valuation, quality, liquidity, dilution, peer set, price history, multi-horizon states, separated valuation-school evidence	Fundamental Value, Price History, Markov Detail, Peer Comparison, Decision And Valuation Review Models
Valuation data foundation	FMP analyst estimates, dividends, beneficial ownership, M&A event parties/dates/SEC links, CFTC COT rows, EIA inventory/energy signals, Databento futures curves, SEC annual statement facts	Stock Valuation Model Lab	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Forward estimate value, capital return, private-market M&A activity, commodity carry/value, commodity inventory/positioning value, cost-of-capital, reverse-DCF and explicit scenario DCF context, SEC financial quality, Altman solvency, and Beneish accounting quality	Decision And Valuation Review Models, Capital Return, M&A Private-Market Activity, Commodity Carry/Value, Commodity Inventory/Positioning, SEC Statement Quality/Altman/Beneish, Explicit DCF Scenario
SEC EDGAR	Filing metadata, official links, submission history, filing text, XBRL company facts	SEC/Governance Aggregate; SEC Modular Families	Aggregate weighted; modular families visible/review-only	Governance risk, related-party/control language, material-weakness/restatement risk, filing evidence status	SEC Filing Metadata, Governance Risk, SEC Modular Review Signals
News/event feeds	Factual headlines, company events, opinion and forecast articles, publisher and author attribution	News/Event Intelligence; Event Family Split; Forecaster Reliability Overlay	Aggregate weighted; event families and forecaster reliability mostly review-only	Event score, factual vs opinion/forecast classification, publisher/author reliability hooks	Recent News And Event Influence, News Review Signals, Forecaster Track Record
Government trade disclosures	Government and congressional buy/sell filings, amounts, dates, filer identity	Government Trade Signal	Weighted today, intentionally small	Recent buy/sell pressure and filer track-record weighted signal	Government Trade Evidence, Government Trade Signal In Top 15
Curated price lake	Point-in-time adjusted-close history by symbol	Markov/Neural models; paper ledger; outcome evaluators	Weighted today and used for training outcomes	Up/flat/down probabilities, expected returns, trailing returns, paper-position returns	Markov Multi-Horizon Detail, Neural Horizon, Price History, Paper Positions
Curated historical prices	Old adjusted-close and volume histories	Historical Price Factor Lab	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Momentum, reversal, volatility, trend, drawdown, and liquidity alpha trained/tested on old data	Historical Price Factor Lab summary; Decision And Valuation Review Models
Curated historical fundamentals, events, and filings	Old quarterly statements, ratios, key metrics, earnings surprises, dividends, and SEC filing metadata	Historical Alpha Model Lab	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Fundamental-factor, earnings-surprise, dividend-policy, and filing-event alpha trained/tested on old data	Historical Alpha Model Lab summary; Decision And Valuation Review Models
FRED/ALFRED, BEA, EIA	Macro vintages, economic accounts, input-output data, energy series	Macro graph signals; energy graph signals; Stock Decision Visibility Models	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Sector/entity/macro exposures, input-output dependency, energy/commodity pressure	Decision Visibility Review Models; Relationship context
UN Comtrade and OECD TiVA	Country-commodity import/export observations; country-country export/import/value-added partner shares	Trade/Value-Chain Graph; Relationship Graph; Stock Decision Visibility Models	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Commodity trade dependency, import origin exposure, export-market dependence, and foreign value-added exposure	Relationship context; future Trade/Value-Chain review signals
OpenFIGI and GLEIF	Security identifiers, legal entities, LEI/ISIN relationships, parent-child links	Identity and relationship graph; Stock Decision Visibility Models	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Identifier integrity, issuer/security matching, corporate structure complexity	Identity/Corporate Structure Risk row in Decision Visibility Review Models
Provider control plane	Credential readiness, source readiness with raw-asset landing evidence, source-access checks, candidate provider smokes, provider request efficiency, entitlement recovery, rate policies, request leases, bandwidth guard, request cache, fetch coverage, task idempotency, scheduled-application step summaries, and pipeline health	Daily Updater; Scheduled Application Wrapper; Source Readiness; Provider Request Efficiency; Source Access Checks; Candidate Provider Smoke; Pipeline Health; Source Expansion Workers	Operational gate, not a rank signal	Prevents missing credentials, repeated calls, provider overrun, stale queues, active entitlement retry loops, silent access failures, and public report buildup	Data-flow diagram, latest pipeline health, scheduled-application JSON summaries, source/provider readiness context
Component training coverage	Component signals, current eligibility, matured outcome evaluations, enabled outcome-covered inputs, review-only outcome-covered inputs, sparse inputs, awaiting-outcome inputs, and centralized promotion-triage buckets	Component Signal Coverage report; Model Promotion Readiness; Stock Opportunity Ensemble research stack	Operational training gate, not a rank signal	Shows which model inputs can be trained, which need more outcome history, and which review-only families have enough evidence for validation work	D:/Public Reports/Component_Signal_Coverage.html; research.component_signal_coverage_operator_view; research.component_signal_promotion_triage_operator_view; promotion-readiness report
SEC XBRL companyfacts	Official fact tags, values, filing dates, periods, units	SEC XBRL Reconciliation Signal	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Missing/stale facts, leverage anomalies, cash/liability pressure, FMP-vs-SEC mismatch	SEC XBRL Reconciliation row in Decision Visibility Review Models
Opinion and forecast attribution	Forecast origin, organization, author, event key, matured hit rate, signed return capture	Analyst/Forecaster Alpha	Visible/review-only; disabled for champion rank	Which forecasters appear helpful or harmful before promotion	Analyst/Forecaster Alpha row plus Forecaster Track Record Context
Relationship graph	Companies, sectors, people, policy, macro, commodities, SEC concepts, news events, model-signal entities	Relationship Graph; Relationship Family Weight Training; Relationship Exposure Score	Visible/review-only bridge until enough validated outcomes exist	Graph exposure observations, relationship families, trained challenger weights, review-only component signals	Relationship context and future Relationship Exposure promotion
research.component_signal	Normalized score, confidence, horizon, freshness, eligibility for each model input	Stock Opportunity Ensemble	Only champion-weighted rows affect rank	Weighted contribution, missingness, eligibility, aggregate rank	Thesis, Decision Matrix, Component Contribution Waterfall, Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board, Weighted Components, Top 15 Rank
Paper strategy ledger	Recommendation runs, positions, outcomes, strategy definitions	Paper Strategy Optimizer	Evaluates strategy, does not silently promote	Which top <=15 candidates to track and how strategy variants perform	Paper Strategy Top 15, Open Paper Positions, optimizer reports

Current Decision Gates

Freshness gate: stale data stays visible but lowers trust.
Eligibility gate: excluded/review rows can be shown for research but do not become clean paper candidates.
Missingness gate: missing component-horizon rows score neutral with reduced confidence and are shown explicitly.
Weight gate: every model enters the ensemble through research.ensemble_policy_weight, not hidden report logic.
Outcome gate: challenger weights and paper strategies must mature through observed forward returns before promotion.
Provider gate: required credentials, provider leases, cache/coverage checks, and bandwidth limits must pass before acquisition expands.

Diagram-First Separation Rules

Every important diagram box should map to one application, one model family, or one report-output contract.
A box is not treated as a real rank input until it publishes research.component_signal rows and has visible champion or challenger weights.
Rich evidence can appear in the report before it is rank-weighted, but the table must label it as review-only or under-used.
New data sources should first land in raw/curated storage, then get a separate model box, then enter the ensemble only after outcome tracking exists.

Trainable Weight Review

Production Challenger

Challenger status: insufficient_data
Reason: minimum_training_rows_not_met
Matured training rows: 153
Distinct matured dates: 6

Research Challenger Expansion

Research status: challengers_created
Research challengers refreshed/created: 4
Research scope/horizon skips: 8
Reason:
New weighting policies remain challengers until their time-ordered validation record supports promotion.

Paper Strategy Top 15

Paper Rank	Symbol	Opportunity Rank	Score	Confidence	Expected Return	Sector
1	ASA	1	60.15	0.6523	-0.0047	Financial Services
2	FSM	2	59.70	0.6610	0.0083	Basic Materials
3	B	3	59.34	0.6510	-0.0004	Basic Materials
4	TNK	4	59.32	0.6276	-0.0138	Industrials
5	CASH	5	59.29	0.6159	0.0016	Financial Services
6	STNG	6	59.26	0.6329	-0.0168	Energy
7	ARIS	7	59.25	0.6564	-0.0047	Basic Materials
8	KGC	8	59.04	0.6709	0.0083	Basic Materials
9	PAAS	9	58.83	0.6618	0.0083	Basic Materials
10	AEM	10	58.81	0.6607	0.0083	Basic Materials
11	DMLP	11	58.78	0.6364	0.0092	Energy
12	IAG	12	58.68	0.6729	-0.0047	Basic Materials
13	SII	13	58.45	0.6390	-0.0047	Financial Services
14	HCI	14	58.38	0.6211	0.0004	Financial Services
15	NEM	15	58.28	0.6492	0.0006	Basic Materials

Government Trade Signal In Top 15

Symbol	Gov Score	Confidence	Recent Buys	Recent Sells	Top Filers
ASA	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
FSM	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
B	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
TNK	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
CASH	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
STNG	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
ARIS	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
KGC	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
PAAS	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
AEM	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
DMLP	0.1733	0.3222	1	0	August Lee Pfluger II
IAG	-0.2644	0.3720	0	1	Brian Babin
SII	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
HCI	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a
NEM	0.0000	0.0500	0	0	n/a

Open Paper Positions

Symbol	Opened	Entry Price	Latest Price	Paper Return	Strategy
CASH	2026-06-02	81.41	81.00	-0.0050	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
ARIS	2026-06-10	14.22	17.08	0.2011	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
ASA	2026-06-10	52.40	59.34	0.1324	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
B	2026-06-10	37.19	41.29	0.1102	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
FSM	2026-06-10	8.09	9.43	0.1656	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
HCI	2026-06-10	161.23	164.54	0.0205	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
IAG	2026-06-10	14.84	17.58	0.1846	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
STNG	2026-06-10	76.46	78.04	0.0207	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
WDC	2026-06-15	653.53	712.13	0.0897	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
AEM	2026-06-17	172.99	172.99	0.0000	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
DMLP	2026-06-17	25.83	25.83	0.0000	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
KGC	2026-06-17	27.28	27.28	0.0000	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
PAAS	2026-06-17	50.46	50.46	0.0000	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
SII	2026-06-17	128.69	128.69	0.0000	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)
TNK	2026-06-17	73.93	73.93	0.0000	top_ranked_long:seed_v1 (active)

Machine Outputs

Parquet: D:\DataLake\exports\applications\stock_opportunity_ensemble\latest\stock-opportunity-scores.parquet
PostgreSQL: research.stock_opportunity_latest
Latest preview or active shortlist: paper.recommendation_latest
Active paper shortlist only: paper.active_recommendation_latest

On-Demand Deep Dive

.\scripts\get-stock-opportunity-report.ps1 -Symbol AAPL

Full Top 15 Stock Deep Dives

The following sections include every registered evidence layer currently available to the report: thesis, model decision data, fundamentals, liquidity/dilution, peers, SEC/governance, news/events, price history, Markov/neural horizons, government-trade evidence, forecaster track records, and verification notes.

ASA

Research Thesis

Thesis: ASA has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 60.15 and confidence 0.6523. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0863; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0441; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0420. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0058.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0863; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0441; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0420
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0058
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 1
Aggregate score: 60.15
Prediction score: 60.15
Confidence: 0.6523
Expected return estimate: -0.0047
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Asset Management
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.4448; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0863	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.5689; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0441	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1031; confidence 0.4541; expected return -0.0047	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0420	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1836; confidence 0.4983	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0321	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.1500; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0058	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.1467; confidence 0.8835	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0043	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0863	+##......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0441	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0420	+#.......................	0.4541	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0321	+#.......................	0.4983	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0058	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0043	+#.......................	0.8835	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.5689	0.0441	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.4448	0.0863	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.1500	-0.0058	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1119	0.0137	0.4851	0.0089
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1085	0.0110	0.4666	0.0065
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0732	0.0060	0.4270	-0.0016
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1010	0.0062	0.4168	-0.0185
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1266	0.0052	0.4398	-0.0586
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1597	0.0084	0.5241
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.2055	0.0090	0.5271
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1348	0.0047	0.4515
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2038	0.0053	0.4553
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2678	0.0047	0.5070
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.1467	0.0043	0.8835

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0863 (signal 0.4448, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0441 (signal 0.5689, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0137 (signal 0.1119, confidence 0.4851)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0110 (signal 0.1085, confidence 0.4666)
neural_market_horizon h5 weighted 0.0090 (signal 0.2055, confidence 0.5271)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6523.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0058 (signal -0.1500, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

These rows expose knowledge that exists in the lake but is not necessarily driving the top-15 rank. rank-weighted means the component is already in the champion contribution table; enabled-underused means rows exist but were not visible in this candidate's weighted contribution table; review-only means the component definition is disabled pending validation.

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6379	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2000	0.6467	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: negative review features: proxy_contest, super_voting; positive review features: beneficial_owner_increase; recent activity forms: 13F-HR, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1250	0.5456	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: shelf_registration; recent activity forms: 144.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.3300	0.2000	unknown/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	facts 0, latest filing n/a, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts, missing_latest_filed_date
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-04-28	21	-0.1394	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-28	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0375	0.5078	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: positive review features: reg_fd_update; recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4, 5.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 0/5, suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 0/8, quality pct , suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 0/0, quality pct , latest n/a
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5400	0.7660	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.5600	0.7266	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=6
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.5205	0.7328	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=4
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.7400	0.2053	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5800	0.2553	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_operational_labor_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.5800	0.2422	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.2073	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1311	0.2073	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=1
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.0000	0.5074	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=6
News / Forecast	news_earnings_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.0000	0.5074	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=18
News / Forecast	news_macro_sector_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.0000	0.1627	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=1
Valuation	residual_income_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.9376	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 0.9163, FCF yield , ROIC 0.4036
Valuation	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.9956	0.8000	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0614, yield spread 1.6894, beta 0.2504
Valuation	magic_formula_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.7361	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.4036, EV/EBITDA 2.2753, FCF yield 0.0000

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-16	848	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	6	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-20 08:30:53+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-04-21 04:52:56+00:00	44	3 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	24	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited
Classification: Financials / Financials / Credit Candidate
Scoring model: Financials
Financial statement date: 2025-11-30
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$61.81	Market cap	$1.17B
P/E	0.57	P/S	7.52
P/B	0.92	P/FCF	n/a
FCF yield	0.0%	Revenue growth YoY	98.6%
Gross margin	97.7%	Operating margin	100.0%
Net margin	100.0%	ROE	40.1%
Debt / equity	0.00	Current ratio	6.28
Net cash / market cap	0.4%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$4.73M

Score	Value
Valuation	70.52
Growth	95.50
Profitability	98.71
Balance sheet	84.26
Cash flow	35.31
Total fundamental	74.24
Basic risk flags	20.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	72.24

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 0.57.
Trades below book value: P/B 0.92.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 98.6%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

Very low P/E - possible value trap or cyclical peak earnings

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: -1.2%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: 0.0%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
HQH	1	yes	$1.13B	60.57	1.46	50.00	0.92	0.0%
TRIN	2	yes	$1.28B	62.06	6.76	14.77	1.05	1.2%
GSBD	3	yes	$1.03B	40.32	n/a	12.73	0.73	0.8%
OXLC	4	yes	$971.61M	47.15	n/a	5.72	0.92	26.2%
VRTS	5	yes	$964.50M	42.49	31.54	4.83	0.98	3.7%
CSWC	6	yes	$1.45B	42.67	11.63	23.67	1.26	-4.7%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-16	PX14A6G	2026-06-16 20:30:16+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026069282/0001213900-26-069282-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026069282/ea0295015-px14a6g_asagold.htm)
2026-06-16	PX14A6G	2026-06-16 16:30:16+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026069282/0001213900-26-069282-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026069282/ea0295015-px14a6g_asagold.htm)
2026-06-10	5	2026-06-10 13:00:03+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026067096/0001213900-26-067096-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026067096/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-10	5	2026-06-10 09:00:03+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026067096/0001213900-26-067096-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026067096/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-05-28	SCHEDULE 13D/A	2026-05-28 16:26:23+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002913/0001062993-26-002913-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002913/xslSCHEDULE_13D_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-28	SC 13D/A	2026-05-28 12:26:23+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002913/0001062993-26-002913-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002913/xslSCHEDULE_13D_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-14	SCHEDULE 13D/A	2026-05-14 21:51:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002646/0001062993-26-002646-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002646/xslSCHEDULE_13D_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-14	SC 13D/A	2026-05-14 17:51:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002646/0001062993-26-002646-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000106299326002646/xslSCHEDULE_13D_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-11	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-11 16:46:52+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000089542126000132/0000895421-26-000132-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000089542126000132/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-11	SC 13G/A	2026-05-11 12:46:52+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000089542126000132/0000895421-26-000132-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000132/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 15.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Control	Accounting Boilerplate
1	8-K	0	0
2	DEF 14A	1	1
3	DEF 14A	0	0
4	DEF 14A	0	0

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 6
Latest article: 2026-06-20 08:30:53+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.1467
Confidence: 0.8835
Top event classes: issuer_release, corporate_action, capital_return, market_opinion
Publisher mix: issuer_wire_release: 3, market_analysis: 2, unknown: 1
Summary: 6 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (5 factual/mixed, 1 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.147; top events: issuer_release, corporate_action, capital_return.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
corporate_action	0.7400	0.6160	0.7400	unknown	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
capital_return	0.5800	0.7660	0.5800	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
market_opinion	organization	Defense World	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-20 08:30:53+00:00	factual_event	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.1850	commodities_mining	Flax Pond Capital LLC Acquires New Position in ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited $ASA
2026-06-11 16:05:00+00:00	factual_event	businesswire.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.1350	commodities_mining	ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited Announces Resignation of Axel Merk as Chief Operating Officer of the Fund
2026-05-24 09:44:22+00:00	unknown	fool.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0000	commodities_mining	What to Know About This Fund's $10 Million Bet on Gold Miners
2026-04-30 08:00:00+00:00	factual_event	businesswire.com	positive	0.8000	0.3233	commodities_mining, ma_buyback_dividend	ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited Announces Reauthorization of Share Repurchase Program
2026-04-21 04:52:56+00:00	opinion_forecast	defenseworld.net	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0000	commodities_mining	ASA Gold and Precious Metals (NYSE:ASA) Stock Passes Above 50 Day Moving Average – Should You Sell?
2026-03-31 19:01:00+00:00	factual_event	businesswire.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.1350	commodities_mining	ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited Announces 90-Day Extension of Investment Advisory Agreement

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $59.34
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	13.2%
20 sessions	-14.8%
60 sessions	-2.1%
252 sessions	80.1%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/ASA.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4851	0.1417	0.3732	0.1119	0.0089	0.4851	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4666	0.1753	0.3581	0.1085	0.0065	0.4666	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4270	0.2191	0.3539	0.0732	-0.0016	0.4270	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4168	0.2675	0.3158	0.1010	-0.0185	0.4168	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4398	0.2469	0.3132	0.1266	-0.0586	0.4398	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

The neural overlay is exposed as a separate measurable component while retaining the registered Markov application run as its source. This makes its contribution visible without duplicating inference.

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5241	0.1114	0.3644	0.1597
5	0.5271	0.1512	0.3217	0.2055
10	0.4515	0.2319	0.3166	0.1348
21	0.4553	0.2932	0.2515	0.2038
63	0.5070	0.2538	0.2392	0.2678

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Loan quality, credit-loss reserves, funding costs, net interest margin, and capital ratios.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	-0.2000	0.6467	-1	4	13F-HR, 8-K, DEF 14A, SC 13D, SC 13D/A	Low negative evidence: SEC Ownership And Control: negative review features: proxy_contest, super_voting; positive review features: beneficial_owner_increase; recent activity forms: 13F-HR, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.1250	0.5456	-1	4	144, 8-K, DEF 14A	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: shelf_registration; recent activity forms: 144.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0375	0.5078	0	4	8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: positive review features: reg_fd_update; recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	3, 4, 5, 8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4, 5.
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Accounting Quality: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Short excerpts below come from cached SEC filing assets and are review flags only, not allegations or findings. The source column points to the immutable local raw asset, SEC links when available, cache lineage, and the extractor/taxonomy version used to flag the evidence.

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
No source-context SEC snippets could be extracted from current cached filing assets

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.7400	0.2053	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.5800	0.2553	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.5400	0.7660	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.2073	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.1311	0.2073	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0314	0.2073	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	-0.0010	0.2073	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Recent government disclosures are treated as event evidence. Buys are positive direction, sells are negative direction, and filer influence is scaled by disclosed amount, recency, and matured track record.

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	1	7318	0.5259	0.0021	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	5	7259	0.5255	0.0037	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	20	6919	0.5372	0.0100	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	market_opinion	1	5633	0.5209	0.0009	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	market_opinion	5	5612	0.5198	0.0031	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	market_opinion	20	5478	0.5338	0.0101	trainable	True
Defense World	analyst_revision	20	5175	0.5024	0.0089	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0445	0.0553	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	4 feature families, 6 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0445	0.0553	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	4 feature families, 6 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0445	0.0553	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	4 feature families, 6 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0591	0.1056	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0591	0.1056	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0591	0.1056	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.5821	0.0116	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.5821	0.0116	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.5821	0.0116	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.3807	0.6500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles requirement 2.5390949; Paper products requirement 2.3757192
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.2000	0.1800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 0, auto-linked 0, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.3300	0.2000	enabled=False; unknown/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	facts 0, latest filing n/a, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts, missing_latest_filed_date
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0314	0.2073	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.4645 samples 1266
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	-0.0010	0.2073	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.5221 samples 1266
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.1311	0.2073	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.4795 samples 1266
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	-0.0012	0.2008	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0526	0.2342	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.0783	0.2509	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7321	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	relative_valuation; P/E 0.5712, P/B 0.9163, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1540	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 0.5712, peer P/E 12.8448
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0422	0.6667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0000, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7172	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 0.9163, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9499	0.6000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	graham_deep_value; Graham margin 5.5570, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff n/a
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9376	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 0.9163, FCF yield , ROIC 0.4036
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5946	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	garp_peg; growth 0.9864, PEG proxy 0.0058
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1871	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0000, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 0/0, quality pct , latest n/a
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 0/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 0/8, quality pct , suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1161	0.1900	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-01-30	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 11, latest 2026-01-30, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.9688	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.4036
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6177	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 20.0000, flags Very low P/E - possible value trap or cyclical peak earnings
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6379	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4250	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0000, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.8340	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.4036
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7361	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.4036, EV/EBITDA 2.2753, FCF yield 0.0000
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6256	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.4003, FCF yield 0.0000, share growth -0.0120
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.8713	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0000, current ratio 6.2754, net cash/market cap 0.0035
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5214	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance 0.0000, growth 0.9864
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6976	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.8660, ROIC 0.4036, market cap 1166444021
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9956	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0614, yield spread 1.6894, beta 0.2504
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7833	0.5333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle -1.6894, margin 1.8544, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.4000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin , base intrinsic/price , cash-flow yield
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff n/a, score , roots none
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff n/a, score , commodities none
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.3886	0.4168	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2025-11-30	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0185, p_up 0.4168, value pct 0.8660

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Has Rate Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0091	0.0992	1	1	current / review / inferred

FSM

Research Thesis

Thesis: FSM has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 59.70 and confidence 0.6610. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0662; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0506; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0491. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0097.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0662; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0506; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0491
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0097
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 2
Aggregate score: 59.70
Prediction score: 59.70
Confidence: 0.6610
Expected return estimate: 0.0083
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.3414; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0662	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6521; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0506	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1205; confidence 0.4714; expected return 0.0083	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0491	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1814; confidence 0.5067	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0317	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.2500; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0097	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.2078; confidence 0.8881	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0060	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0662	+##......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0506	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0491	+#.......................	0.4714	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0317	+#.......................	0.5067	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0097	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0060	+#.......................	0.8881	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6521	0.0506	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.3414	0.0662	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.2500	-0.0097	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1018	0.0124	0.4910	0.0057
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1278	0.0130	0.4821	0.0119
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.1142	0.0093	0.4600	0.0111
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1324	0.0081	0.4366	0.0072
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1531	0.0062	0.4611	0.0036
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1289	0.0067	0.5147
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1749	0.0076	0.5136
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1644	0.0057	0.4863
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2460	0.0064	0.4857
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2928	0.0051	0.5376
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.2078	0.0060	0.8881

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0662 (signal 0.3414, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0506 (signal 0.6521, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0130 (signal 0.1278, confidence 0.4821)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0124 (signal 0.1018, confidence 0.4910)
markov_state_blend h10 weighted 0.0093 (signal 0.1142, confidence 0.4600)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6610.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0097 (signal -0.2500, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-1.0000	0.8803	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=76
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-1.0000	0.8720	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=67
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.7836	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-1.0000	0.7614	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=12
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7188	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 0.8550, indices 5/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-0.6882	0.6544	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=8
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-0.4637	0.6101	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=6
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.3011	0.6417	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 2/3, quality pct 0.6506, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2444	0.6122	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, restatement.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-0.3022	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-0.1153	0.5876	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-26, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0923	0.5441	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Gold
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0571	0.5122	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0719	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.1923
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4800	0.7410	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5600	0.6112	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=4
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5372	0.6372	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=5
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4194	0.4510	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=8
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5200	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1756	0.4500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=5
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.1977	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-15	620	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-22 09:05:12.628780+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:20.610635+00:00	131	10 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Fortuna Mining Corp.
Classification: Mining / Critical Materials / Mining / Critical Materials Candidate
Scoring model: Mining
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$9.91	Market cap	$3.00B
P/E	6.83	P/S	8.85
P/B	1.71	P/FCF	18.48
FCF yield	5.4%	Revenue growth YoY	18.0%
Gross margin	61.9%	Operating margin	53.2%
Net margin	32.4%	ROE	6.3%
Debt / equity	0.12	Current ratio	3.17
Net cash / market cap	15.5%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$63.60M

Score	Value
Valuation	75.25
Growth	74.16
Profitability	84.97
Balance sheet	78.96
Cash flow	92.33
Total fundamental	67.07
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	67.07

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 6.83.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 18.0%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: 8.0%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -0.8%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
HYMC	1	yes	$3.11B	52.33	n/a	n/a	14.11	-1.0%
SA	2	yes	$3.57B	47.89	n/a	n/a	3.50	-0.6%
NG	3	yes	$3.66B	50.17	n/a	n/a	12.45	-0.1%
ORLA	4	yes	$4.30B	58.23	18.67	14.86	7.32	1.0%
SSRM	5	yes	$6.17B	66.42	n/a	10.39	1.66	2.9%
EGO	6	yes	$6.57B	56.28	12.44	12.75	1.57	-2.6%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-15	6-K	2026-06-15 14:54:49+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926073886/0001104659-26-073886-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926073886/tm2617960d1_6k.htm)
2026-06-15	6-K	2026-06-15 10:54:49+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926073886/0001104659-26-073886-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926073886/tm2617960d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-28	6-K	2026-05-28 16:06:45+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926067358/0001104659-26-067358-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926067358/tm2615901d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-28	6-K	2026-05-28 12:06:45+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926067358/0001104659-26-067358-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926067358/tm2615901d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-20	6-K	2026-05-20 17:04:27+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926064390/0001104659-26-064390-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926064390/tm2614824d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-20	6-K	2026-05-20 13:04:27+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926064390/0001104659-26-064390-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000110465926064390/tm2614824d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-15	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-15 15:39:30+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000116450826000030/0001164508-26-000030-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000116450826000030/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-15 13:38:33+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000086917826000040/0000869178-26-000040-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000086917826000040/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SC 13G/A	2026-05-15 11:39:30+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000116450826000030/0001164508-26-000030-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164508/000116450826000030/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SC 13G/A	2026-05-15 09:38:33+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341335/000086917826000040/0000869178-26-000040-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/869178/000086917826000040/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 25.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	40-F	1	2
2	40-F	1	2
3	40-F	1	2
4	40-F	1	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-22 09:05:12.628780+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.2078
Confidence: 0.8881
Top event classes: legal_regulatory, product_contract_partnership, analyst_revision, issuer_release, earnings_result
Publisher mix: issuer_wire_release: 9, analyst_forecaster: 5, market_analysis: 4, unknown: 2
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (15 factual/mixed, 5 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.208; top events: legal_regulatory, product_contract_partnership, analyst_revision.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7410	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.5910	0.7000	unknown	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.5910	0.7000	unknown	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.5218	0.7000	market_analysis	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.7410	0.5600	issuer_wire_release	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.5910	0.5600	unknown	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.5910	0.5600	unknown	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.5218	0.5600	market_analysis	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.4288
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6625	0.4100
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6625	0.4100
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6625	0.4100
market_opinion	organization	Defense World	organization-level	-0.3600	0.5930
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.3250	0.4268
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.2736	0.4788
analyst_revision	organization	Defense World	organization-level	0.0000	0.5218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-22 09:05:12.628780+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.2736	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 11.00
2026-06-22 08:57:10.691016+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.3250	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-19 16:52:01+00:00	factual_event	yahoo	positive	0.8500	0.3742	healthcare_fda_biotech, commodities_mining	Fortuna Mining (FSM) Secures Environmental Approval for Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal
2026-06-19 16:52:01+00:00	factual_event	insidermonkey	positive	0.8500	0.3742	healthcare_fda_biotech, commodities_mining	Fortuna Mining (FSM) Secures Environmental Approval for Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal
2026-06-17 10:25:34+00:00	factual_event	zacks.com	positive	0.8500	0.3742	healthcare_fda_biotech, commodities_mining	FSM Advances Diamba Sud Project With Environmental Approval
2026-06-15 05:00:00+00:00	factual_event	globenewswire.com	positive	0.8500	0.3617	healthcare_fda_biotech, commodities_mining	Fortuna obtains key environmental approval for Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal
2026-06-08 10:57:55.583312+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 14.00
2026-06-01 00:00:00+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.6625	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: rating mix

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 4,888
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $9.43
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	16.6%
20 sessions	-8.7%
60 sessions	-2.2%
252 sessions	37.1%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/FSM.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4910	0.1198	0.3892	0.1018	0.0057	0.4910	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4821	0.1636	0.3543	0.1278	0.0119	0.4821	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4600	0.1941	0.3459	0.1142	0.0111	0.4600	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4366	0.2591	0.3042	0.1324	0.0072	0.4366	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4611	0.2309	0.3080	0.1531	0.0036	0.4611	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5147	0.0996	0.3858	0.1289
5	0.5136	0.1478	0.3387	0.1749
10	0.4863	0.1918	0.3219	0.1644
21	0.4857	0.2747	0.2396	0.2460
63	0.5376	0.2175	0.2448	0.2928

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.2444	0.6122	-1	4	40-F	Low negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, restatement.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.0571	0.5122	-1	4	40-F	Low negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	40-F, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
No source-context SEC snippets could be extracted from current cached filing assets

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_product_contract_event	event	1	0.5600	0.6112	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.5372	0.6372	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.5200	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.4800	0.7410	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.4194	0.4510	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.1977	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.1756	0.4500	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.1715	0.4511	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0301	0.4511	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3479	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	5	20430	0.5286	0.0038	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	1	20430	0.5123	0.0013	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	20	20387	0.5388	0.0099	trainable	True
Zacks Investment Research	analyst_revision	1	18499	0.5233	0.0012	trainable	True
Zacks Investment Research	analyst_revision	5	18448	0.5293	0.0038	trainable	True
Zacks Investment Research	analyst_revision	20	18124	0.5357	0.0118	trainable	True
BMO Capital	analyst_revision	1	16087	0.5138	0.0012	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0800	0.5600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-26, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0301	0.4511	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500; defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.4645 samples 1266; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.1715	0.4511	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.1756	0.4500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5962	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 6.8284, P/B 1.7101, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5365	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 6.8284, peer P/E 15.5545
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8592	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0541, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4568	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 1.7101, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6022	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin 0.3881, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6045	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 1.7101, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0549
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5308	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.1803, PEG proxy 0.3786
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3535	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0541, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0719	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.1923
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3011	0.6417	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 2/3, quality pct 0.6506, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7188	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 0.8550, indices 5/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0324	0.1000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7097	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0549
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5548	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7836	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6471	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0541, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7482	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0549
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8884	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0549, EV/EBITDA 11.1598, FCF yield 0.0541
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.5751	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0445, FCF yield 0.0541, share growth 0.0802
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6351	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0840, current ratio 3.1726, net cash/market cap 0.1553
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6334	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance -0.0081, growth 0.1803
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4606	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.7981, ROIC 0.0549, market cap 3003822601
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5195	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.1085, yield spread -0.0544, beta 1.0000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7555	0.2333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0544, margin 0.0307, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9124	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 0.5246, base intrinsic/price 1.4510, cash-flow yield 0.0541
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.6889	0.4366	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return 0.0072, p_up 0.4366, value pct 0.7981

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0420	0.0359	5	5	current / review / inferred

B

Research Thesis

Thesis: B has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 59.34 and confidence 0.6510. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0602; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0492; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0490. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0097.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0602; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0492; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0490
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0097
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 3
Aggregate score: 59.34
Prediction score: 59.34
Confidence: 0.6510
Expected return estimate: -0.0004
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.3102; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0602	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6337; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0492	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1202; confidence 0.4523; expected return -0.0004	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0490	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1952; confidence 0.4952	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0341	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.2500; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0097	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.1375; confidence 0.8836	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0040	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0602	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0492	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0490	+#.......................	0.4523	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0341	+#.......................	0.4952	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0097	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0040	+#.......................	0.8836	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6337	0.0492	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.3102	0.0602	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.2500	-0.0097	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.0729	0.0089	0.4595	-0.0028
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1268	0.0129	0.4659	-0.0024
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.1311	0.0107	0.4483	-0.0013
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1593	0.0097	0.4274	0.0082
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1652	0.0067	0.4425	0.0007
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1546	0.0081	0.5261
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1859	0.0081	0.5030
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1648	0.0058	0.4605
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2540	0.0067	0.4533
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.3132	0.0055	0.5150
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.1375	0.0040	0.8836

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0602 (signal 0.3102, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0492 (signal 0.6337, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0129 (signal 0.1268, confidence 0.4659)
markov_state_blend h10 weighted 0.0107 (signal 0.1311, confidence 0.4483)
markov_state_blend h21 weighted 0.0097 (signal 0.1593, confidence 0.4274)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6510.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0097 (signal -0.2500, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-27	21	-1.0000	0.9100	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=122
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-27	21	-1.0000	0.9100	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=334
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-27	21	-1.0000	0.9083	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=116
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-27	21	-1.0000	0.8803	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=76
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-27	21	-1.0000	0.8768	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=72
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7250	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 0.8313, indices 4/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6253	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-27	21	-1.0000	0.5253	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=26
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2111	0.7656	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1857	0.5622	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, liquidity_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-02-27	21	-0.1262	0.5826	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=6
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.0519	0.5500	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Gold
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0250	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.0006	0.7278	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 1/2, quality pct 0.4997, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5867	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0740	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.1765
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0570	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.7600	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	facts 7, latest filing 2026-02-27, flags none
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4202	0.5816	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=9
News / Forecast	news_cybersecurity_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4877	0.4293	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2759	0.5349	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=32
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.3353	0.3697	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_earnings_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.3050	0.3479	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1344	0.6856	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=5
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1200	0.6218	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=6

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-01	653	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-22 09:05:08.818215+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:03.422467+00:00	534	27 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Barrick Mining Corporation
Classification: Mining / Critical Materials / Large Cap Quality
Scoring model: Mining
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$41.34	Market cap	$69.27B
P/E	10.81	P/S	13.20
P/B	2.49	P/FCF	41.12
FCF yield	2.4%	Revenue growth YoY	65.3%
Gross margin	57.5%	Operating margin	56.7%
Net margin	30.5%	ROE	5.8%
Debt / equity	0.17	Current ratio	3.06
Net cash / market cap	3.5%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$544.60M

Score	Value
Valuation	59.83
Growth	93.34
Profitability	83.38
Balance sheet	72.43
Cash flow	77.59
Total fundamental	65.51
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	65.51

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 10.81.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 65.3%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: -2.9%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: 0.0%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
WPM	1	yes	$58.15B	63.17	25.91	50.00	6.41	1.2%
AEM	2	yes	$87.26B	63.14	14.97	24.77	3.86	0.7%
FNV	3	yes	$43.68B	61.42	25.41	50.00	5.86	0.1%
NEM	4	yes	$114.76B	64.94	9.00	16.35	3.36	2.7%
KGC	5	yes	$34.71B	65.35	11.01	15.42	4.01	2.3%
AGI	6	yes	$16.33B	59.19	24.71	31.70	4.04	0.3%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-01	SD	2026-06-01 20:11:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526251432/0001193125-26-251432-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526251432/d44606dsd.htm)
2026-05-14	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-14 16:52:51+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000156223026000052/0001562230-26-000052-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000156223026000052/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-11	6-K	2026-05-11 19:33:58+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526216613/0001193125-26-216613-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526216613/d145525d6k.htm)
2026-04-08	6-K	2026-04-08 21:25:05+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526148005/0001193125-26-148005-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526148005/d858698d6k.htm)
2026-02-27	6-K	2026-02-27 12:50:29+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079280/0001193125-26-079280-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079280/d16658d6k.htm)
2026-02-27	6-K	2026-02-27 12:47:33+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079268/0001193125-26-079268-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079268/d134256d6k.htm)
2026-02-27	6-K	2026-02-27 12:43:57+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079258/0001193125-26-079258-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079258/d85391d6k.htm)
2026-02-27	40-F	2026-02-27 12:39:52+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/0001193125-26-079253-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm)
2026-02-13	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-02-13 21:30:00+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000156223026000006/0001562230-26-000006-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000156223026000006/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X01/primary_doc.xml)
2026-02-05	6-K	2026-02-05 21:34:18+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526039501/0001193125-26-039501-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526039501/d10712d6k.htm)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 25.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	40-F	1	2
2	40-F	1	2
3	40-F	1	2
4	40-F	1	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-22 09:05:08.818215+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.1375
Confidence: 0.8836
Top event classes: price_target_summary, analyst_revision, price_target_consensus, capital_return, market_opinion
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 9, analyst_forecaster: 7, issuer_wire_release: 3, trusted_market_reporting: 1
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (12 factual/mixed, 8 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.138; top events: price_target_summary, analyst_revision, price_target_consensus.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
cybersecurity	-0.8200	0.7660	0.8200	issuer_wire_release	Cybersecurity, breach, ransomware, or vulnerability event
capital_return	0.6400	0.5718	0.6400	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action
earnings_result	0.6100	0.5218	0.6100	market_analysis	Earnings result or earnings-call readout
capital_return	0.5800	0.5468	0.5800	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action
capital_return	0.5800	0.5468	0.5800	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action
capital_return	0.5200	0.7410	0.5200	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
capital_return	0.5200	0.5218	0.5200	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action
capital_return	0.5200	0.5218	0.5200	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.8408	0.3912
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.7852	0.3884
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6443	0.4788
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	0.5700	0.5468
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	0.5700	0.5468
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.4792	0.5780
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.4792	0.5780
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.4740	0.5864

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-22 09:05:08.818215+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.6443	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 52.00
2026-06-19 07:03:02.392796+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	negative_risk	0.2500	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 41.00
2026-06-18 00:55:38+00:00	opinion_forecast	seekingalpha.com	positive	0.8500	0.2167	earnings_guidance_analysts, commodities_mining	Barrick Mining: Robust Fundamentals, IPOs Planned, A Buy
2026-06-17 06:13:52.739814+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.8408	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 55.25
2026-06-16 11:20:00+00:00	mixed_context	seekingalpha.com	positive	0.8500	0.4742	earnings_guidance_analysts, commodities_mining, ma_buyback_dividend	Barrick Mining: An Undervalued Cash Machine
2026-06-12 12:08:20.298537+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.3722	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 47.50
2026-06-12 10:00:00+00:00	unknown	globenewswire.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Barrick Publishes 2025 Sustainability Report and Performance Data
2026-06-12 10:00:00+00:00	unknown	globenewswire.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Barrick Publishes 2025 Sustainability Report and Performance Data

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $41.29
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	11.0%
20 sessions	-4.3%
60 sessions	2.1%
252 sessions	104.0%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/B.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4595	0.1540	0.3866	0.0729	-0.0028	0.4595	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4659	0.1949	0.3391	0.1268	-0.0024	0.4659	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4483	0.2344	0.3172	0.1311	-0.0013	0.4483	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4274	0.3045	0.2681	0.1593	0.0082	0.4274	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4425	0.2802	0.2773	0.1652	0.0007	0.4425	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5261	0.1023	0.3715	0.1546
5	0.5030	0.1798	0.3172	0.1859
10	0.4605	0.2437	0.2957	0.1648
21	0.4533	0.3474	0.1993	0.2540
63	0.5150	0.2833	0.2017	0.3132

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.2111	0.7656	-1	4	40-F, 40-F/A, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.1857	0.5622	-1	4	40-F	Low negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, liquidity_uncertainty.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0250	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 424B3	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	0.0000	0.5867	0	4	40-F, 40-F/A, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	40-F, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	3, 4, 40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, F-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
No source-context SEC snippets could be extracted from current cached filing assets

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_cybersecurity_event	event	1	-0.4877	0.4293	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.4202	0.5816	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.3050	0.3479	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.2759	0.5349	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.1344	0.6856	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.1200	0.6218	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0798	0.5710	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0750	0.5509	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0144	0.5509	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.0000	0.5949	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.0000	0.5656	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_financing_liquidity_event	event	1	0.0000	0.4209	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
2026-04-10	2026-01-30	Sale (Full)	Arjun Mody	Deputy Commissioner	$1,001 - $15,000	231	0.4589	-0.0012	[filing](https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/3F589CB2A272619D85258DD5002DC58C/$FILE/Arjun-Mody-02.27.2026-278T.pdf)

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	1	35619	0.5107	0.0009	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	5	35593	0.5263	0.0027	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	20	35218	0.5439	0.0117	trainable	True
UBS	analyst_revision	1	29483	0.5264	0.0012	trainable	True
UBS	analyst_revision	5	29460	0.5430	0.0047	trainable	True
UBS	analyst_revision	20	29030	0.5557	0.0131	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	1	27492	0.5126	0.0006	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1200	0.7600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 24, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.7600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-02-27	facts 7, latest filing 2026-02-27, flags none
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0144	0.5509	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	seeking_alpha / analyst_revision hit 0.5259 samples 7318; seeking_alpha / analyst_revision hit 0.5259 samples 7318; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0750	0.5509	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0798	0.5710	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	-0.0085	0.2055	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0427	0.2277	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.0792	0.2515	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3565	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 10.8119, P/B 2.4909, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6131	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 10.8119, peer P/E 18.5022
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6124	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0243, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2773	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 2.4909, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3392	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.0860, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5043	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 2.4909, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0457
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5453	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.6535, PEG proxy 0.1655
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3804	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0243, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0740	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.1765
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0006	0.7278	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 1/2, quality pct 0.4997, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0570	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7250	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 0.8313, indices 4/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0324	0.1000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7089	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0457
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.3813	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6253	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4602	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0243, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6002	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0457
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7683	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0457, EV/EBITDA 19.1288, FCF yield 0.0243
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7152	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0299, FCF yield 0.0243, share growth -0.0290
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5725	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0899, current ratio 3.0638, net cash/market cap 0.0348
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.2717	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance 0.0000, growth 0.6535
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3374	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.6782, ROIC 0.0457, market cap 69267759200
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8170	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield 0.0223, events 12m 4, years 6
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9151	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-11	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield 0.0917, EPS growth 0.1259, analysts 9
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7623	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0778, yield spread -0.0535, beta 0.3170
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6529	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0535, margin 0.0095, terminal growth 0.0315
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8248	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin -0.0611, base intrinsic/price 0.8124, cash-flow yield 0.0243
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.5791	0.4274	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return 0.0082, p_up 0.4274, value pct 0.6782

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0420	0.0359	5	5	current / review / inferred

TNK

Research Thesis

Thesis: TNK has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 59.32 and confidence 0.6276. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.1057; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0529; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0291. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0272.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.1057; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0529; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0291
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0272
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 4
Aggregate score: 59.32
Prediction score: 59.32
Confidence: 0.6276
Expected return estimate: -0.0138
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Marine Shipping
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.5446; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.1057	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6816; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0529	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.0715; confidence 0.4172; expected return -0.0138	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0291	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.7000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0272	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1479; confidence 0.4442	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0258	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.8761	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.1057	+###.....................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0529	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0291	+#.......................	0.4172	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0272	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0258	+#.......................	0.4442	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0000	0........................	0.8761	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6816	0.0529	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.5446	0.1057	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.7000	-0.0272	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1170	0.0143	0.4774	0.0078
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.0468	0.0048	0.4148	-0.0123
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0336	0.0027	0.3879	-0.0157
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.0591	0.0036	0.3577	-0.0338
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.0906	0.0037	0.3904	-0.0486
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.2121	0.0111	0.5183
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1004	0.0044	0.4194
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.0739	0.0026	0.3702
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.1529	0.0040	0.4601
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2147	0.0037	0.4077
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0000	0.0000	0.8761

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.1057 (signal 0.5446, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0529 (signal 0.6816, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0143 (signal 0.1170, confidence 0.4774)
neural_market_horizon h1 weighted 0.0111 (signal 0.2121, confidence 0.5183)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0048 (signal 0.0468, confidence 0.4148)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6276.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0272 (signal -0.7000, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z 7.8403, factors 5/5, suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.9313	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 2.4921, indices 7/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-13	21	-1.0000	0.9100	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=135
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-13	21	-1.0000	0.8759	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=71
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-13	21	-0.9068	0.7960	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=112
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-13	21	-1.0000	0.6969	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=16
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-13	21	-1.0000	0.6866	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=21
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6804	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-13	21	-0.9055	0.7439	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=9
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.8278	0.7767	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=High negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, going_concern, impairment, material_weakness, restatement, xbrl_net_loss_latest; positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_net_loss_latest, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.3668	0.9367	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Industrials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Marine Shipping
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4605	0.7457	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 2, HHI 0.7675, loss ratio 0.0000
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4071	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3950	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, data_breach, litigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3625	0.6511	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: guarantee, related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.2167	0.8833	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 4/6, quality pct 0.6083, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-03-13	21	-0.1962	0.7094	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=8
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1875	0.5744	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: negative review features: delisting_event; recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0750	0.5233	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B2, 424B3, 424B4, 424B5, F-1, F-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0250	0.6089	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: F-1, F-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.8400	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	facts 10, latest filing 2026-03-13, flags none
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.6218	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=5
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-11	1	0.4800	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-11	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1702	0.4889	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=13
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	5	0.0872	0.5252	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=14
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.3709	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_earnings_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-10	469	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Medium.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-20 08:42:52+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:07.619881+00:00	238	22 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Teekay Tankers Ltd.
Classification: Industrials / Industrial Value Candidate
Scoring model: Shipping
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$72.22	Market cap	$2.50B
P/E	4.15	P/S	8.91
P/B	1.16	P/FCF	33.25
FCF yield	3.0%	Revenue growth YoY	23.5%
Gross margin	47.3%	Operating margin	43.7%
Net margin	53.7%	ROE	7.0%
Debt / equity	0.02	Current ratio	9.40
Net cash / market cap	38.5%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$37.15M

Score	Value
Valuation	77.13
Growth	81.00
Profitability	82.36
Balance sheet	90.58
Cash flow	82.39
Total fundamental	77.23
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	77.23

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 4.15.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 23.5%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: 0.7%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: 0.0%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
DAC	1	yes	$2.34B	57.63	3.65	8.09	0.52	0.3%
ZIM	2	yes	$2.97B	45.22	n/a	2.27	0.83	7.3%
BWLP	3	yes	$3.05B	61.21	4.75	2.70	1.08	8.4%
NMM	4	yes	$2.04B	68.80	4.63	5.52	0.58	2.7%
SBLK	5	yes	$3.22B	67.42	10.92	9.09	1.05	3.6%
CMRE	6	yes	$1.89B	50.83	6.34	10.11	0.95	1.3%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-10	4/A	2026-06-10 13:34:38+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000052/0001419945-26-000052-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000052/xslF345X06/wk-form4a_1781098475.xml)
2026-06-10	4/A	2026-06-10 13:31:08+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000170171026000003/0001701710-26-000003-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000170171026000003/xslF345X06/wk-form4a_1781098265.xml)
2026-06-10	4/A	2026-06-10 13:27:20+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000049/0001419945-26-000049-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000049/xslF345X06/wk-form4a_1781098037.xml)
2026-06-10	4/A	2026-06-10 09:34:38+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000052/0001419945-26-000052-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000052/xslF345X06/wk-form4a_1781098475.xml)
2026-06-10	4/A	2026-06-10 09:31:08+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000170171026000003/0001701710-26-000003-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000170171026000003/xslF345X06/wk-form4a_1781098265.xml)
2026-06-10	4/A	2026-06-10 09:27:20+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000049/0001419945-26-000049-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000049/xslF345X06/wk-form4a_1781098037.xml)
2026-06-09	4	2026-06-10 00:50:27+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000047/0001419945-26-000047-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000047/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1781052625.xml)
2026-06-09	4	2026-06-10 00:44:57+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000045/0001419945-26-000045-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000045/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1781052294.xml)
2026-06-09	4	2026-06-10 00:39:30+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000043/0001419945-26-000043-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000043/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1781051967.xml)
2026-06-09	4	2026-06-10 00:25:36+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000041/0001419945-26-000041-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000041/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1781051134.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 70.00
Governance review label: Medium
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (7 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (3 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (7 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (3 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Control	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	6-K	1	1	1	0
2	6-K	0	0	0	0
3	6-K	2	3	0	1
4	20-F	1	3	3	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-20 08:42:52+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0000
Confidence: 0.8761
Top event classes: analyst_revision, market_opinion, legal_regulatory, corporate_action, price_target_summary
Publisher mix: analyst_forecaster: 8, market_analysis: 8, unknown: 2, issuer_wire_release: 2
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (9 factual/mixed, 11 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.000; top events: analyst_revision, market_opinion, legal_regulatory.

Factual / Mixed Event	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
capital_return	0.7410	0.5200	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
corporate_action	0.5910	0.6800	unknown	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
legal_regulatory	0.5910	0.7000	unknown	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
corporate_action	0.5218	0.6800	market_analysis	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
legal_regulatory	0.5218	0.7000	market_analysis	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
earnings_result	0.5218	0.6100	market_analysis	Earnings result or earnings-call readout

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5460	0.4538
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.4768	0.4413
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.4768	0.4288
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Themes	Headline
2026-06-20 08:42:52+00:00	factual_event	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.3500	none	334,894 Shares in Teekay Tankers Ltd. $TNK Acquired by Fearnley Asset Management AS
2026-06-20 05:18:49+00:00	unknown	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.3500	none	Teekay Tankers (NYSE:TNK) Lowered to “Buy” Rating by Wall Street Zen
2026-06-18 06:53:11.943951+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.5460	none	Price target summary: average target 88.00
2026-06-17 10:31:10+00:00	opinion_forecast	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	none	Wall Street Analysts Think Teekay Tankers (TNK) Is a Good Investment: Is It?
2026-06-17 06:00:18.824469+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.2826	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-15 03:11:09.413930+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.4768	none	Price target consensus: 86.00
2026-06-12 19:19:00+00:00	unknown	gurufocus.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	none	Teekay Tankers Ltd (TNK) Shares Surge 4.0% -- What GF Score of 59 Tells Investors
2026-06-09 07:46:47.954703+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.4768	none	Price target summary: average target 86.00

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 4,653
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $73.93
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	1.6%
20 sessions	-4.4%
60 sessions	12.1%
252 sessions	64.6%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/TNK.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4774	0.1622	0.3604	0.1170	0.0078	0.4774	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4148	0.2173	0.3680	0.0468	-0.0123	0.4148	pass	n/a
10	U	0.3879	0.2578	0.3543	0.0336	-0.0157	0.3879	pass	n/a
21	U	0.3577	0.3438	0.2985	0.0591	-0.0338	0.3577	pass	n/a
63	U	0.3904	0.3098	0.2998	0.0906	-0.0486	0.3904	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5183	0.1754	0.3062	0.2121
5	0.4194	0.2616	0.3190	0.1004
10	0.3702	0.3334	0.2964	0.0739
21	0.3464	0.4601	0.1935	0.1529
63	0.4077	0.3992	0.1930	0.2147

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.8278	0.7767	-1	4	20-F, 6-K, 6-K/A	High negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, going_concern, impairment, material_weakness, restatement, xbrl_net_loss_latest; positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_net_loss_latest, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.4071	0.6567	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.3950	0.6567	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, data_breach, litigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	-0.3625	0.6511	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: guarantee, related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	-0.1875	0.5744	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Material Event Intelligence: negative review features: delisting_event; recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0750	0.5233	-1	4	144, 20-F, 424B2, 424B3, 424B4	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B2, 424B3, 424B4, 424B5, F-1, F-3.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.0250	0.6089	0	4	20-F, 6-K, 6-K/A, F-1, F-3	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: F-1, F-3.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	20-F, 6-K, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	20-F, 3, 4, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	20-F, 6-K, F-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
20-F	2026-03-13	Related Party Transactions 66 A	related_party	related party	section-supported	le in Oversight of Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance 65 Crewing and Staff 65 Share Ownership 65 Item 7. Major Shareholders and Related Party Transactions 66 A. Major Shareholders 66 B. Related Party Trans...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/f0/f06bc182a70ffca97196d913966570ca3f40c9a19ef1174825d1af1d1376735a.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000007/tnk-20251231.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000007; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.641139+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
6-K	2026-05-06	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 20 EXECUTIVE OFFICERS 2 2 PRINCIPAL AUDITOR FEES AND SERVICES 2...	related_party	related party	section-supported	OF APPOINTMENT OF INDEPENDENT AUDITORS 1 8 COMMON SHARE OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT 1 9 CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 20 EXECUTIVE OFFICERS 2 2 PRINCIPAL AUDITOR FEES A...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/ae/aef59dd37e9bce8fd397c5abad1b7a1a329aae4d23aa5f1f42dbe386b7c28d43.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000011/tnk-2026agmnoticeandproxys.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000011; cached 2026-06-02 19:32:11.536938+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
6-K	2026-05-06	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 20 EXECUTIVE OFFICERS 2 2 PRINCIPAL AUDITOR FEES AND SERVICES 2...	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	OPOSAL NO. 2 RATIFICATION OF APPOINTMENT OF INDEPENDENT AUDITORS 1 8 COMMON SHARE OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT 1 9 CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 20 EXECUTIVE OFFICERS 2...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/ae/aef59dd37e9bce8fd397c5abad1b7a1a329aae4d23aa5f1f42dbe386b7c28d43.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000011/tnk-2026agmnoticeandproxys.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000011; cached 2026-06-02 19:32:11.536938+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
6-K	2026-05-15	Related party transactions (note 11) The accompanying notes are an integral part of the unaudited consolidated financ...	related_party	related party	section-supported	ed-average number of Class A and Class B common shares outstanding ( note 16) - Basic 34,758,582 34,482,849 - Diluted 34,909,856 34,666,717 Related party transactions (note 11) The accompanying notes are an integral p...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/30/30ae8f62394ce5381db9a731b948ddaa383a6ea03c5928e96b9456ef3423efa1.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000018/tnk6-kq1x26.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000018; cached 2026-06-02 19:31:45.083476+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
20-F	2026-03-13	near matched term	control	controlled company	term-context	nce” from the home page of our website at www.teekay.com . The NYSE exempts a company like ours, which is a “foreign private issuer” and a "controlled company", from certain of the corporate governance requirements ap...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/f0/f06bc182a70ffca97196d913966570ca3f40c9a19ef1174825d1af1d1376735a.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000007/tnk-20251231.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000007; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.641139+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
20-F	2026-03-13	near matched term	control	dual-class	term-context	rs requiring shareholder approval, including the election of directors and significant corporate transactions. In addition, because of this dual-class common share structure, Teekay will continue to be able to control...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/f0/f06bc182a70ffca97196d913966570ca3f40c9a19ef1174825d1af1d1376735a.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000007/tnk-20251231.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000007; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.641139+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
6-K	2026-05-06	near matched term	control	controlled company	term-context	ponsibilities and its commitment to sustainability. Exemptions from NYSE Corporate Governance Rules As a "foreign private issuer" and as a "controlled company," Teekay Tankers is exempt from certain corporate governan...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/ae/aef59dd37e9bce8fd397c5abad1b7a1a329aae4d23aa5f1f42dbe386b7c28d43.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000011/tnk-2026agmnoticeandproxys.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000011; cached 2026-06-02 19:32:11.536938+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
6-K	2026-05-06	near matched term	control	dual-class	term-context	all of Teekay Tankers' issued and outstanding Class B common shares and holds additional Class A common shares. Because of Teekay Tankers’ dual-class structure, Teekay Corporation Ltd. may continue to control all matt...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/ae/aef59dd37e9bce8fd397c5abad1b7a1a329aae4d23aa5f1f42dbe386b7c28d43.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419945/000141994526000011/tnk-2026agmnoticeandproxys.htm; accession 0001419945-26-000011; cached 2026-06-02 19:32:11.536938+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.6218	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.1702	0.4889	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0872	0.5252	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0586	0.5480	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0093	0.5252	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3709	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3709	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.0000	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	1	63163	0.5034	0.0002	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	5	63138	0.5145	0.0020	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	20	62628	0.5441	0.0095	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	1	43084	0.5173	0.0011	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	5	43025	0.5267	0.0028	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	20	42580	0.5383	0.0089	trainable	True
Wells Fargo	analyst_revision	1	38518	0.5066	0.0007	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1741	0.0453	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	6 feature families, 23 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1741	0.0453	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	6 feature families, 23 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1741	0.0453	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	6 feature families, 23 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1798	0.0567	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Manufacturing capex (has_demand_driver, score -0.4357); Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1798	0.0567	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Manufacturing capex (has_demand_driver, score -0.4357); Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1798	0.0567	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Manufacturing capex (has_demand_driver, score -0.4357); Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1745	0.0559	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Manufacturing capex (has_demand_driver, score -0.4357); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Nonresidential construction (has_demand_driver, score -0.1719)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1745	0.0559	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Manufacturing capex (has_demand_driver, score -0.4357); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Nonresidential construction (has_demand_driver, score -0.1719)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1745	0.0559	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Manufacturing capex (has_demand_driver, score -0.4357); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Nonresidential construction (has_demand_driver, score -0.1719)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1868	0.1050	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Diesel fuel (has_cost_driver, score -0.5115); Crude oil (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.0502)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1868	0.1050	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Diesel fuel (has_cost_driver, score -0.5115); Crude oil (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.0502)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1868	0.1050	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Diesel fuel (has_cost_driver, score -0.5115); Crude oil (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.0502)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.1948	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts requirement 2.7683887; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876; Electrical equipment, appliances, and components requirement 2.2935118
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0400	0.5600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 2, auto-linked 1, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.8400	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-13	facts 10, latest filing 2026-03-13, flags none
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0093	0.5252	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500; evercore_isi_group / analyst_revision hit 0.5344 samples 13277; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.5203 samples 791
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0872	0.5252	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0586	0.5480	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; zacks_investment_research / market_opinion hit 0.4892 samples 6814; zacks_investment_research / market_opinion hit 0.4892 samples 6814
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6249	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 4.1493, P/B 1.1637, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.1811	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 4.1493, peer P/E 6.0591
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6831	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0301, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7436	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 1.1637, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8419	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin 1.1586, NCAV/market cap 0.3523, SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7253	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 1.1637, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0536
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5714	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.2351, PEG proxy 0.1765
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0387	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0301, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4605	0.7457	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 2, HHI 0.7675, loss ratio 0.0000
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2167	0.8833	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 4/6, quality pct 0.6083, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z 7.8403, factors 5/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.9313	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 2.4921, indices 7/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0752	0.1300	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 4, latest 2026-03-27, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6905	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0536
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6822	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6804	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8169	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0301, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6348	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0536
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8393	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0536, EV/EBITDA 12.6321, FCF yield 0.0301
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6818	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0642, FCF yield 0.0301, share growth 0.0070
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.8529	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0138, current ratio 9.3984, net cash/market cap 0.3849
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.4626	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance 0.0004, growth 0.2351
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4424	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.8125, ROIC 0.0536, market cap 2502152427
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6790	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0954, yield spread -0.0653, beta 1.0000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6879	0.2333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0653, margin 0.0335, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8592	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 0.0976, base intrinsic/price 1.0084, cash-flow yield 0.0301
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0627	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score -0.0627, roots CL
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0974	0.7301	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-15, score -0.0974, commodities commodity:diesel_fuel, commodity:crude_oil
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.2576	0.3577	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0338, p_up 0.3577, value pct 0.8125

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	has_cost_driver	commodity:Diesel fuel	-0.5115	0.1445	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / negative / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	has_cost_driver	commodity:Diesel fuel	-0.5115	0.1445	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / negative / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	has_cost_driver	commodity:Diesel fuel	-0.5115	0.1445	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / negative / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Manufacturing capex	-0.4357	0.1008	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4930
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Manufacturing capex	-0.4357	0.1008	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4930
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Manufacturing capex	-0.4357	0.1008	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4930
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0343	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4080
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0343	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4080
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0343	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4080
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1259	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5270
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1259	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5270
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1259	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5270

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Has Cost Driver / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	1	commodity	-0.5115	0.0636	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	20	commodity	-0.5115	0.0636	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	5	commodity	-0.5115	0.0636	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0120	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0120	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0120	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	1	commodity	0.0502	0.1346	1	1	current / review / source_supported
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	5	commodity	0.0502	0.1346	1	1	current / review / source_supported
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	20	commodity	0.0502	0.1346	1	1	current / review / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.2018	0.0266	12	12	stale / review / inferred

CASH

Research Thesis

Thesis: CASH has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 59.29 and confidence 0.6159. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.1079; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0556; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0308. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0233; News Event Intelligence contributed -0.0013.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.1079; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0556; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0308
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0233; News Event Intelligence contributed -0.0013
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 5
Aggregate score: 59.29
Prediction score: 59.29
Confidence: 0.6159
Expected return estimate: 0.0016
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Banks - Regional
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.5560; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.1079	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.7164; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0556	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.0756; confidence 0.4027; expected return 0.0016	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0308	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.6000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0233	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.0926; confidence 0.4102	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0162	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal -0.0433; confidence 0.8806	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution -0.0013	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.1079	+###.....................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0556	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0308	+#.......................	0.4027	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0233	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0162	+#.......................	0.4102	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	-0.0013	-#.......................	0.8806	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.7164	0.0556	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.5560	0.1079	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.6000	-0.0233	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.0557	0.0068	0.4332	0.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.0657	0.0067	0.3979	0.0012
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0604	0.0049	0.3751	-0.0008
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.0967	0.0059	0.3800	-0.0001
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1586	0.0065	0.4123	0.0145
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.0669	0.0035	0.4329
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.0796	0.0035	0.3952
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.0591	0.0021	0.3557
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.1185	0.0031	0.4596
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2299	0.0040	0.4149
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	-0.0433	-0.0013	0.8806

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.1079 (signal 0.5560, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0556 (signal 0.7164, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0068 (signal 0.0557, confidence 0.4332)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0067 (signal 0.0657, confidence 0.3979)
markov_state_blend h63 weighted 0.0065 (signal 0.1586, confidence 0.4123)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6159.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0233 (signal -0.6000, confidence 0.8500)
news_event_intelligence h1 weighted -0.0013 (signal -0.0433, confidence 0.8806)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-1.0000	0.9100	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=549
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-1.0000	0.8669	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=62
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-1.0000	0.8052	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=24
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-1.0000	0.7027	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=27
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6733	0.8444	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 5/5, quality pct 0.8366, latest 2025-09-30
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.5455	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-0.7330	0.7335	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=66
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.5678	0.7500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield 0.0036, tag StockRepurchasedAndRetiredDuringPeriodValue, qtrs 4, cutoff 2024-09-30
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4454	0.8750	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 3, HHI 0.6849, loss ratio 0.1935
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.3946	0.8833	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Financial Services; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Banks - Regional
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4071	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.2800	0.8400	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	facts 9, latest filing 2026-05-07, flags low_cash_to_liabilities, fmp_sec_debt_ratio_mismatch
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-0.2219	0.7416	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=21
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-0.3576	0.3509	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=2
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1167	0.7033	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: material_weakness; positive review features: remediated_material_weakness, xbrl_positive_net_income; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1375	0.5511	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: preferred_stock; recent activity forms: 144, 424B2, 424B3, S-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0850	0.5789	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: litigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0750	0.5233	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: unusual_compensation.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0150	0.6200	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; structured XBRL features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; recent activity forms: 8-K, S-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: S-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0570	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed True
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0556	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 3/8, quality pct , suppressed True
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.5600	0.2358	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1384	0.7472	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=4
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1771	0.4589	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=9
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.2073	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0770	0.4709	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=6
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=1

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-08	1029	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Medium.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	19	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-22 09:13:22.776283+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:22.776283+00:00	173	11 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Pathward Financial, Inc.
Classification: Banks / Bank Value Candidate
Scoring model: Banks
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$80.98	Market cap	$1.71B
P/E	6.62	P/S	6.84
P/B	2.26	P/FCF	8.36
FCF yield	12.0%	Revenue growth YoY	19.6%
Gross margin	81.8%	Operating margin	30.9%
Net margin	25.8%	ROE	8.6%
Debt / equity	0.07	Current ratio	7.45
Net cash / market cap	5.7%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$17.51M

Score	Value
Valuation	77.21
Growth	76.59
Profitability	87.53
Balance sheet	81.64
Cash flow	97.52
Total fundamental	77.80
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	77.80

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 6.62.
Free-cash-flow yield is 12.0%.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 19.6%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: -8.6%
Stock compensation / revenue: 1.4%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -4.3%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
LOB	1	yes	$1.71B	62.75	12.63	5.84	1.19	5.6%
CHCO	2	yes	$1.73B	58.99	13.44	17.33	2.15	2.2%
TFIN	3	yes	$1.67B	45.77	55.83	11.59	1.49	0.2%
SRCE	4	yes	$1.76B	62.64	10.51	11.27	1.31	3.5%
DCOM	5	yes	$1.63B	61.89	10.53	7.88	0.97	3.2%
GABC	6	yes	$1.62B	67.22	11.82	12.75	1.33	2.3%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-08	4	2026-06-08 20:27:28+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000212977526000004/0002129775-26-000004-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000212977526000004/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1780950445.xml)
2026-06-08	4	2026-06-08 16:27:28+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000212977526000004/0002129775-26-000004-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000212977526000004/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1780950445.xml)
2026-06-01	4	2026-06-01 20:58:40+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000162828026039577/0001628280-26-039577-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000162828026039577/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1780347517.xml)
2026-06-01	4	2026-06-01 16:58:40+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000162828026039577/0001628280-26-039577-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000162828026039577/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1780347517.xml)
2026-05-29	144	2026-05-29 13:05:33+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000194984626000329/0001949846-26-000329-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000194984626000329/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-21	8-K	2026-05-21 13:00:14+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000027/0000907471-26-000027-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000027/cash-20260521.htm)
2026-05-21	8-K	2026-05-21 09:00:14+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000027/0000907471-26-000027-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000027/cash-20260521.htm)
2026-05-07	10-Q	2026-05-07 20:18:41+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000025/0000907471-26-000025-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000025/cash-20260331.htm)
2026-05-07	10-Q	2026-05-07 16:18:41+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000025/0000907471-26-000025-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000025/cash-20260331.htm)
2026-04-30	4	2026-04-30 20:01:34+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000159150126000005/0001591501-26-000005-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000159150126000005/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1777579292.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 60.00
Governance review label: Medium
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	8-K	0	0	0
2	10-Q	1	2	2
3	8-K	0	0	0
4	8-K	0	0	0

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 19
Latest article: 2026-06-22 09:13:22.776283+00:00
Weighted event score: -0.0433
Confidence: 0.8806
Top event classes: analyst_revision, issuer_release, price_target_consensus, price_target_summary, capital_return
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 9, analyst_forecaster: 6, issuer_wire_release: 4
Summary: 19 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (10 factual/mixed, 9 forecast/opinion); weighted event score -0.043; top events: analyst_revision, issuer_release, price_target_consensus.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
capital_return	0.0000	0.7410	0.5200	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
issuer_release	0.0000	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.0000	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.0000	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
earnings_result	0.0000	0.5218	0.6100	market_analysis	Earnings result or earnings-call readout
legal_regulatory	0.0000	0.5218	0.7000	market_analysis	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6667	0.4016
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6667	0.4016
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6667	0.4016
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5778	0.4520
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	-0.5700	0.5468
market_opinion	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	-0.0765	0.4538
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.0316	0.4288

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-22 09:13:22.776283+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.2500	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 82.00
2026-06-15 03:05:18.228086+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	negative_risk	0.2500	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 78.50
2026-06-12 12:02:35.958112+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.5778	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-01 00:00:00+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.6667	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: rating mix
2026-05-21 09:00:00+00:00	factual_event	businesswire.com	negative_risk	0.3500	-0.1833	none	Pathward Financial, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend
2026-05-13 09:00:00+00:00	unknown	gurufocus.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	KBW Names Pathward Financial to its 2026 Bank Honor Roll
2026-05-13 08:07:00+00:00	factual_event	businesswire.com	negative_risk	0.3500	-0.1833	none	KBW Names Pathward Financial to its 2026 Bank Honor Roll
2026-05-01 00:00:00+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.6667	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: rating mix

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $81.00
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	-0.7%
20 sessions	-0.3%
60 sessions	-10.3%
252 sessions	5.2%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/CASH.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4332	0.1893	0.3775	0.0557	0.0000	0.4332	pass	n/a
5	U	0.3979	0.2700	0.3322	0.0657	0.0012	0.3979	pass	n/a
10	U	0.3751	0.3102	0.3147	0.0604	-0.0008	0.3751	pass	n/a
21	F	0.3583	0.3800	0.2616	0.0967	-0.0001	0.3800	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4123	0.3339	0.2537	0.1586	0.0145	0.4123	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.4329	0.2011	0.3660	0.0669
5	0.3952	0.2893	0.3155	0.0796
10	0.3517	0.3557	0.2926	0.0591
21	0.3295	0.4596	0.2109	0.1185
63	0.4149	0.4001	0.1850	0.2299

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Loan quality, credit-loss reserves, funding costs, net interest margin, and capital ratios.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.4071	0.6567	-1	4	10-Q, 8-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.1375	0.5511	-1	4	10-Q, 144, 424B2, 424B3, 8-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: preferred_stock; recent activity forms: 144, 424B2, 424B3, S-3.
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.1167	0.7033	-1	4	10-K, 10-K/A, 10-Q, 10-Q/A, 8-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: material_weakness; positive review features: remediated_material_weakness, xbrl_positive_net_income; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0850	0.5789	-1	4	10-Q, 8-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: litigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	-0.0750	0.5233	-1	4	10-Q, 8-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: unusual_compensation.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.0150	0.6200	0	4	10-K, 10-K/A, 10-Q, 10-Q/A, 8-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; structured XBRL features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; recent activity forms: 8-K, S-3.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	10-Q, 8-K, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	10-Q, 3, 4, 8-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	10-Q, 8-K, 8-K/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	10-Q, 8-K, S-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: S-4.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
10-Q	2026-05-07	Certain relationships in the table below are over 90 days past due and still accruing	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	s of good payment history has been established or management believes the financial status of the borrower has been significantly restored. Certain relationships in the table below are over 90 days past due and still...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/2e/2e3bd24a5cd964c2ee4b475589d7a78ec69cc45f57bfad616cf91a888c74cb95.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000025/cash-20260331.htm; accession 0000907471-26-000025; cached 2026-06-02 18:11:45.206674+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-Q	2026-05-07	near matched term	accounting_high_risk	material weakness	term-context	mation relating to the Company required to be included in the Company's periodic SEC filings. The conclusion was reached as a result of the material weakness in internal control over financial reporting described in I...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/2e/2e3bd24a5cd964c2ee4b475589d7a78ec69cc45f57bfad616cf91a888c74cb95.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000025/cash-20260331.htm; accession 0000907471-26-000025; cached 2026-06-02 18:11:45.206674+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-Q	2026-05-07	near matched term	accounting_high_risk	going concern	term-context	ated values. Accordingly, the aggregate fair value estimates are not intended to represent the underlying value of the Company, on either a going concern or a liquidation basis. 37 Table of Contents The following tabl...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/2e/2e3bd24a5cd964c2ee4b475589d7a78ec69cc45f57bfad616cf91a888c74cb95.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907471/000090747126000025/cash-20260331.htm; accession 0000907471-26-000025; cached 2026-06-02 18:11:45.206674+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.2073	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.1771	0.4589	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.1384	0.7472	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0770	0.4709	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0235	0.4635	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0039	0.4635	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.0000	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Piper Sandler	analyst_revision	1	24354	0.5019	0.0005	trainable	True
Piper Sandler	analyst_revision	5	24330	0.5264	0.0024	trainable	True
Piper Sandler	analyst_revision	20	24079	0.5314	0.0099	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	5	20430	0.5286	0.0038	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	1	20430	0.5123	0.0013	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	20	20387	0.5388	0.0099	trainable	True
Zacks Investment Research	analyst_revision	1	18499	0.5233	0.0012	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0526	0.0708	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	6 feature families, 8 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0526	0.0708	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	6 feature families, 8 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0526	0.0708	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	6 feature families, 8 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0638	0.1168	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0638	0.1168	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0638	0.1168	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1163	0.0676	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Consumer spending (has_demand_driver, score -0.0433)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1163	0.0676	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Consumer spending (has_demand_driver, score -0.0433)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1163	0.0676	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Consumer spending (has_demand_driver, score -0.0433)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.0759	0.6500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles requirement 2.5390949; Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities requirement 1.5176315; Securities, commodity contracts, and investments requirement 1.9742957
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.2000	0.1800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 0, auto-linked 0, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.2800	0.8400	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	facts 9, latest filing 2026-05-07, flags low_cash_to_liabilities, fmp_sec_debt_ratio_mismatch
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0039	0.4635	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	seeking_alpha / analyst_revision hit 0.5259 samples 7318; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0235	0.4635	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0770	0.4709	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	-0.0111	0.2072	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0473	0.2307	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.0757	0.2492	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5976	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 6.6188, P/B 2.2649, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3576	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 6.6188, peer P/E 19.1264
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9131	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.1196, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4891	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 2.2649, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5846	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin 0.2251, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-09-30
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4146	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 2.2649, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0103
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6122	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.1956, PEG proxy 0.3384
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6415	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.1196, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5678	0.7500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield 0.0036, tag StockRepurchasedAndRetiredDuringPeriodValue, qtrs 4, cutoff 2024-09-30
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4454	0.8750	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 3, HHI 0.6849, loss ratio 0.1935
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6733	0.8444	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 5/5, quality pct 0.8366, latest 2025-09-30
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0570	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed True
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0556	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 3/8, quality pct , suppressed True
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1161	0.1900	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 11, latest 2026-01-30, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.5486	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0103
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6671	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5455	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7051	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.1196, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.3867	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0103
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4401	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0103, EV/EBITDA 20.9825, FCF yield 0.1196
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.9190	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0102, FCF yield 0.1196, share growth -0.0865
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6564	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0084, current ratio 7.4511, net cash/market cap 0.0574
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6044	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0139, issuance -0.0425, growth 0.1956
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6134	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.7988, ROIC 0.0103, market cap 1709420890
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6643	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0924, yield spread 0.0272, beta 0.8479
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9522	0.5333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle -0.0272, margin 0.1161, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9863	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 3.6763, base intrinsic/price 4.2451, cash-flow yield 0.1196
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff n/a, score , roots none
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff n/a, score , commodities none
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.4354	0.3800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0001, p_up 0.3583, value pct 0.7988

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0433	0.1416	1	1	unknown / review / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0433	0.1416	1	1	unknown / review / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0433	0.1416	1	1	unknown / review / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1582	0.0370	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1582	0.0370	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1582	0.0370	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred

STNG

Research Thesis

Thesis: STNG has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 59.26 and confidence 0.6329. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0983; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0526; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0330. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0310.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0983; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0526; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0330
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0310
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 6
Aggregate score: 59.26
Prediction score: 59.26
Confidence: 0.6329
Expected return estimate: -0.0168
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.5069; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0983	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6773; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0526	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.0809; confidence 0.4226; expected return -0.0168	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0330	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.8000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0310	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1717; confidence 0.4615	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0300	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0812; confidence 0.8784	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0024	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0983	+##......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0526	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0330	+#.......................	0.4226	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0310	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0300	+#.......................	0.4615	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0024	+#.......................	0.8784	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6773	0.0526	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.5069	0.0983	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.8000	-0.0310	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1271	0.0155	0.4888	-0.0023
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.0494	0.0050	0.4145	-0.0123
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0444	0.0036	0.3924	-0.0157
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.0690	0.0042	0.3576	-0.0338
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1119	0.0046	0.4027	-0.0486
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.2305	0.0121	0.5402
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1175	0.0051	0.4300
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1057	0.0037	0.3844
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.1696	0.0044	0.4790
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2657	0.0046	0.4321
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0812	0.0024	0.8784

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0983 (signal 0.5069, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0526 (signal 0.6773, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0155 (signal 0.1271, confidence 0.4888)
neural_market_horizon h1 weighted 0.0121 (signal 0.2305, confidence 0.5402)
neural_market_horizon h5 weighted 0.0051 (signal 0.1175, confidence 0.4300)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6329.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0310 (signal -0.8000, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-20	21	-1.0000	0.9100	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=465
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-20	21	-1.0000	0.9066	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=113
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-20	21	-1.0000	0.8730	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=68
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.6875	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 0.4456, indices 4/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-20	21	-1.0000	0.6376	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=6
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6282	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.7444	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=High negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, going_concern, impairment, material_weakness, restatement.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-20	21	-0.4908	0.6190	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=7
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4071	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3650	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2500	0.6022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: negative review features: bankruptcy_event; recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2500	0.6011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-03-20	21	-0.1573	0.6465	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=7
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-20	21	-0.2045	0.3509	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=2
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-20, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0750	0.5233	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B3, 424B4, 424B5, 424B7, 424B8, F-1, F-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0400	0.5122	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: recent activity forms: F-1, F-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0217	0.6653	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 1/2, quality pct 0.5109, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.0100	0.5500	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-28	sector=Energy; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Oil & Gas Midstream
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0703	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.1667
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0532	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4578	0.7441	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=16
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.3088	0.5502	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=22
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.4145	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2800	0.4940	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.7400	0.1823	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_financing_liquidity_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0873	0.7847	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=8
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0989	0.5791	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=19

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-18	908	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label High.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-22 09:05:08.435128+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:12.593197+00:00	590	31 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Scorpio Tankers Inc.
Classification: Energy / Energy Candidate
Scoring model: Energy
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$76.08	Market cap	$3.94B
P/E	4.07	P/S	11.26
P/B	1.03	P/FCF	40.83
FCF yield	2.4%	Revenue growth YoY	46.2%
Gross margin	61.6%	Operating margin	49.1%
Net margin	69.1%	ROE	6.3%
Debt / equity	0.17	Current ratio	10.00
Net cash / market cap	10.2%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$95.03M

Score	Value
Valuation	74.56
Growth	90.72
Profitability	86.22
Balance sheet	80.65
Cash flow	77.86
Total fundamental	77.35
Basic risk flags	20.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	75.35

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 4.07.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 46.2%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

Commodity exposure - review price sensitivity

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: 4.8%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: 0.0%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
KNTK	1	yes	$3.39B	44.54	n/a	8.80	n/a	2.9%
PAGP	2	yes	$4.94B	43.05	60.09	0.39	3.77	6.0%
GLNG	3	yes	$5.15B	44.37	20.07	48.78	3.51	-0.9%
TRMD	4	yes	$2.86B	50.14	5.87	7.15	1.25	-1.6%
DKL	5	yes	$2.70B	62.05	20.58	8.95	n/a	4.6%
DHT	6	yes	$2.68B	51.55	4.47	15.78	2.39	-2.2%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-18	6-K	2026-06-18 20:17:51+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000162828026044319/0001628280-26-044319-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000162828026044319/stng6k-06182026.htm)
2026-06-18	6-K	2026-06-18 16:17:51+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000162828026044319/0001628280-26-044319-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000162828026044319/stng6k-06182026.htm)
2026-06-11	4	2026-06-11 16:37:29+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000196945226000008/0001969452-26-000008-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000196945226000008/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-11	4	2026-06-11 15:39:01+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000199513726000011/0001995137-26-000011-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000199513726000011/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-11	4	2026-06-11 12:37:29+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000196945226000008/0001969452-26-000008-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000196945226000008/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-11	4	2026-06-11 11:39:01+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000199513726000011/0001995137-26-000011-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000199513726000011/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-11	4	2026-06-11 10:33:05+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210403626000003/0002104036-26-000003-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210403626000003/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-11	4	2026-06-11 06:33:05+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210403626000003/0002104036-26-000003-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210403626000003/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-05	4	2026-06-05 16:49:09+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210927126000002/0002109271-26-000002-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210927126000002/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-05	4	2026-06-05 12:49:09+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210927126000002/0002109271-26-000002-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000210927126000002/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 80.00
Governance review label: High
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (5 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Selling-stockholder, resale, or secondary-offering language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (5 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Selling-stockholder, resale, or secondary-offering language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Selling / Resale	Control	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	6-K	0	0	0	0	0
2	6-K	0	0	0	0	0
3	6-K	0	0	0	0	0
4	20-F	5	1	1	4	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-22 09:05:08.435128+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0812
Confidence: 0.8784
Top event classes: issuer_release, financing_liquidity, analyst_revision, price_target_summary, price_target_consensus
Publisher mix: issuer_wire_release: 7, analyst_forecaster: 6, market_analysis: 6, unknown: 1
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (13 factual/mixed, 7 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.081; top events: issuer_release, financing_liquidity, analyst_revision.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
financing_liquidity	0.7400	0.7410	0.7400	issuer_wire_release	Financing, liquidity, restructuring, or solvency event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.7410	0.5600	issuer_wire_release	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
analyst_revision	organization	B of A Securities	organization-level	1.0000	0.6556
analyst_revision	organization	B of A Securities	organization-level	1.0000	0.6556
analyst_revision	organization	B of A Securities	organization-level	1.0000	0.6556
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.7205	0.4413
analyst_revision	organization	Defense World	organization-level	-0.6900	0.5968
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6876	0.4538
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5242	0.6368
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5032	0.6368

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-22 09:05:08.435128+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.7205	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 98.00
2026-06-22 08:57:10.895690+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.5242	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-20 05:18:49+00:00	unknown	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG) Upgraded at Wall Street Zen
2026-06-18 07:00:09.456127+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.3590	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 87.00
2026-06-18 06:44:00+00:00	factual_event	globenewswire.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.1200	none	Scorpio Tankers Inc. Announces Update on Second Quarter 2026 TCE Rates
2026-06-05 01:04:31.707662+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.6876	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 97.00
2026-06-03 16:03:59.275005+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.5032	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-03 06:00:00+00:00	factual_event	businesswire.com	neutral_watch	0.7000	0.0000	autos_ev_batteries	DNV Confirms Carbon Ridge's Centrifugal OCCS System Reaches Peak CO2 Capture Rate of 98% in Scorpio Tankers Pilot

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 4,076
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $78.04
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	2.1%
20 sessions	-5.7%
60 sessions	13.8%
252 sessions	89.3%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/STNG.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4888	0.1495	0.3617	0.1271	-0.0023	0.4888	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4145	0.2205	0.3650	0.0494	-0.0123	0.4145	pass	n/a
10	U	0.3924	0.2597	0.3480	0.0444	-0.0157	0.3924	pass	n/a
21	F	0.3557	0.3576	0.2867	0.0690	-0.0338	0.3576	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4027	0.3064	0.2909	0.1119	-0.0486	0.4027	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5402	0.1500	0.3097	0.2305
5	0.4300	0.2574	0.3126	0.1175
10	0.3844	0.3368	0.2787	0.1057
21	0.3453	0.4790	0.1757	0.1696
63	0.4321	0.4015	0.1664	0.2657

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.7444	0.6567	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	High negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, going_concern, impairment, material_weakness, restatement.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.4071	0.6567	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.3650	0.6567	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	-0.2500	0.6022	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Material Event Intelligence: negative review features: bankruptcy_event; recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	-0.2500	0.6011	-1	4	20-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0750	0.5233	-1	4	144, 20-F, 424B3, 424B4, 424B5	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B3, 424B4, 424B5, 424B7, 424B8, F-1, F-3.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.0400	0.5122	0	4	20-F, 6-K, F-1, F-3	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: recent activity forms: F-1, F-3.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	20-F, 6-K, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	20-F, 3, 4, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	20-F, 6-K, F-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
20-F	2026-03-20	RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 88 ITEM 8	related_party	related party	section-supported	TEM 5. OPERATING AND FINANCIAL REVIEW AND PROSPECTS 58 ITEM 6. DIRECTORS, SENIOR MANAGEMENT AND EMPLOYEES 81 ITEM 7. MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 88 ITEM 8. FINANCIAL INFORMATION 94 ITEM 9. OFFER...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e7/e76e689641a896ede765c46ea6c19408ec5977b3586b406abddeb4893547d8c5.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000148393426000021/stng-20251231.htm; accession 0001483934-26-000021; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.606710+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
20-F	2026-03-20	near matched term	related_party	transactions with related	term-context	non-independent directors and certain of our executive officers serve in senior management positions in certain Scorpio group of companies. Transactions with Related Parties Transactions with entities controlled by th...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e7/e76e689641a896ede765c46ea6c19408ec5977b3586b406abddeb4893547d8c5.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000148393426000021/stng-20251231.htm; accession 0001483934-26-000021; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.606710+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
20-F	2026-03-20	near matched term	related_party	amounts due from	term-context	es any dividend or interest earned on the financial asset. Fair value is determined in the manner described in Note 24. Accounts receivable Amounts due from the Scorpio Pools (defined in Note 5) and other receivables...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e7/e76e689641a896ede765c46ea6c19408ec5977b3586b406abddeb4893547d8c5.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1483934/000148393426000021/stng-20251231.htm; accession 0001483934-26-000021; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.606710+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.4578	0.7441	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.4145	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.3088	0.5502	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_product_contract_event	event	1	0.2800	0.4940	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0989	0.5791	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_financing_liquidity_event	event	1	0.0873	0.7847	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0770	0.5593	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0103	0.5593	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.0000	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	1	63163	0.5034	0.0002	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	5	63138	0.5145	0.0020	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	20	62628	0.5441	0.0095	trainable	True
JP Morgan	analyst_revision	1	31260	0.5009	0.0006	trainable	True
JP Morgan	analyst_revision	5	31226	0.5243	0.0021	trainable	True
JP Morgan	analyst_revision	20	30839	0.5339	0.0081	trainable	True
UBS	analyst_revision	1	29483	0.5264	0.0012	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	0.0496	0.0429	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	7 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	0.0496	0.0429	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	7 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	0.0496	0.0429	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	7 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.2653	0.0427	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729); Mining Labor Costs (has_cost_driver, score -0.1070)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.2653	0.0427	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729); Mining Labor Costs (has_cost_driver, score -0.1070)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.2653	0.0427	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729); Mining Labor Costs (has_cost_driver, score -0.1070)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.2729	0.0103	enabled=False; unknown/review; cutoff 2026-01-01	Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.2729	0.0103	enabled=False; unknown/review; cutoff 2026-01-01	Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.2729	0.0103	enabled=False; unknown/review; cutoff 2026-01-01	Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	0.1189	0.1134	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159); Gasoline (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.4057); Coal (sensitive_to_price_of, score -0.4966)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	0.1189	0.1134	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159); Gasoline (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.4057); Coal (sensitive_to_price_of, score -0.4966)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	0.1189	0.1134	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159); Gasoline (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.4057); Coal (sensitive_to_price_of, score -0.4966)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	0.0331	0.7000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Petroleum and coal products requirement 2.2722771; Pipeline transportation requirement 1.573605; Support activities for mining requirement 1.6230144
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0800	0.5600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-20	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-20, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0103	0.5593	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / analyst_revision hit 0.5402 samples 5175; defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.4645 samples 1266; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0770	0.5593	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0989	0.5791	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	b_of_a_securities / analyst_revision hit 0.5342 samples 23210; b_of_a_securities / analyst_revision hit 0.5342 samples 23210; b_of_a_securities / analyst_revision hit 0.5342 samples 23210
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5827	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 4.0731, P/B 1.0332, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5935	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 4.0731, peer P/E 22.2170
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6120	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0245, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5852	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 1.0332, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7424	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin 1.3123, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6306	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 1.0332, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0385
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6033	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.4621, PEG proxy 0.0881
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0937	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0245, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0703	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.1667
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0217	0.6653	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 1/2, quality pct 0.5109, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0532	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.6875	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 0.4456, indices 4/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0648	0.1200	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 3, latest 2025-10-14, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7250	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0385
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.4100	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 20.0000, flags Commodity exposure - review price sensitivity
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6282	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5812	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0245, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.5924	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0385
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7432	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0385, EV/EBITDA 15.9956, FCF yield 0.0245
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6057	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0531, FCF yield 0.0245, share growth 0.0481
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6651	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.1426, current ratio 10.0000, net cash/market cap 0.1024
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5132	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance 0.0000, growth 0.4621
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3414	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.7913, ROIC 0.0385, market cap 3937854852
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2355	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.1074, yield spread -0.0829, beta 1.0000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6727	0.2333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0829, margin 0.0726, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7355	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin -0.2969, base intrinsic/price 0.6678, cash-flow yield 0.0245
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.3667	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score -0.3667, roots NG, CL
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0484	0.6902	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-15, score -0.0484, commodities commodity:coal, commodity:propane, commodity:gasoline, commodity:crude_oil
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.2340	0.3576	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0338, p_up 0.3557, value pct 0.7913

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1260	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4590
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1260	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4590
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1260	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4590
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0353	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4200
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0353	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4200
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0353	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4200
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Gasoline	0.4057	0.0827	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Gasoline	0.4057	0.0827	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Gasoline	0.4057	0.0827	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Coal	-0.4966	0.0568	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4250
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Coal	-0.4966	0.0568	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4250
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Coal	-0.4966	0.0568	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4250

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	0.6159	0.0524	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	0.6159	0.0524	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	0.6159	0.0524	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0123	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0123	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0123	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	1	commodity	0.0502	0.1346	1	1	current / review / source_supported
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	5	commodity	0.0502	0.1346	1	1	current / review / source_supported
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	20	commodity	0.0502	0.1346	1	1	current / review / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.2729	0.0155	1	1	unknown / review / source_supported

ARIS

Research Thesis

Thesis: ARIS has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 59.25 and confidence 0.6564. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0814; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0451; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0429. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0116; Liquidity Dilution Risk contributed -0.0073.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0814; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0451; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0429
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0116; Liquidity Dilution Risk contributed -0.0073
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 7
Aggregate score: 59.25
Prediction score: 59.25
Confidence: 0.6564
Expected return estimate: -0.0047
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Other Precious Metals
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.4194; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0814	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.5808; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0451	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1052; confidence 0.4628; expected return -0.0047	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0429	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1806; confidence 0.5018	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0315	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.3000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0116	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.1500; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution -0.0073	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.1039; confidence 0.8806	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0030	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0814	+##......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0451	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0429	+#.......................	0.4628	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0315	+#.......................	0.5018	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0116	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	-0.0073	-#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0030	+#.......................	0.8806	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.5808	0.0451	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.4194	0.0814	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.3000	-0.0116	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	-0.1500	-0.0073	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1043	0.0127	0.4856	0.0089
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1089	0.0111	0.4734	0.0065
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0802	0.0065	0.4426	-0.0016
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1107	0.0068	0.4281	-0.0185
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1404	0.0057	0.4603	-0.0586
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1587	0.0083	0.5257
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1867	0.0081	0.5199
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1370	0.0048	0.4622
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2084	0.0055	0.4616
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2768	0.0048	0.5238
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.1039	0.0030	0.8806

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0814 (signal 0.4194, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0451 (signal 0.5808, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0127 (signal 0.1043, confidence 0.4856)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0111 (signal 0.1089, confidence 0.4734)
neural_market_horizon h1 weighted 0.0083 (signal 0.1587, confidence 0.5257)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6564.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0116 (signal -0.3000, confidence 0.8500)
liquidity_dilution_risk h1 weighted -0.0073 (signal -0.1500, confidence 1.0000)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-11	21	-1.0000	0.9100	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=124
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-11	21	-1.0000	0.8971	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=98
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-11	21	-1.0000	0.7942	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=31
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4880	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-11	21	-0.4142	0.4401	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-11	21	-0.3022	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-11	21	-0.2139	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1375	0.6311	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase; structured XBRL features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-11, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0850	0.5789	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: litigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-03-11	21	-0.0890	0.5452	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=3
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.0768	0.5500	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-28	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Other Precious Metals
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0716	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.7059
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 0/5, suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 0/8, quality pct , suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 0/0, quality pct , latest n/a
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.3640	0.7577	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=6
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.5930	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4211	0.4868	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=6
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	5	0.1738	0.5223	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=7
News / Forecast	news_earnings_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.6679	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
Valuation	magic_formula_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.7565	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0444, EV/EBITDA 21.0390, FCF yield 0.0246
Valuation	peer_relative_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6877	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 9.7958, peer P/E 35.3288

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-05-15	144	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-22 09:13:15.617435+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:15.617435+00:00	403	17 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Aris Mining Corporation
Classification: Operating Companies / General Value Candidate
Scoring model: default
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$17.83	Market cap	$3.68B
P/E	9.80	P/S	10.27
P/B	2.43	P/FCF	40.66
FCF yield	2.5%	Revenue growth YoY	136.5%
Gross margin	58.3%	Operating margin	48.1%
Net margin	26.2%	ROE	6.2%
Debt / equity	0.35	Current ratio	1.78
Net cash / market cap	-2.0%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$30.43M

Score	Value
Valuation	64.20
Growth	96.89
Profitability	82.60
Balance sheet	58.72
Cash flow	77.94
Total fundamental	70.97
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	70.97

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 9.80.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 136.5%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low / Watch
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 15.00
Shares growth YoY: 21.4%
Stock compensation / revenue: 2.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: 0.1%

share count grew at least 10% year over year

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
PPTA	1	yes	$3.29B	43.62	n/a	n/a	4.30	-1.3%
TFPM	2	yes	$6.31B	67.03	15.55	49.46	3.33	1.1%
MUX	3	yes	$1.30B	60.51	9.00	16.23	1.84	-0.2%
ASM	4	yes	$1.19B	66.26	16.77	25.42	3.81	1.0%
MTA	5	yes	$721.38M	51.71	100.00	50.00	2.43	0.2%
ALOY	6	yes	$684.37M	42.53	n/a	50.00	5.05	-2.1%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-05-15	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-15 20:30:00+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000110465926062623/0001104659-26-062623-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000110465926062623/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SC 13G/A	2026-05-15 16:30:00+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000110465926062623/0001104659-26-062623-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1304857/000110465926062623/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-07 20:41:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000784/0001753926-26-000784-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000784/g085712_6k.htm)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-07 20:37:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000110465926057214/0001104659-26-057214-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000110465926057214/tm2613872d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-07 16:41:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000784/0001753926-26-000784-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000784/g085712_6k.htm)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-07 16:37:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000110465926057214/0001104659-26-057214-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000110465926057214/tm2613872d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-06 21:10:41+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000778/0001753926-26-000778-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000778/g085708_6k.htm)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-06 21:04:38+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000196450426000021/0001964504-26-000021-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000196450426000021/arismining-6xkq12026.htm)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-06 17:10:41+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000778/0001753926-26-000778-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000175392626000778/g085708_6k.htm)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-06 17:04:38+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000196450426000021/0001964504-26-000021-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000196450426000021/arismining-mdaq12026.htm)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 30.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Accounting Boilerplate
1	6-K	0	0
2	6-K	0	0
3	6-K	2	1
4	6-K	0	0

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-22 09:13:15.617435+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.1039
Confidence: 0.8806
Top event classes: issuer_release, market_opinion, analyst_revision, earnings_result, price_target_consensus
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 11, issuer_wire_release: 6, analyst_forecaster: 3
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (12 factual/mixed, 8 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.104; top events: issuer_release, market_opinion, analyst_revision.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.0000	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
earnings_result	0.0000	0.7410	0.6100	issuer_wire_release	Earnings result or earnings-call readout
issuer_release	0.0000	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
earnings_result	0.0000	0.7410	0.6100	issuer_wire_release	Earnings result or earnings-call readout

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.4538
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.7656	0.3743
analyst_revision	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	0.6300	0.5718
market_opinion	organization	GuruFocus	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	GuruFocus	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.5354
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.2708	0.4772
analyst_revision	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	0.0000	0.5218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-22 09:13:15.617435+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.7656	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 23.29
2026-06-20 19:27:06.789901+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 26.00
2026-06-18 05:56:04+00:00	opinion_forecast	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	New Strong Sell Stocks for June 18th
2026-06-13 07:25:09.310255+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.2708	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-03 20:41:00+00:00	opinion_forecast	gurufocus.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Aris Mining Corp (ARIS) Shares Fall 4.3% -- GF Value Says Still Overvalued
2026-05-29 18:35:00+00:00	unknown	gurufocus.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Aris Mining Corp (ARIS) Shares Surge 5.8% -- What GF Score of 63 Tells Investors
2026-05-19 19:57:00+00:00	opinion_forecast	gurufocus.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Aris Mining Corp (ARIS) Stock Down 6.0% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 64/100
2026-05-08 10:40:40+00:00	unknown	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Are Basic Materials Stocks Lagging Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) This Year?

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 3,721
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $17.08
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	20.1%
20 sessions	-13.4%
60 sessions	-3.2%
252 sessions	159.6%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/ARIS.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4856	0.1331	0.3813	0.1043	0.0089	0.4856	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4734	0.1621	0.3645	0.1089	0.0065	0.4734	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4426	0.1951	0.3623	0.0802	-0.0016	0.4426	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4281	0.2544	0.3175	0.1107	-0.0185	0.4281	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4603	0.2198	0.3199	0.1404	-0.0586	0.4603	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5257	0.1072	0.3670	0.1587
5	0.5199	0.1469	0.3332	0.1867
10	0.4622	0.2125	0.3252	0.1370
21	0.4616	0.2852	0.2532	0.2084
63	0.5238	0.2293	0.2470	0.2768

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.1375	0.6311	-1	4	40-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase; structured XBRL features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0850	0.5789	-1	4	6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: litigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	6-K, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	3, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Accounting Quality: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
6-K	2026-05-06	related party transactions	related_party	related party	section-supported	tions and compensation in the form of salaries or directors’ fees, and share-based payments (options, PSUs and DSUs) there were no material related party transactions. Page \| 13 Management's Discussion and Analysis Fo...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e2/e24e5c1fd36a9e023c12bc5473a3b8b055d5ea2dcade7d8165d36a05553a6ee0.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000196450426000021/arismining-mdaq12026.htm; filing hash 1083ab9743a34ad8870e39b551740db39152f13e4a6b6673e4b56659cd64f7c0; cached 2026-06-12 09:46:26.479445+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
6-K	2026-05-06	near matched term	related_party	transactions with related	term-context	ancial Results 11 Financial Condition, Liquidity and Capital Resources 13 Summary of Quarterly Results 13 Off-balance Sheet Arrangements 13 Transactions with Related Parties 13 Financial Instruments and Financial Risk...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e2/e24e5c1fd36a9e023c12bc5473a3b8b055d5ea2dcade7d8165d36a05553a6ee0.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964504/000196450426000021/arismining-mdaq12026.htm; filing hash 1083ab9743a34ad8870e39b551740db39152f13e4a6b6673e4b56659cd64f7c0; cached 2026-06-12 09:46:26.479445+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.4211	0.4868	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.3640	0.7577	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.5930	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.1738	0.5223	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0813	0.5656	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0182	0.5223	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.6679	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	1	43084	0.5173	0.0011	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	5	43025	0.5267	0.0028	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	20	42580	0.5383	0.0089	trainable	True
Wells Fargo	analyst_revision	1	38518	0.5066	0.0007	trainable	True
Wells Fargo	analyst_revision	5	38508	0.5316	0.0045	trainable	True
Wells Fargo	analyst_revision	20	37995	0.5408	0.0112	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	1	35619	0.5107	0.0009	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0800	0.5600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-11	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-11, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0182	0.5223	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	zacks_investment_research / analyst_revision hit 0.5233 samples 18499; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.5203 samples 791; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.1738	0.5223	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260; zacks_investment_research / analyst_revision hit 0.5293 samples 18448
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0813	0.5656	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	zacks_investment_research / analyst_revision hit 0.5357 samples 18124; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; zacks_investment_research / market_opinion hit 0.4892 samples 6814
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4111	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 9.7958, P/B 2.4335, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6877	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 9.7958, peer P/E 35.3288
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6122	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0246, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0921	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 2.4335, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3599	0.6000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.0285, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff n/a
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4945	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 2.4335, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0444
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6316	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 1.3645, PEG proxy 0.0718
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.5436	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0246, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0716	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.7059
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 0/0, quality pct , latest n/a
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 0/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 0/8, quality pct , suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4746	0.3800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 1, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7063	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0444
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.3153	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4880	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2238	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0246, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.4707	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0444
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7565	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0444, EV/EBITDA 21.0390, FCF yield 0.0246
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.4538	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0359, FCF yield 0.0246, share growth 0.2136
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.3692	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.2004, current ratio 1.7833, net cash/market cap -0.0196
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-0.2678	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0204, issuance 0.0007, growth 1.3645
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1949	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.7055, ROIC 0.0444, market cap 3678329000
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1827	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.1103, yield spread -0.0857, beta 1.0000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6622	0.2333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0857, margin 0.0793, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7192	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin -0.3285, base intrinsic/price 0.6413, cash-flow yield 0.0246
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.3972	0.4281	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0185, p_up 0.4281, value pct 0.7055

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0420	0.0359	5	5	current / review / inferred

KGC

Research Thesis

Thesis: KGC has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 59.04 and confidence 0.6709. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0596; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0551; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0508. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0194.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0596; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0551; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0508
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0194
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 8
Aggregate score: 59.04
Prediction score: 59.04
Confidence: 0.6709
Expected return estimate: 0.0083
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.3071; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0596	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Material support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1352; confidence 0.4878; expected return 0.0083	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0551	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6543; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0508	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1831; confidence 0.5278	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0320	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.5000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0194	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0992; confidence 0.8746	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0029	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0596	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0551	+#.......................	0.4878	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0508	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0320	+#.......................	0.5278	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0194	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0029	+#.......................	0.8746	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6543	0.0508	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.3071	0.0596	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.5000	-0.0194	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1112	0.0136	0.5011	0.0057
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1506	0.0153	0.5010	0.0119
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.1265	0.0103	0.4736	0.0111
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1517	0.0093	0.4636	0.0072
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1618	0.0066	0.4801	0.0036
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1328	0.0070	0.5287
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1945	0.0085	0.5416
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1603	0.0056	0.5033
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2478	0.0065	0.5251
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2544	0.0044	0.5433
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0992	0.0029	0.8746

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0596 (signal 0.3071, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0508 (signal 0.6543, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0153 (signal 0.1506, confidence 0.5010)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0136 (signal 0.1112, confidence 0.5011)
markov_state_blend h10 weighted 0.0103 (signal 0.1265, confidence 0.4736)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6709.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0194 (signal -0.5000, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-1.0000	0.8944	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=94
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-1.0000	0.8720	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=67
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-1.0000	0.8103	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=26
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-1.0000	0.7710	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=14
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-0.9482	0.8000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=123
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6301	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4111	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, material_weakness, restatement.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3571	0.6289	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, risk_factor_language.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-0.3022	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-03-26	21	-0.1153	0.5876	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-26, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.0625	0.5500	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Gold
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0250	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0677	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.2083
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 0/5, suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 0/8, quality pct , suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 0/0, quality pct , latest n/a
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4385	0.5518	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=27
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2147	0.6160	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=5
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4800	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_operational_labor_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5800	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1176	0.5766	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=4
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	5	0.0560	0.5711	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=26
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5449	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-01	1020	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Medium.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-19 10:47:08+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:08.573370+00:00	649	29 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Kinross Gold Corporation
Classification: Mining / Critical Materials / Mining / Critical Materials Candidate
Scoring model: Mining
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$29.07	Market cap	$34.71B
P/E	11.01	P/S	15.42
P/B	4.01	P/FCF	43.82
FCF yield	2.3%	Revenue growth YoY	58.6%
Gross margin	57.8%	Operating margin	55.1%
Net margin	35.0%	ROE	9.1%
Debt / equity	0.08	Current ratio	2.84
Net cash / market cap	4.2%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$264.03M

Score	Value
Valuation	54.36
Growth	92.71
Profitability	86.13
Balance sheet	75.91
Cash flow	76.11
Total fundamental	65.35
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	65.35

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 11.01.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 58.6%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: -2.5%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -0.7%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
FNV	1	yes	$43.68B	61.42	25.41	50.00	5.86	0.1%
WPM	2	yes	$58.15B	63.17	25.91	50.00	6.41	1.2%
B	3	yes	$69.27B	65.51	10.81	13.20	2.49	2.4%
AGI	4	yes	$16.33B	59.19	24.71	31.70	4.04	0.3%
RGLD	5	yes	$15.15B	62.73	19.17	45.96	2.91	1.4%
AEM	6	yes	$87.26B	63.14	14.97	24.77	3.86	0.7%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-01	6-K	2026-06-01 11:00:05+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326003817/0001171843-26-003817-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326003817/f6k_060126.htm)
2026-06-01	6-K	2026-06-01 07:00:05+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326003817/0001171843-26-003817-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326003817/f6k_060126.htm)
2026-05-26	6-K	2026-05-26 13:52:41+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926066086/0001104659-26-066086-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926066086/tm2615580d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-26	6-K	2026-05-26 09:52:41+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926066086/0001104659-26-066086-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926066086/tm2615580d1_6k.htm)
2026-04-30	6-K	2026-04-30 21:00:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002899/0001171843-26-002899-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002899/f6k_043026.htm)
2026-04-30	6-K	2026-04-30 17:00:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002899/0001171843-26-002899-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002899/f6k_043026.htm)
2026-04-29	6-K	2026-04-29 21:04:58+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926051672/0001104659-26-051672-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926051672/tm2612415d1_6k.htm)
2026-04-29	6-K	2026-04-29 21:00:06+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002837/0001171843-26-002837-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002837/f6k_042926.htm)
2026-04-29	6-K	2026-04-29 21:00:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002835/0001171843-26-002835-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000117184326002835/f6k_042926.htm)
2026-04-29	6-K	2026-04-29 17:04:58+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926051672/0001104659-26-051672-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926051672/tm2612415d1_ex99-1.htm)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 50.00
Governance review label: Medium
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	40-F	0	2	2
2	40-F	0	2	2
3	40-F	1	2	2
4	40-F	0	2	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-19 10:47:08+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0992
Confidence: 0.8746
Top event classes: analyst_revision, price_target_consensus, corporate_action, price_target_summary, market_opinion
Publisher mix: analyst_forecaster: 11, market_analysis: 7, unknown: 2
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (8 factual/mixed, 12 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.099; top events: analyst_revision, price_target_consensus, corporate_action.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
labor_restructuring	0.5800	0.5218	0.5800	market_analysis	Restructuring, layoffs, cost actions, or operational disruption
capital_return	0.5200	0.5218	0.5200	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
financing_liquidity	0.0000	0.7660	0.8000	issuer_wire_release	Financing, liquidity, restructuring, or solvency event
capital_return	0.0000	0.7410	0.5200	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
corporate_action	0.0000	0.5910	0.6800	unknown	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
corporate_action	0.0000	0.5218	0.6800	market_analysis	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
capital_return	0.0000	0.5218	0.5200	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.3910
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.3776
analyst_revision	organization	Freedom Broker	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	Freedom Broker	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	Freedom Broker	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	Freedom Broker	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	Freedom Broker	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	Freedom Broker	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-19 10:47:08+00:00	unknown	zacks.com	positive	0.8000	0.2167	commodities_mining	Why Kinross Gold (KGC) is a Top Growth Stock for the Long-Term
2026-06-19 07:14:56+00:00	factual_event	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Alberta Investment Management Corp Has $18.30 Million Holdings in Kinross Gold Corporation $KGC
2026-06-18 06:54:01.005790+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.6820	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 37.00
2026-06-17 06:14:44.102899+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 45.33
2026-06-16 10:40:56+00:00	unknown	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Here's Why Kinross Gold (KGC) is a Strong Value Stock
2026-06-08 10:49:16.926168+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.3138	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-05 01:13:22.794546+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 42.25
2026-06-03 12:37:24+00:00	unknown	schaeffersresearch.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Gold Stock Finds Key Support at Bullish Trendline

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $27.28
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	15.3%
20 sessions	-11.7%
60 sessions	-5.8%
252 sessions	78.8%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/KGC.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.5011	0.1089	0.3900	0.1112	0.0057	0.5011	pass	n/a
5	U	0.5010	0.1485	0.3504	0.1506	0.0119	0.5010	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4736	0.1794	0.3470	0.1265	0.0111	0.4736	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4636	0.2245	0.3119	0.1517	0.0072	0.4636	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4801	0.2017	0.3183	0.1618	0.0036	0.4801	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5287	0.0754	0.3959	0.1328
5	0.5416	0.1113	0.3471	0.1945
10	0.5033	0.1537	0.3430	0.1603
21	0.5251	0.1976	0.2773	0.2478
63	0.5433	0.1678	0.2889	0.2544

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.4111	0.6567	-1	4	40-F	Medium negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, material_weakness, restatement.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.3571	0.6289	-1	4	40-F	Medium negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, risk_factor_language.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0250	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 424B3	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	40-F, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	3, 40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, F-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
40-F	2024-03-27	near matched term	related_party	guaranteed by	term-context	cipal amount of 6.250% senior notes due 2033. The notes are senior unsecured obligations of Kinross and are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by certain of Kinross’ wholly-owned subsidiaries that are also gua...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/1f/1f5c8bbbab2e03173cda7338aaa95bec72c203264621c46e78e6e1238b1a1904.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465924039723/kgc-20231231x40f.htm; accession 0001104659-24-039723; cached 2026-06-03 02:13:42.966064+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_operational_labor_event	event	1	0.5800	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.4800	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.4385	0.5518	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.2147	0.6160	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.1176	0.5766	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0560	0.5711	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0185	0.5711	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0179	0.5930	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.0000	0.5449	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_financing_liquidity_event	event	1	0.0000	0.2553	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	1	43084	0.5173	0.0011	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	5	43025	0.5267	0.0028	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	20	42580	0.5383	0.0089	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	1	35619	0.5107	0.0009	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	5	35593	0.5263	0.0027	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	20	35218	0.5439	0.0117	trainable	True
JP Morgan	analyst_revision	1	31260	0.5009	0.0006	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0560	0.6600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 2, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-26	facts 2, latest filing 2026-03-26, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0185	0.5711	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500; defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.4645 samples 1266
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0560	0.5711	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0179	0.5930	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	-0.0092	0.2060	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0590	0.2384	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.0922	0.2599	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2534	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 11.0091, P/B 4.0105, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5210	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 11.0091, peer P/E 20.1646
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5864	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0228, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1942	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 4.0105, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1998	0.6000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.2861, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff n/a
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5664	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 4.0105, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0729
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5120	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.5855, PEG proxy 0.1880
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5776	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0228, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0677	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.2083
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 0/0, quality pct , latest n/a
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 0/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 0/8, quality pct , suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0324	0.1000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7808	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0729
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.3206	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6301	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4891	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0228, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7919	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0729
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8116	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0729, EV/EBITDA 22.0818, FCF yield 0.0228
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7176	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0643, FCF yield 0.0228, share growth -0.0245
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6400	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0573, current ratio 2.8422, net cash/market cap 0.0422
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.4018	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance -0.0071, growth 0.5855
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4248	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.6267, ROIC 0.0729, market cap 34712762089
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8253	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0721, yield spread -0.0492, beta 0.2000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8387	0.5333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0492, margin 0.1158, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9090	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 0.4664, base intrinsic/price 1.3492, cash-flow yield 0.0228
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.5727	0.4636	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return 0.0072, p_up 0.4636, value pct 0.6267

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0420	0.0359	5	5	current / review / inferred

PAAS

Research Thesis

Thesis: PAAS has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 58.83 and confidence 0.6618. The positive case is driven by Markov State Blend contributed 0.0573; Fundamental Value contributed 0.0528; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0453. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0097; Liquidity Dilution Risk contributed -0.0073.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Markov State Blend contributed 0.0573; Fundamental Value contributed 0.0528; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0453
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0097; Liquidity Dilution Risk contributed -0.0073
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 9
Aggregate score: 58.83
Prediction score: 58.83
Confidence: 0.6618
Expected return estimate: 0.0083
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Silver
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Markov State Blend	Material support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1406; confidence 0.4742; expected return 0.0083	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0573	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.2719; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0528	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.5843; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0453	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.2033; confidence 0.5075	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0355	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.2500; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0097	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.1500; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution -0.0073	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0951; confidence 0.8731	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0028	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0573	+#.......................	0.4742	current/eligible
fundamental_value	value	0.0528	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0453	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0355	+#.......................	0.5075	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0097	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	-0.0073	-#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0028	+#.......................	0.8731	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.5843	0.0453	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.2719	0.0528	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.2500	-0.0097	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	-0.1500	-0.0073	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1149	0.0140	0.4971	0.0057
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1499	0.0153	0.4865	0.0119
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.1332	0.0109	0.4577	0.0111
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1508	0.0092	0.4337	0.0072
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1940	0.0079	0.4688	0.0036
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1367	0.0072	0.5204
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.2041	0.0089	0.5206
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1831	0.0064	0.4767
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2657	0.0070	0.4754
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.3478	0.0061	0.5459
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0951	0.0028	0.8731

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0528 (signal 0.2719, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0453 (signal 0.5843, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0153 (signal 0.1499, confidence 0.4865)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0140 (signal 0.1149, confidence 0.4971)
markov_state_blend h10 weighted 0.0109 (signal 0.1332, confidence 0.4577)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6618.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0097 (signal -0.2500, confidence 0.8500)
liquidity_dilution_risk h1 weighted -0.0073 (signal -0.1500, confidence 1.0000)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7188	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 1.1636, indices 5/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.5067	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3833	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, impairment, restatement.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.3181	0.6417	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 2/3, quality pct 0.6590, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.2786	0.5500	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Silver
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1857	0.5622	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, liquidity_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1375	0.6311	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase; structured XBRL features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	facts 2, latest filing 2026-02-18, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0674	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.0952
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4790	0.5436	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=23
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.6218	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2823	0.5949	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1980	0.7241	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=10
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-10	1	0.5600	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-10	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5200	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1017	0.5755	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=20
News / Forecast	news_earnings_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_macro_sector_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.0000	0.1627	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5449	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
Valuation	explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.8609	0.8000	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 0.1073, base intrinsic/price 1.0129, cash-flow yield 0.0174
Valuation	magic_formula_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6603	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0429, EV/EBITDA 28.7861, FCF yield 0.0174
Valuation	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.7709	0.8000	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0725, yield spread -0.0551, beta 0.2000
Valuation	residual_income_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4826	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 3.1338, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0429

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-01	925	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-20 09:15:01+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:16.790519+00:00	607	27 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Pan American Silver Corp.
Classification: Mining / Critical Materials / Mining / Critical Materials Candidate
Scoring model: Mining
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$55.74	Market cap	$23.49B
P/E	12.61	P/S	19.97
P/B	3.13	P/FCF	57.61
FCF yield	1.7%	Revenue growth YoY	49.2%
Gross margin	52.7%	Operating margin	48.5%
Net margin	39.6%	ROE	6.2%
Debt / equity	0.11	Current ratio	2.84
Net cash / market cap	3.3%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$345.81M

Score	Value
Valuation	50.32
Growth	91.22
Profitability	82.88
Balance sheet	73.89
Cash flow	68.88
Total fundamental	63.60
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	63.60

Why It Screened Well

Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 49.2%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low / Watch
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 15.00
Shares growth YoY: 16.4%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -0.1%

share count grew at least 10% year over year

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
HL	1	yes	$11.57B	60.60	n/a	30.36	4.86	1.2%
AG	2	yes	$10.15B	63.21	20.95	22.52	3.64	1.7%
EXK	3	yes	$2.83B	58.62	10.15	12.57	4.09	-0.7%
SVM	4	yes	$2.82B	59.16	n/a	16.32	2.52	-1.2%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-01	6-K	2026-06-01 14:59:25+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000054/0000771992-26-000054-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000054/form6k2026-06x01timminsupd.htm)
2026-06-01	6-K	2026-06-01 10:59:25+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000054/0000771992-26-000054-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000054/form6k2026-06x01timminsupd.htm)
2026-05-28	6-K	2026-05-27 21:45:34+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000051/0000771992-26-000051-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000051/form6k2026-05x27nrx2025sus.htm)
2026-05-28	6-K	2026-05-27 17:45:34+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000051/0000771992-26-000051-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000051/form6k2026-05x27nrx2025sus.htm)
2026-05-15	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-15 13:40:32+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000086917826000048/0000869178-26-000048-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000086917826000048/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SC 13G/A	2026-05-15 09:40:32+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000086917826000048/0000869178-26-000048-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000086917826000048/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-13	6-K	2026-05-13 16:06:01+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000049/0000771992-26-000049-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000049/form6k2026-05x12investorday.htm)
2026-05-13	6-K	2026-05-13 12:06:01+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000049/0000771992-26-000049-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000049/form6k2026-05x12investorday.htm)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-07 00:06:58+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000047/0000771992-26-000047-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000047/form6ktr2026-lacolorada.htm)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-06 20:06:58+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000047/0000771992-26-000047-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000047/form6ktr2026-lacolorada.htm)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 25.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	40-F	1	2
2	40-F	1	2
3	40-F	1	2
4	40-F	1	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-20 09:15:01+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0951
Confidence: 0.8731
Top event classes: analyst_revision, issuer_release, price_target_summary, legal_regulatory, price_target_consensus
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 7, analyst_forecaster: 6, unknown: 4, issuer_wire_release: 3
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (12 factual/mixed, 8 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.095; top events: analyst_revision, issuer_release, price_target_summary.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
corporate_action	0.6800	0.7410	0.6800	issuer_wire_release	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
capital_return	0.5200	0.7410	0.5200	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.4800	0.5218	0.4800	market_analysis	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.0000	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.0000	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.4538
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.8369	0.3732
analyst_revision	organization	TD Cowen	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	TD Cowen	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	TD Cowen	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	TD Cowen	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	TD Cowen	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356
analyst_revision	organization	TD Cowen	organization-level	0.8000	0.6356

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-20 09:15:01+00:00	factual_event	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Fearnley Asset Management AS Makes New $3.26 Million Investment in Pan American Silver Corp. $PAAS
2026-06-20 07:45:48+00:00	unknown	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	23,674 Shares in Pan American Silver Corp. $PAAS Purchased by Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd
2026-06-19 09:04:57+00:00	unknown	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Alberta Investment Management Corp Sells 25,800 Shares of Pan American Silver Corp. $PAAS
2026-06-16 19:17:04+00:00	unknown	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Pan American Silver (PAAS) Rises As Market Takes a Dip: Key Facts
2026-06-16 13:02:25+00:00	opinion_forecast	zacks.com	positive	0.8500	0.2167	earnings_guidance_analysts, commodities_mining	Pan American Silver (PAAS) Upgraded to Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
2026-06-15 03:05:41.976320+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 83.00
2026-06-10 14:08:29+00:00	unknown	schaeffersresearch.com	negative_risk	0.8000	-0.1500	commodities_mining	Mining Stock Flashing Strong Bullish Signal
2026-06-09 07:45:33.223679+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.2860	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $50.46
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	14.2%
20 sessions	-17.4%
60 sessions	-2.6%
252 sessions	76.1%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/PAAS.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4971	0.1207	0.3822	0.1149	0.0057	0.4971	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4865	0.1770	0.3366	0.1499	0.0119	0.4865	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4577	0.2179	0.3245	0.1332	0.0111	0.4577	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4337	0.2833	0.2829	0.1508	0.0072	0.4337	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4688	0.2564	0.2748	0.1940	0.0036	0.4688	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5204	0.0959	0.3837	0.1367
5	0.5206	0.1630	0.3165	0.2041
10	0.4767	0.2298	0.2935	0.1831
21	0.4754	0.3150	0.2096	0.2657
63	0.5459	0.2559	0.1981	0.3478

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.3833	0.6567	-1	4	40-F	Medium negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, impairment, restatement.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.1857	0.5622	-1	4	40-F	Low negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, liquidity_uncertainty.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.1375	0.6311	-1	4	40-F	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: negative review features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase; structured XBRL features: xbrl_significant_share_count_increase.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	40-F, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
No source-context SEC snippets could be extracted from current cached filing assets

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.5200	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.4790	0.5436	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.6218	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.2823	0.5949	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.1980	0.7241	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.1017	0.5755	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0808	0.5556	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0050	0.5556	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.0000	0.5449	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
2026-02-13	2026-01-27	Sale (Full)	Gilbert Cisneros	U.S. Representative · CA-39	$50,001 - $100,000	765	0.4941	-0.0069	[filing](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033983.pdf)

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	1	27492	0.5126	0.0006	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	5	27479	0.5116	0.0008	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	20	27166	0.5430	0.0059	trainable	True
B of A Securities	analyst_revision	1	23603	0.5055	-0.0001	trainable	True
B of A Securities	analyst_revision	5	23592	0.5245	0.0034	trainable	True
B of A Securities	analyst_revision	20	23210	0.5342	0.0109	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	5	20430	0.5286	0.0038	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	0.0788	0.0418	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-12	5 feature families, 11 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	0.0788	0.0418	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-12	5 feature families, 11 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	0.0788	0.0418	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-12	5 feature families, 11 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	0.6159	0.0745	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-12	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	0.6159	0.0745	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-12	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	0.6159	0.0745	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-12	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0800	0.5600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	facts 2, latest filing 2026-02-18, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0050	0.5556	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	zacks_investment_research / analyst_revision hit 0.5233 samples 18499; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.5203 samples 791
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0808	0.5556	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.1017	0.5755	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	td_cowen / analyst_revision hit 0.5331 samples 8523; td_cowen / analyst_revision hit 0.5331 samples 8523; td_cowen / analyst_revision hit 0.5331 samples 8523
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	0.0042	0.2028	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0712	0.2463	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.1139	0.2740	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1820	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 12.6070, P/B 3.1338, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3457	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 4 peers; company P/E 12.6070, peer P/E 15.5520
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4597	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0174, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2120	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 3.1338, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2486	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.2453, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4826	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 3.1338, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0429
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4295	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.4925, PEG proxy 0.2560
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0759	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0174, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0674	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.0952
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3181	0.6417	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 2/3, quality pct 0.6590, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7188	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 1.1636, indices 5/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0324	0.1000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6944	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0429
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.2539	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5067	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4247	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0174, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6471	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0429
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6603	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0429, EV/EBITDA 28.7861, FCF yield 0.0174
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.5273	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0451, FCF yield 0.0174, share growth 0.1639
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5863	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0834, current ratio 2.8404, net cash/market cap 0.0327
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5087	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance -0.0011, growth 0.4925
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2052	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.5910, ROIC 0.0429, market cap 23486049000
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7709	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0725, yield spread -0.0551, beta 0.2000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7971	0.5333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0551, margin 0.1080, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8609	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 0.1073, base intrinsic/price 1.0129, cash-flow yield 0.0174
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.4998	0.4337	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return 0.0072, p_up 0.4337, value pct 0.5910

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1925	current	eligible	profile_text_taxonomy / source_supported / positive / strength 0.5400
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1925	current	eligible	profile_text_taxonomy / source_supported / positive / strength 0.5400
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1925	current	eligible	profile_text_taxonomy / source_supported / positive / strength 0.5400
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Eligible Signals	Status
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	0.6159	0.1039	1	1	1	current / eligible / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	0.6159	0.1039	1	1	1	current / eligible / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	0.6159	0.1039	1	1	1	current / eligible / source_supported
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	0	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	0	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	0	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	0	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	0	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	0	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	0	current / review / inferred

AEM

Research Thesis

Thesis: AEM has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 58.81 and confidence 0.6607. The positive case is driven by Markov State Blend contributed 0.0586; Fundamental Value contributed 0.0510; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0434. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0136.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Markov State Blend contributed 0.0586; Fundamental Value contributed 0.0510; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0434
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0136
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 10
Aggregate score: 58.81
Prediction score: 58.81
Confidence: 0.6607
Expected return estimate: 0.0083
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Markov State Blend	Material support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1439; confidence 0.4731; expected return 0.0083	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0586	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.2628; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0510	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.5594; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0434	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.2005; confidence 0.5052	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0350	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.3500; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0136	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0625; confidence 0.8664	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0018	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0586	+#.......................	0.4731	current/eligible
fundamental_value	value	0.0510	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0434	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0350	+#.......................	0.5052	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0136	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0018	+#.......................	0.8664	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.5594	0.0434	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.2628	0.0510	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.3500	-0.0136	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1140	0.0139	0.4943	0.0057
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1529	0.0156	0.4861	0.0119
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.1386	0.0113	0.4580	0.0111
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1563	0.0096	0.4320	0.0072
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.2029	0.0083	0.4685	0.0036
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1263	0.0066	0.5160
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.2101	0.0092	0.5229
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1870	0.0065	0.4794
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2600	0.0068	0.4685
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.3373	0.0059	0.5356
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0625	0.0018	0.8664

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0510 (signal 0.2628, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0434 (signal 0.5594, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0156 (signal 0.1529, confidence 0.4861)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0139 (signal 0.1140, confidence 0.4943)
markov_state_blend h10 weighted 0.0113 (signal 0.1386, confidence 0.4580)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6607.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0136 (signal -0.3500, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-19	21	-1.0000	0.8862	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=83
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-19	21	-1.0000	0.8837	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=80
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-19	21	-1.0000	0.7832	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=17
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.6350	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 1.0865, indices 4/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2014-08-11	21	-0.9452	0.5601	stale/review; cutoff 2014-08-11	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-19	21	-0.7646	0.6819	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=8
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-03-19	21	-0.6610	0.6889	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=9
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4316	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6573	0.5778	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 2/2, quality pct 0.8286, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2714	0.5956	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, liquidity_uncertainty, risk_factor_language.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2278	0.7089	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2050	0.6456	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-03-19	21	-0.1747	0.6740	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=7
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1200	0.7600	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	facts 7, latest filing 2026-03-19, flags low_cash_to_liabilities
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1500	0.5500	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Gold
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0500	0.5122	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3, F-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0050	0.5978	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: F-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0740	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.0000
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5600	0.7410	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4034	0.6429	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=6
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2056	0.7331	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=15
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2575	0.5720	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=12
News / Forecast	news_cybersecurity_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.7600	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2314	0.5352	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=39
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1200	0.6218	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-01	795	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-22 09:05:13.666673+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:10.453322+00:00	697	29 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Agnico Eagle Mines Limited
Classification: Mining / Critical Materials / Large Cap Quality
Scoring model: Mining
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$174.18	Market cap	$87.26B
P/E	14.97	P/S	24.77
P/B	3.86	P/FCF	100.00
FCF yield	0.7%	Revenue growth YoY	66.1%
Gross margin	66.4%	Operating margin	62.4%
Net margin	41.4%	ROE	6.5%
Debt / equity	0.01	Current ratio	3.15
Net cash / market cap	3.2%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$437.55M

Score	Value
Valuation	40.64
Growth	93.43
Profitability	87.55
Balance sheet	80.72
Cash flow	50.17
Total fundamental	63.14
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	63.14

Why It Screened Well

Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 66.1%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: -0.4%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.9%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -0.1%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
B	1	yes	$69.27B	65.51	10.81	13.20	2.49	2.4%
NEM	2	yes	$114.76B	64.94	9.00	16.35	3.36	2.7%
WPM	3	yes	$58.15B	63.17	25.91	50.00	6.41	1.2%
FNV	4	yes	$43.68B	61.42	25.41	50.00	5.86	0.1%
KGC	5	yes	$34.71B	65.35	11.01	15.42	4.01	2.3%
AGI	6	yes	$16.33B	59.19	24.71	31.70	4.04	0.3%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-01	SD	2026-06-01 18:32:06+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926068824/0001104659-26-068824-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926068824/aem-20260601xsd.htm)
2026-06-01	SD	2026-06-01 14:32:06+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926068824/0001104659-26-068824-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926068824/aem-20260601xsd.htm)
2026-05-20	6-K	2026-05-20 15:39:59+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926064245/0001104659-26-064245-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926064245/tm2615210d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-20	6-K	2026-05-20 11:39:59+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926064245/0001104659-26-064245-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926064245/tm2615210d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-19	6-K	2026-05-19 19:38:32+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926063785/0001104659-26-063785-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926063785/tm2615110d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-19	6-K	2026-05-19 15:38:32+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926063785/0001104659-26-063785-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926063785/tm2615110d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-01	6-K	2026-05-01 20:12:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926054134/0001104659-26-054134-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926054134/tm2612722d3_6k.htm)
2026-05-01	6-K	2026-05-01 16:12:04+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926054134/0001104659-26-054134-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926054134/tm2612722d3_ex99-1.htm)
2026-04-30	6-K	2026-04-30 21:00:10+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926053113/0001104659-26-053113-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926053113/tm2612722d1_6k.htm)
2026-04-30	6-K	2026-04-30 17:00:10+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926053113/0001104659-26-053113-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926053113/tm2612722d2_ex99-1.htm)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 35.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Control	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	6-K	0	0	0
2	6-K	0	0	0
3	6-K	0	0	0
4	40-F	1	1	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-22 09:05:13.666673+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0625
Confidence: 0.8664
Top event classes: price_target_summary, corporate_action, price_target_consensus, analyst_revision, legal_regulatory
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 9, analyst_forecaster: 5, unknown: 5, issuer_wire_release: 1
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (15 factual/mixed, 5 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.062; top events: price_target_summary, corporate_action, price_target_consensus.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
cybersecurity	-0.7600	0.5218	0.7600	market_analysis	Cybersecurity, breach, ransomware, or vulnerability event
corporate_action	0.7400	0.5468	0.7400	market_analysis	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7410	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7410	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7410	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
corporate_action	0.6800	0.7410	0.6800	issuer_wire_release	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
corporate_action	0.6800	0.7410	0.6800	issuer_wire_release	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
corporate_action	0.6800	0.5218	0.6800	market_analysis	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.4538
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.4413
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.3868
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.9734	0.3821
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.8784	0.3735
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	0.5700	0.5468
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	0.5700	0.5468
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5386	0.5612

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-22 09:05:13.666673+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 310.00
2026-06-20 19:19:26.652288+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.3984	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-20 17:08:59+00:00	unknown	thelincolnianonline	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Promising Gold Stocks To Add to Your Watchlist – June 20th
2026-06-20 08:39:35+00:00	factual_event	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd Invests $953,000 in Agnico Eagle Mines Limited $AEM
2026-06-20 08:03:33+00:00	factual_event	thelincolnianonline	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Employees Provident Fund Board Purchases Shares of 1,079,713 Agnico Eagle Mines Limited $AEM
2026-06-20 08:03:18+00:00	factual_event	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Employees Provident Fund Board Buys Shares of 1,079,713 Agnico Eagle Mines Limited $AEM
2026-06-20 07:31:08+00:00	unknown	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Auto Owners Insurance Co Grows Position in Agnico Eagle Mines Limited $AEM
2026-06-19 10:01:10+00:00	unknown	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $172.99
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	13.5%
20 sessions	-10.2%
60 sessions	-11.8%
252 sessions	45.5%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/AEM.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4943	0.1254	0.3803	0.1140	0.0057	0.4943	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4861	0.1808	0.3331	0.1529	0.0119	0.4861	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4580	0.2225	0.3194	0.1386	0.0111	0.4580	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4320	0.2923	0.2757	0.1563	0.0072	0.4320	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4685	0.2658	0.2656	0.2029	0.0036	0.4685	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5160	0.0942	0.3897	0.1263
5	0.5229	0.1643	0.3128	0.2101
10	0.4794	0.2282	0.2924	0.1870
21	0.4685	0.3231	0.2084	0.2600
63	0.5356	0.2662	0.1983	0.3373

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.2714	0.5956	-1	4	40-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, liquidity_uncertainty, risk_factor_language.
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.2278	0.7089	-1	4	20-F, 40-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.2050	0.6456	-1	4	40-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0500	0.5122	0	4	40-F, 424B3, 6-K, F-3	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3, F-3.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.0050	0.5978	0	4	20-F, 40-F, 6-K, F-3	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: F-3.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	40-F, 6-K, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K, F-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: F-4.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
40-F	2026-03-19	near matched term	compensation	executive compensation	compensation-context	DED COMPENSATION The Company has adopted a compensation recovery policy, most recently amended effective July 26, 2023 (referred to as the “Executive Compensation Clawback Policy”) as required by NYSE listing standard...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/5a/5abdcbf471177978b131fb4bec90d08087b1d7b91e26e37c0f3081421bbba15e.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2809/000110465926032153/aem-20251231x40f.htm; accession 0001104659-26-032153; cached 2026-06-02 18:10:30.985255+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_cybersecurity_event	event	1	-0.7600	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_product_contract_event	event	1	0.5600	0.7410	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.4034	0.6429	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.2575	0.5720	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.2314	0.5352	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.2056	0.7331	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.1373	0.5379	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	0.1200	0.6218	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0584	0.5689	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0142	0.5379	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_financing_liquidity_event	event	1	0.0000	0.7410	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3479	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_macro_sector_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3479	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3383	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	1	43084	0.5173	0.0011	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	5	43025	0.5267	0.0028	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	20	42580	0.5383	0.0089	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	1	35619	0.5107	0.0009	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	5	35593	0.5263	0.0027	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	20	35218	0.5439	0.0117	trainable	True
JP Morgan	analyst_revision	1	31260	0.5009	0.0006	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0560	0.7600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 2, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1200	0.7600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-19	facts 7, latest filing 2026-03-19, flags low_cash_to_liabilities
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0142	0.5379	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	seeking_alpha / analyst_revision hit 0.5259 samples 7318; seeking_alpha / analyst_revision hit 0.5259 samples 7318; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.1373	0.5379	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0584	0.5689	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	-0.0186	0.2121	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0500	0.2325	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.0767	0.2499	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0439	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 14.9721, P/B 3.8644, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0226	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 14.9721, peer P/E 17.8088
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1833	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0072, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2876	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 3.8644, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2225	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.3764, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5301	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 3.8644, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0505
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3521	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.6609, PEG proxy 0.2265
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0120	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0072, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0740	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.0000
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6573	0.5778	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 2/2, quality pct 0.8286, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.6350	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 1.0865, indices 4/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0324	0.1000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7760	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0505
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.2353	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4316	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4689	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0072, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7563	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0505
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5874	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0505, EV/EBITDA 32.9632, FCF yield 0.0072
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7468	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0482, FCF yield 0.0072, share growth -0.0041
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.7494	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0091, current ratio 3.1481, net cash/market cap 0.0321
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.1714	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0085, issuance -0.0014, growth 0.6609
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3220	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.5219, ROIC 0.0505, market cap 87262345885
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7274	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield 0.0098, events 12m 4, years 6
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8726	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-11	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield 0.0776, EPS growth 0.0557, analysts 11
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7727	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0713, yield spread -0.0641, beta 0.2000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2748	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0641, margin -0.0421, terminal growth 0.0082
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0717	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin -0.8480, base intrinsic/price 0.1405, cash-flow yield 0.0072
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.4245	0.4320	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return 0.0072, p_up 0.4320, value pct 0.5219

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0420	0.0359	5	5	current / review / inferred

DMLP

Research Thesis

Thesis: DMLP has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 58.78 and confidence 0.6364. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0718; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0537; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0508. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0272; News Event Intelligence contributed -0.0002.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0718; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0537; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0508
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0272; News Event Intelligence contributed -0.0002
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 11
Aggregate score: 58.78
Prediction score: 58.78
Confidence: 0.6364
Expected return estimate: 0.0092
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.3700; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0718	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Material support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1317; confidence 0.4292; expected return 0.0092	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0537	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6550; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0508	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.7000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0272	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1236; confidence 0.4202	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0216	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.1690; confidence 0.3211	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0051	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal -0.0079; confidence 0.8756	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution -0.0002	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0718	+##......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0537	+#.......................	0.4292	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0508	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0272	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0216	+#.......................	0.4202	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0051	+#.......................	0.3211	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	-0.0002	-#.......................	0.8756	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6550	0.0508	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.3700	0.0718	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.7000	-0.0272	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.1733	0.0021	0.3222
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.1733	0.0017	0.3222
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.1573	0.0013	0.3178
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.0836	0.0102	0.4493	0.0013
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1330	0.0136	0.4345	0.0078
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.1315	0.0107	0.4174	0.0071
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1734	0.0106	0.3991	0.0121
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.2105	0.0086	0.4248	0.0363
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.0816	0.0043	0.4470
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1116	0.0049	0.4078
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1010	0.0035	0.3857
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.1763	0.0046	0.4360
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2456	0.0043	0.4162
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	-0.0079	-0.0002	0.8756

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0718 (signal 0.3700, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0508 (signal 0.6550, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0136 (signal 0.1330, confidence 0.4345)
markov_state_blend h10 weighted 0.0107 (signal 0.1315, confidence 0.4174)
markov_state_blend h21 weighted 0.0106 (signal 0.1734, confidence 0.3991)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6364.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0272 (signal -0.7000, confidence 0.8500)
news_event_intelligence h1 weighted -0.0002 (signal -0.0079, confidence 0.8756)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	0.7800	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z 6.7075, factors 3/5, suppressed False
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	0.7250	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M -5.0632, indices 4/8, quality pct 1.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6438	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.7050	0.7367	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=High negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: negative review features: bankruptcy, default_or_covenant, delisting, liquidity_warning; positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: 8-K, S-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4641	0.7906	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis product_service, segments 8, HHI 0.4451, loss ratio 0.0000
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3778	0.7767	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, material_weakness, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.3883	0.7208	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Energy; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4071	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3650	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-06	21	-0.4181	0.5601	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-06	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-06	21	-0.3836	0.4585	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-06	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=14
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2500	0.6011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-24	21	-0.3977	0.3702	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-24	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=3
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-24	21	-0.3022	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-24	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1358	0.9611	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 4/8, quality pct 0.5679, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-06	21	-0.2375	0.5478	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-06	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=10
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2000	0.6467	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: negative review features: proxy_contest, super_voting; positive review features: beneficial_owner_increase; recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-05-06	21	-0.1120	0.5876	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-06	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0500	0.5122	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3, S-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4, 5.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: S-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.6000	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-06	facts 5, latest filing 2026-05-06, flags none
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5600	0.4940	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5400	0.5107	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_operational_labor_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.5800	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1750	0.5218	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=4
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.3600	0.2073	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.3479	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_financing_liquidity_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-05	1	0.0000	0.1627	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-05	event_count=1

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-02	962	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Medium.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	11	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-19 20:38:29+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-19 20:38:29+00:00	47	4 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	missing	n/a	0	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	1 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Dorchester Minerals, L.P.
Classification: Energy / Energy Candidate
Scoring model: Energy
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$27.61	Market cap	$1.33B
P/E	11.22	P/S	22.21
P/B	4.33	P/FCF	54.69
FCF yield	1.8%	Revenue growth YoY	36.4%
Gross margin	56.7%	Operating margin	49.5%
Net margin	49.5%	ROE	9.7%
Debt / equity	0.00	Current ratio	10.00
Net cash / market cap	2.1%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$4.96M

Score	Value
Valuation	49.58
Growth	87.62
Profitability	86.61
Balance sheet	86.37
Cash flow	70.40
Total fundamental	70.50
Basic risk flags	20.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	68.50

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 11.22.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 36.4%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

Commodity exposure - review price sensitivity

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: 1.9%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: 0.0%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
KRP	1	yes	$1.50B	51.49	51.23	16.00	1.98	3.7%
DEC	2	yes	$1.08B	69.96	0.70	1.21	1.07	10.5%
VET	3	yes	$1.81B	45.14	n/a	5.99	1.43	3.2%
HPK	4	yes	$939.47M	24.78	n/a	4.00	0.59	-7.7%
NEXT	5	yes	$2.22B	30.63	n/a	n/a	n/a	-50.0%
OBE	6	yes	$782.11M	29.37	n/a	5.86	0.65	-4.7%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-02	4	2026-06-02 21:04:47+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926019186/0001437749-26-019186-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926019186/xslF345X06/rdgdoc.xml)
2026-06-02	4	2026-06-02 17:04:47+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926019186/0001437749-26-019186-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926019186/xslF345X06/rdgdoc.xml)
2026-05-22	4	2026-05-22 20:10:31+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926018250/0001437749-26-018250-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926018250/xslF345X06/rdgdoc.xml)
2026-05-22	4	2026-05-22 16:10:31+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926018250/0001437749-26-018250-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926018250/xslF345X06/rdgdoc.xml)
2026-05-15	8-K	2026-05-15 20:07:36+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926017379/0001437749-26-017379-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926017379/dmlp20260515_8k.htm)
2026-05-15	8-K	2026-05-15 16:07:36+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926017379/0001437749-26-017379-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926017379/dmlp20260515_8k.htm)
2026-05-14	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-14 20:10:30+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000091957426003085/0000919574-26-003085-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000091957426003085/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-14	SC 13G/A	2026-05-14 16:10:30+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000091957426003085/0000919574-26-003085-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000091957426003085/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-12	8-K	2026-05-12 20:34:16+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926016449/0001437749-26-016449-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926016449/dmlp20260512_8k.htm)
2026-05-12	4	2026-05-12 18:51:55+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926016382/0001437749-26-016382-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926016382/xslF345X06/rdgdoc.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 70.00
Governance review label: Medium
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (7 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (7 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Control	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	8-K	0	0	0	0
2	10-Q	1	0	0	2
3	DEF 14A	4	1	0	0
4	10-K	2	1	2	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 11
Latest article: 2026-06-19 20:38:29+00:00
Weighted event score: -0.0079
Confidence: 0.8756
Top event classes: legal_regulatory, product_contract_partnership, issuer_release, corporate_action, market_opinion
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 9, issuer_wire_release: 2
Summary: 11 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (9 factual/mixed, 2 forecast/opinion); weighted event score -0.008; top events: legal_regulatory, product_contract_partnership, issuer_release.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
legal_regulatory	-0.7000	0.5218	0.7000	market_analysis	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
labor_restructuring	-0.5800	0.5218	0.5800	market_analysis	Restructuring, layoffs, cost actions, or operational disruption
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.7410	0.5600	issuer_wire_release	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.7410	0.5600	issuer_wire_release	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
legal_regulatory	0.0000	0.5218	0.7000	market_analysis	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
corporate_action	0.0000	0.5218	0.6800	market_analysis	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
market_opinion	individual	Seeking Alpha	asian value investor	0.3600	0.6218
analyst_revision	organization	Defense World	organization-level	0.0000	0.5218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-19 20:38:29+00:00	opinion_forecast	seekingalpha	positive	0.3500	0.1833	none	Dorchester Minerals: Overselling Pressures Increased, Buying Opportunities Widened
2026-06-19 12:30:00+00:00	factual_event	seekingalpha	neutral_watch	0.8500	-0.0250	oil_energy_prices	Dorchester Minerals: I Am Swimming In Royalties
2026-05-11 13:02:25+00:00	factual_event	seekingalpha.com	negative_risk	0.8000	-0.3583	regulation_antitrust_legal, commodities_mining	Dorchester Minerals: The Distribution Looks Worse Than It Is
2026-05-06 16:40:00+00:00	factual_event	globenewswire.com	positive	0.3500	0.3208	none	Dorchester Minerals, L.P. Announces First Quarter Results
2026-04-23 16:15:00+00:00	factual_event	globenewswire.com	positive	0.3500	0.3208	none	Dorchester Minerals, L.P. Announces Its First Quarter Distribution
2026-04-21 04:46:50+00:00	factual_event	defenseworld.net	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Dorchester Minerals, L.P. $DMLP Shares Bought by GraniteShares Advisors LLC
2026-04-15 04:33:56+00:00	factual_event	defenseworld.net	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Freestone Capital Holdings LLC Has $1.92 Million Position in Dorchester Minerals, L.P. $DMLP
2026-04-14 04:13:37+00:00	opinion_forecast	defenseworld.net	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Dorchester Minerals (NASDAQ:DMLP) Share Price Passes Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average – Here’s Why

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $25.83
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	-5.8%
20 sessions	-5.1%
60 sessions	-5.3%
252 sessions	-8.2%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/DMLP.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4493	0.1850	0.3657	0.0836	0.0013	0.4493	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4345	0.2641	0.3014	0.1330	0.0078	0.4345	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4174	0.2966	0.2860	0.1315	0.0071	0.4174	pass	n/a
21	U	0.3991	0.3752	0.2257	0.1734	0.0121	0.3991	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4248	0.3609	0.2143	0.2105	0.0363	0.4248	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.4470	0.1876	0.3654	0.0816
5	0.4078	0.2960	0.2962	0.1116
10	0.3857	0.3295	0.2847	0.1010
21	0.3701	0.4360	0.1938	0.1763
63	0.4162	0.4132	0.1706	0.2456

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.7050	0.7367	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A, S-3	High negative evidence: SEC Distress And Financing: negative review features: bankruptcy, default_or_covenant, delisting, liquidity_warning; positive review features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: 8-K, S-3.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.4071	0.6567	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Medium negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.3778	0.7767	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Medium negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: impairment, material_weakness, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.3650	0.6567	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Medium negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	-0.2500	0.6011	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Low negative evidence: SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	-0.2000	0.6467	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A, SC 13D	Low negative evidence: SEC Ownership And Control: negative review features: proxy_contest, super_voting; positive review features: beneficial_owner_increase; recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0500	0.5122	0	4	10-K, 10-Q, 424B3, 8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 424B3, S-3.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	10-K, 10-Q, 3, 4, 5	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4, 5.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, 8-K/A, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A, S-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: S-4.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
DEF 14A	2026-04-02	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS In 2025, the Partnership and our wholly-owned subsidiaries reimbursed...	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	December 31, 2025 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. February 24, 2026 Allen D. Lassiter A. Troy Sturrock Sarah N. Wariner CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS In 2025, the Partnership and ou...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/61/6191a1e352b1e8160dce55cca0856ab6992ac5a99d20055db1dac6d975160886.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926011129/dmlp20260313_def14a.htm; accession 0001437749-26-011129; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:00.352914+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
DEF 14A	2026-04-02	Transactions with Related Persons Whenever any potential conflict of interest exists or arises between our general pa...	related_party	transactions with related	section-supported	suant to the Administrative Service Agreement were not also made pursuant to the Partnership Agreement. Review, Approval or Ratification of Transactions with Related Persons Whenever any potential conflict of interest...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/61/6191a1e352b1e8160dce55cca0856ab6992ac5a99d20055db1dac6d975160886.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926011129/dmlp20260313_def14a.htm; accession 0001437749-26-011129; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:00.352914+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-24	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 34 ITEM 14	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	XECUTIVE COMPENSATION 34 ITEM 12. SECURITY OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT AND RELATED UNITHOLDER MATTERS 34 ITEM 13. CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 34...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/de/de79ecd5f0f7121b56d29c30f81401a417750591ac902c5318d47b8877ba8fb5.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926005376/dmlp20251231_10k.htm; accession 0001437749-26-005376; cached 2026-06-02 20:26:16.776980+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
DEF 14A	2026-04-02	near matched term	related_party	related party	term-context	s Minerals, L.L.P., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Partnership. No management fees or any other type of compensation is paid by or to any related party, other than compensation reported pursuant to Item 402 of Regul...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/61/6191a1e352b1e8160dce55cca0856ab6992ac5a99d20055db1dac6d975160886.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926011129/dmlp20260313_def14a.htm; accession 0001437749-26-011129; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:00.352914+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-24	near matched term	related_party	related party	term-context	2024 ASSETS Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 41,937 $ 42,508 Accounts receivable 13,968 19,241 Net profits interest receivable - related party 2,513 5,544 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 526 539 T...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/de/de79ecd5f0f7121b56d29c30f81401a417750591ac902c5318d47b8877ba8fb5.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926005376/dmlp20251231_10k.htm; accession 0001437749-26-005376; cached 2026-06-02 20:26:16.776980+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-24	near matched term	accounting_high_risk	material weakness	term-context	ll material respects. Our audit included obtaining an understanding of internal control over financial reporting, assessing the risk that a material weakness exists, testing and evaluating the design and operating eff...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/de/de79ecd5f0f7121b56d29c30f81401a417750591ac902c5318d47b8877ba8fb5.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926005376/dmlp20251231_10k.htm; accession 0001437749-26-005376; cached 2026-06-02 20:26:16.776980+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-Q	2026-05-06	near matched term	related_party	related party	term-context	2025 ASSETS Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 28,157 $ 41,937 Accounts receivable 26,849 13,968 Net profits interest receivable - related party 19,042 2,513 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 393 526...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e8/e85d417fbf1a01be6ec482d42269100c25c3380a143d85470652ce803c16f037.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172358/000143774926015255/dmlp20260331_10q.htm; accession 0001437749-26-015255; cached 2026-06-02 18:11:25.228782+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_operational_labor_event	event	1	-0.5800	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_product_contract_event	event	1	0.5600	0.4940	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.5400	0.5107	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	0.3600	0.2073	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	-0.1750	0.5218	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3479	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
2026-04-15	2026-03-13	Purchase	August Lee Pfluger II	U.S. Representative · TX-11	$15,001 - $50,000	7	0.5714	-0.0108	[filing](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034348.pdf)

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	1	7318	0.5259	0.0021	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	5	7259	0.5255	0.0037	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	20	6919	0.5372	0.0100	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	market_opinion	1	5633	0.5209	0.0009	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	market_opinion	5	5612	0.5198	0.0031	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	market_opinion	20	5478	0.5338	0.0101	trainable	True
Defense World	analyst_revision	20	5175	0.5024	0.0089	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	0.0490	0.0396	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	7 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	0.0490	0.0396	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	7 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	0.0490	0.0396	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	7 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: eia_energy_state, fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.2651	0.0414	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729); Mining Labor Costs (has_cost_driver, score -0.1070)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.2651	0.0414	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729); Mining Labor Costs (has_cost_driver, score -0.1070)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.2651	0.0414	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729); Mining Labor Costs (has_cost_driver, score -0.1070)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.2729	0.0085	enabled=False; unknown/review; cutoff 2026-01-01	Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.2729	0.0085	enabled=False; unknown/review; cutoff 2026-01-01	Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.2729	0.0085	enabled=False; unknown/review; cutoff 2026-01-01	Pipeline Transport Revenue (has_demand_driver, score -0.2729)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	0.1146	0.1188	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159); Gasoline (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.4057); Coal (sensitive_to_price_of, score -0.4966)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	0.1146	0.1188	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159); Gasoline (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.4057); Coal (sensitive_to_price_of, score -0.4966)
energy_commodity_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	0.1146	0.1188	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	Refinery activity (has_demand_driver, score 0.6159); Gasoline (sensitive_to_price_of, score 0.4057); Coal (sensitive_to_price_of, score -0.4966)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	0.0331	0.7000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Petroleum and coal products requirement 2.2722771; Pipeline transportation requirement 1.573605; Support activities for mining requirement 1.6230144
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.2000	0.1800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 0, auto-linked 0, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.6000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-05-06	facts 5, latest filing 2026-05-06, flags none
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	0.0233	0.2151	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0677	0.2440	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.1103	0.2717	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1686	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 11.2206, P/B 4.3323, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.1080	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 11.2206, peer P/E 25.9655
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4869	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0183, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3152	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 4.3323, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3400	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.3197, NCAV/market cap 0.0410, SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6133	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 4.3323, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0980
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4103	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.3640, PEG proxy 0.3083
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1154	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0183, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4641	0.7906	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis product_service, segments 8, HHI 0.4451, loss ratio 0.0000
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1358	0.9611	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 4/8, quality pct 0.5679, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z 6.7075, factors 3/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	0.7250	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M -5.0632, indices 4/8, quality pct 1.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0648	0.1200	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 3, latest 2025-10-14, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7852	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0980
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.2223	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 20.0000, flags Commodity exposure - review price sensitivity
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6438	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5685	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0183, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7875	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0980
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7863	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0980, EV/EBITDA 25.5634, FCF yield 0.0183
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7016	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0966, FCF yield 0.0183, share growth 0.0193
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.8564	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0024, current ratio 10.0000, net cash/market cap 0.0206
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6360	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance 0.0000, growth 0.3640
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4478	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.5843, ROIC 0.0980, market cap 1332332975
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8684	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0692, yield spread -0.0509, beta 0.2000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7955	0.5333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0509, margin 0.0801, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8781	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 0.2406, base intrinsic/price 1.1905, cash-flow yield 0.0183
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.3993	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score -0.3993, roots NG, CL
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0497	0.6910	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-15	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-15, score -0.0497, commodities commodity:coal, commodity:propane, commodity:gasoline, commodity:crude_oil
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.5172	0.3991	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return 0.0121, p_up 0.3991, value pct 0.5843

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1260	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4590
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1260	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4590
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Refinery activity	0.6159	0.1260	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.4590
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0353	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4200
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0353	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4200
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0353	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4200
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Gasoline	0.4057	0.0827	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Gasoline	0.4057	0.0827	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Gasoline	0.4057	0.0827	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4760
2026-06-22	1	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Coal	-0.4966	0.0568	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4250
2026-06-22	5	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Coal	-0.4966	0.0568	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4250
2026-06-22	20	eia_energy_state	sensitive_to_price_of	commodity:Coal	-0.4966	0.0568	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.4250

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	0.6159	0.0524	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	0.6159	0.0524	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	0.6159	0.0524	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0123	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0123	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0123	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	1	commodity	0.0384	0.1298	2	2	current / review / source_supported
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	5	commodity	0.0384	0.1298	2	2	current / review / source_supported
Sensitive To Price Of / Commodity / eia_energy_state	2026-06-22	20	commodity	0.0384	0.1298	2	2	current / review / source_supported
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.2729	0.0110	1	1	unknown / review / inferred

IAG

Research Thesis

Thesis: IAG has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 58.68 and confidence 0.6729. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0640; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0526; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0398. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0097; Government Trade Activity contributed -0.0084.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0640; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0526; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0398
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0097; Government Trade Activity contributed -0.0084
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 12
Aggregate score: 58.68
Prediction score: 58.68
Confidence: 0.6729
Expected return estimate: -0.0047
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.3298; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0640	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6772; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0526	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.0977; confidence 0.4707; expected return -0.0047	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0398	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1789; confidence 0.5224	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0312	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.2500; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0097	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal -0.2809; confidence 0.3743	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution -0.0084	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.1418; confidence 0.8786	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0041	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0640	+##......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0526	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0398	+#.......................	0.4707	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0312	+#.......................	0.5224	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0097	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	-0.0084	-#.......................	0.3743	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0041	+#.......................	0.8786	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6772	0.0526	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.3298	0.0640	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.2500	-0.0097	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	-0.2644	-0.0032	0.3720
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	-0.2445	-0.0024	0.3664
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	-0.3510	-0.0028	0.3879
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1041	0.0127	0.4925	0.0089
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1091	0.0111	0.4819	0.0065
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0697	0.0057	0.4515	-0.0016
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.0979	0.0060	0.4441	-0.0185
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1055	0.0043	0.4555	-0.0586
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1593	0.0083	0.5371
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1988	0.0087	0.5430
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1309	0.0046	0.4845
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2093	0.0055	0.5025
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.2384	0.0042	0.5329
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.1418	0.0041	0.8786

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0640 (signal 0.3298, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0526 (signal 0.6772, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0127 (signal 0.1041, confidence 0.4925)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0111 (signal 0.1091, confidence 0.4819)
neural_market_horizon h5 weighted 0.0087 (signal 0.1988, confidence 0.5430)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6729.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0097 (signal -0.2500, confidence 0.8500)
government_trade_activity h1 weighted -0.0032 (signal -0.2644, confidence 0.3720)
government_trade_activity h21 weighted -0.0028 (signal -0.3510, confidence 0.3879)
government_trade_activity h5 weighted -0.0024 (signal -0.2445, confidence 0.3664)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-18	21	-1.0000	0.9100	stale/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=166
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-18	21	-1.0000	0.9100	stale/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=164
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-18	21	-1.0000	0.8554	stale/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=52
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-18	21	-1.0000	0.8276	stale/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=34
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7188	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 1.8598, indices 5/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6751	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.7154	0.6417	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 3/3, quality pct 0.8577, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-18	21	-0.8595	0.5326	stale/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-18	21	-0.4540	0.4764	stale/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=12
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1556	0.5678	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: restatement.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-02-18	21	-0.1262	0.5826	stale/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=6
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	facts 2, latest filing 2026-02-18, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0571	0.5122	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.0100	0.5500	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Gold
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0740	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.0000
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.3541	0.7093	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=10
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4620	0.5043	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=8
News / Forecast	news_financing_liquidity_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.7400	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.7000	0.2374	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.6200	0.2457	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.4145	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2950	0.4831	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-17	1022	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-17 17:00:00+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:10.821401+00:00	321	22 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	1 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: IAMGOLD Corporation
Classification: Mining / Critical Materials / Mining / Critical Materials Candidate
Scoring model: Mining
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$17.30	Market cap	$10.19B
P/E	7.28	P/S	10.74
P/B	2.55	P/FCF	24.00
FCF yield	4.2%	Revenue growth YoY	115.9%
Gross margin	55.4%	Operating margin	52.9%
Net margin	36.9%	ROE	8.8%
Debt / equity	0.15	Current ratio	1.89
Net cash / market cap	-1.0%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$122.38M

Score	Value
Valuation	68.39
Growth	96.44
Profitability	85.26
Balance sheet	65.43
Cash flow	88.32
Total fundamental	66.49
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	66.49

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 7.28.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 115.9%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: 2.5%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.2%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -2.4%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
EQX	1	yes	$10.00B	61.28	9.19	13.23	1.86	0.3%
CDE	2	yes	$12.12B	66.55	12.08	13.93	1.15	2.2%
RGLD	3	yes	$15.15B	62.73	19.17	45.96	2.91	1.4%
EGO	4	yes	$6.57B	56.28	12.44	12.75	1.57	-2.6%
AGI	5	yes	$16.33B	59.19	24.71	31.70	4.04	0.3%
SSRM	6	yes	$6.17B	66.42	n/a	10.39	1.66	2.9%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-17	6-K	2026-06-17 21:01:03+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326003244/0001062993-26-003244-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326003244/form6k.htm)
2026-06-17	6-K	2026-06-17 17:01:03+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326003244/0001062993-26-003244-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326003244/form6k.htm)
2026-06-01	6-K	2026-06-01 11:04:00+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002941/0001062993-26-002941-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002941/form6k.htm)
2026-06-01	6-K	2026-06-01 07:04:00+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002941/0001062993-26-002941-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002941/form6k.htm)
2026-05-15	SD	2026-05-15 20:12:50+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000162828026035570/0001628280-26-035570-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000162828026035570/formsdcover-usestmafilingx.htm)
2026-05-15	SD	2026-05-15 16:12:50+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000162828026035570/0001628280-26-035570-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000162828026035570/formsdcover-usestmafilingx.htm)
2026-05-15	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-15 13:39:16+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000086917826000043/0000869178-26-000043-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000086917826000043/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SC 13G/A	2026-05-15 09:39:16+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000086917826000043/0000869178-26-000043-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/869178/000086917826000043/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-06 00:13:46+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002334/0001062993-26-002334-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002334/form6k.htm)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-05 21:40:45+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002327/0001062993-26-002327-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203464/000106299326002327/form6k.htm)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 25.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	40-F	1	2
2	40-F	1	2
3	40-F	1	2
4	40-F	1	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-17 17:00:00+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.1418
Confidence: 0.8786
Top event classes: issuer_release, analyst_revision, market_opinion, earnings_result, capital_return
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 8, issuer_wire_release: 7, analyst_forecaster: 4, video_or_social_distribution: 1
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (14 factual/mixed, 6 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.142; top events: issuer_release, analyst_revision, market_opinion.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
financing_liquidity	0.7400	0.7410	0.7400	issuer_wire_release	Financing, liquidity, restructuring, or solvency event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7122	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
product_contract_partnership	0.6200	0.7372	0.6200	issuer_wire_release	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
capital_return	0.5800	0.7372	0.5800	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7372	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7372	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7372	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.3983
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6042	0.4772
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6042	0.4772
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6042	0.4772
analyst_revision	organization	Defense World	organization-level	0.5700	0.5468
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.4523	0.5163
market_opinion	organization	GuruFocus	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	GuruFocus	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-17 17:00:00+00:00	factual_event	newsfilecorp.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.1525	none	IAMGOLD Announces Increase and Extension of Revolving Credit Facility
2026-06-15 03:06:13.239970+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.4523	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 20.43
2026-06-13 07:25:09.415882+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.2500	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-09 07:47:49.413169+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 29.50
2026-06-07 17:14:32+00:00	unknown	youtube.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	IAG CEO on Asia demand, Consolidation & Fuel Prices
2026-06-03 10:21:11+00:00	factual_event	zacks.com	positive	0.8000	0.3367	commodities_mining	IAMGOLD Expands Cote Gold Resource Base With Updated Estimate
2026-06-01 12:00:10+00:00	unknown	proactiveinvestors.com	positive	0.8000	0.2167	commodities_mining	IAMGOLD boosts Côté Gold M&I resource ahead of expansion study
2026-06-01 07:00:00+00:00	factual_event	newsfilecorp.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.1533	commodities_mining	IAMGOLD Announces Consolidated Mineral Resource Estimate for Côté Gold

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $17.58
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	18.5%
20 sessions	-4.8%
60 sessions	-1.7%
252 sessions	140.5%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/IAG.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4925	0.1190	0.3884	0.1041	0.0089	0.4925	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4819	0.1452	0.3728	0.1091	0.0065	0.4819	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4515	0.1667	0.3818	0.0697	-0.0016	0.4515	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4441	0.2097	0.3462	0.0979	-0.0185	0.4441	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4555	0.1944	0.3500	0.1055	-0.0586	0.4555	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5371	0.0852	0.3778	0.1593
5	0.5430	0.1127	0.3442	0.1988
10	0.4845	0.1619	0.3536	0.1309
21	0.5025	0.2043	0.2932	0.2093
63	0.5329	0.1726	0.2945	0.2384

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.1556	0.5678	-1	4	40-F	Low negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: restatement.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.0571	0.5122	-1	4	40-F	Low negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	40-F, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	4, 40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 4.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	40-F	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
No source-context SEC snippets could be extracted from current cached filing assets

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_financing_liquidity_event	event	1	0.7400	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.7000	0.2374	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_product_contract_event	event	1	0.6200	0.2457	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.4620	0.5043	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.4145	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.3541	0.7093	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.2950	0.4831	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.1364	0.5285	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.1067	0.5489	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0234	0.5285	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3479	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
2026-05-18	2026-05-05	Sale (Full)	Brian Babin	U.S. Representative · TX-36	$1,001 - $15,000	10	0.9000	0.0800	[filing](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034522.pdf)

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	1	27492	0.5126	0.0006	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	5	27479	0.5116	0.0008	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	20	27166	0.5430	0.0059	trainable	True
B of A Securities	analyst_revision	1	23603	0.5055	-0.0001	trainable	True
B of A Securities	analyst_revision	5	23592	0.5245	0.0034	trainable	True
B of A Securities	analyst_revision	20	23210	0.5342	0.0109	trainable	True
Raymond James	analyst_revision	5	20430	0.5286	0.0038	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1019	0.0229	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0993	0.0736	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.0520	0.7600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 1, auto-linked 1, active relationships 11, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-02-18	facts 2, latest filing 2026-02-18, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0234	0.5285	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / analyst_revision hit 0.5402 samples 5175; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.5300 samples 500; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.1364	0.5285	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; defense_world / analyst_revision hit 0.5207 samples 5175
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.1067	0.5489	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	-0.0298	0.2194	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0244	0.2158	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.0401	0.2261	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4700	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 7.2812, P/B 2.5513, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4667	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 7.2812, peer P/E 15.5201
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7918	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0417, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1480	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 2.5513, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4536	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin 0.1005, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6054	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 2.5513, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0774
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6754	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 1.1591, PEG proxy 0.0628
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3233	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0417, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0740	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis n/a, segments 0, HHI , loss ratio 0.0000
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7154	0.6417	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 3/3, quality pct 0.8577, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.7188	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M 1.8598, indices 5/8, quality pct 0.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0324	0.1000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7785	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0774
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.3978	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6751	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3213	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0417, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.8203	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0774
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8851	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0774, EV/EBITDA 17.1131, FCF yield 0.0417
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.5291	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0634, FCF yield 0.0417, share growth 0.0248
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.4807	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.1086, current ratio 1.8932, net cash/market cap -0.0098
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.1975	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0018, issuance -0.0240, growth 1.1591
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4385	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.7350, ROIC 0.0774, market cap 10186240000
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8363	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0729, yield spread -0.0312, beta 0.2000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9031	0.5333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0312, margin 0.1338, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9631	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 1.6393, base intrinsic/price 2.4008, cash-flow yield 0.0417
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.4732	0.4441	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0185, p_up 0.4441, value pct 0.7350

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0234	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3570
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0064	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0420	0.0359	5	5	current / review / inferred

SII

Research Thesis

Thesis: SII has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 58.45 and confidence 0.6390. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0535; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0501; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0413. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0116.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0535; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0501; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0413
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0116
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 13
Aggregate score: 58.45
Prediction score: 58.45
Confidence: 0.6390
Expected return estimate: -0.0047
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Asset Management
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.2756; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0535	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6457; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0501	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1013; confidence 0.4320; expected return -0.0047	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0413	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1932; confidence 0.4745	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0337	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.3000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0116	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0724; confidence 0.8792	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0021	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0535	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0501	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0413	+#.......................	0.4320	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0337	+#.......................	0.4745	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0116	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0021	+#.......................	0.8792	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6457	0.0501	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.2756	0.0535	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.3000	-0.0116	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1093	0.0134	0.4780	0.0089
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1075	0.0109	0.4498	0.0065
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0680	0.0055	0.3979	-0.0016
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.0915	0.0056	0.3695	-0.0185
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1437	0.0059	0.4112	-0.0586
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1832	0.0096	0.5268
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1986	0.0087	0.4917
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1341	0.0047	0.3968
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2002	0.0052	0.4555
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.3169	0.0055	0.4582
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0724	0.0021	0.8792

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0535 (signal 0.2756, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0501 (signal 0.6457, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0134 (signal 0.1093, confidence 0.4780)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0109 (signal 0.1075, confidence 0.4498)
neural_market_horizon h1 weighted 0.0096 (signal 0.1832, confidence 0.5268)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6390.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0116 (signal -0.3000, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-19	21	-0.7015	0.8127	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=27
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-19	21	-0.6858	0.6339	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=9
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-19	21	-0.4893	0.7832	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=17
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.3142	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-19	21	-0.5861	0.4165	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=7
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.2189	0.7040	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Financial Services; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Asset Management
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-19	21	-0.3022	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1945	0.6649	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis geography, segments 2, HHI 0.6569, loss ratio 0.0000
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-19	21	-0.3201	0.3851	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1556	0.5678	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: restatement.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.1429	0.5456	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, risk_factor_language.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-02-19	21	-0.1137	0.5876	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	facts 2, latest filing 2026-02-19, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	-0.0422	0.5778	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 1/2, quality pct 0.4789, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0250	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0200	0.5011	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4900	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4911	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5133	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: 13F-HR, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed True
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0535	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 4/8, quality pct , suppressed True
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5600	0.6487	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=4
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4919	0.7269	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=16
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4004	0.4529	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=6
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.7000	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.6800	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1582	0.4391	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=5
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-02	1	0.3600	0.1922	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-02	event_count=1

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-05-15	400	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Low / Watch.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-20 13:00:53+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 08:57:22.266046+00:00	59	4 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Sprott Inc.
Classification: Financials / Financials / Credit Candidate
Scoring model: Financials
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$129.94	Market cap	$3.35B
P/E	31.99	P/S	25.72
P/B	9.67	P/FCF	85.31
FCF yield	1.2%	Revenue growth YoY	200.0%
Gross margin	91.6%	Operating margin	28.8%
Net margin	20.1%	ROE	7.6%
Debt / equity	0.00	Current ratio	2.99
Net cash / market cap	5.2%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$26.78M

Score	Value
Valuation	28.43
Growth	99.03
Profitability	86.01
Balance sheet	84.08
Cash flow	60.03
Total fundamental	63.78
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	63.78

Why It Screened Well

Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 200.0%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: -0.1%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -0.0%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
GBDC	1	yes	$3.48B	36.89	n/a	18.85	0.89	1.1%
CNS	2	yes	$3.61B	54.07	18.99	21.94	5.71	-1.6%
FSK	3	yes	$3.05B	23.05	n/a	27.15	0.54	-0.4%
HTGC	4	yes	$2.94B	40.21	15.88	28.14	1.21	-8.5%
DBRG	5	yes	$2.86B	55.62	34.63	23.64	1.31	-1.4%
AB	6	yes	$4.09B	64.82	10.16	37.54	2.75	2.6%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-05-15	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-15 20:52:21+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000091957426003539/0000919574-26-003539-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000091957426003539/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SCHEDULE 13G/A	2026-05-15 20:49:47+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000091957426003535/0000919574-26-003535-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000091957426003535/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SC 13G/A	2026-05-15 16:52:21+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000091957426003539/0000919574-26-003539-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000091957426003539/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	SC 13G/A	2026-05-15 16:49:47+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000091957426003535/0000919574-26-003535-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1134115/000091957426003535/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-08	13F-HR	2026-05-08 19:27:01+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000151292026000012/0001512920-26-000012-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000151292026000012/xslForm13F_X02/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-08	13F-HR	2026-05-08 15:27:01+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000151292026000012/0001512920-26-000012-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000151292026000012/information_table.xml)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-07 00:28:03+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000110465926056498/0001104659-26-056498-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000110465926056498/tm2613824d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-07	6-K	2026-05-06 20:28:03+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000110465926056498/0001104659-26-056498-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000110465926056498/tm2613824d1_6k.htm)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-06 11:00:15+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000162828026030889/0001628280-26-030889-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000162828026030889/sprott-q12026earningsx6xk.htm)
2026-05-06	6-K	2026-05-06 07:00:15+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000162828026030889/0001628280-26-030889-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1512920/000162828026030889/sprott2026q1-mdaandfinanci.htm)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 30.00
Governance review label: Low / Watch
Summary: Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	6-K	0	0
2	6-K	0	0
3	40-F	1	2
4	40-F	1	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-20 13:00:53+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0724
Confidence: 0.8792
Top event classes: issuer_release, analyst_revision, macro_sector, product_contract_partnership, financing_liquidity
Publisher mix: issuer_wire_release: 8, unknown: 5, market_analysis: 4, analyst_forecaster: 3
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (17 factual/mixed, 3 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.072; top events: issuer_release, analyst_revision, macro_sector.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7410	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
corporate_action	0.6800	0.7410	0.6800	issuer_wire_release	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.7410	0.5600	issuer_wire_release	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.7410	0.5600	issuer_wire_release	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.5910	0.5600	unknown	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
product_contract_partnership	0.5600	0.5218	0.5600	market_analysis	Product, contract, partnership, or commercialization event
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
issuer_release	0.5400	0.7660	0.5400	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6500	0.3848
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5900	0.4184
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5900	0.4184
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5900	0.4184
analyst_revision	organization	RBC Capital	organization-level	0.1750	0.5556
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	0.0000	0.5218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-20 13:00:53+00:00	unknown	tickerreport	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Sprott (TSE:SII) Stock Price Passes Above 200 Day Moving Average – Should You Sell?
2026-06-19 07:01:06+00:00	unknown	americanbankingnews	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Sprott (TSE:SII) Stock Price Passes Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average – What’s Next?
2026-06-12 12:02:38.577508+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.6500	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-10 10:27:40+00:00	factual_event	proactiveinvestors.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0700	commodities_mining	Power Metallic Mines closes C$28.2M private placement with Sprott lead order
2026-06-04 07:00:00+00:00	factual_event	newsfilecorp.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.1200	none	RETRANSMISSION: Manganese X Energy Announces Early Exercise of Warrants by Eric Sprott
2026-06-04 00:15:00+00:00	factual_event	newsfilecorp.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.1200	none	Manganese X Energy Announces Early Exercise of Warrants by Eric Sprott
2026-06-03 20:45:00+00:00	unknown	gurufocus.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Sprott Inc (SII) Shares Fall 4.0% -- What GF Score of 90 Tells Investors
2026-06-03 13:47:23+00:00	unknown	fool.com	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0000	commodities_mining	This Asset Manager Initiated a $7.7 Million Sprott Position. Is the Precious Metals Rally Just Getting Started?

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 4,103
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $128.69
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	14.1%
20 sessions	-5.5%
60 sessions	-11.4%
252 sessions	105.4%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/SII.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4780	0.1533	0.3687	0.1093	0.0089	0.4780	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4498	0.2078	0.3424	0.1075	0.0065	0.4498	pass	n/a
10	U	0.3979	0.2721	0.3300	0.0680	-0.0016	0.3979	pass	n/a
21	U	0.3695	0.3524	0.2780	0.0915	-0.0185	0.3695	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4112	0.3213	0.2675	0.1437	-0.0586	0.4112	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5268	0.1297	0.3436	0.1832
5	0.4917	0.2151	0.2931	0.1986
10	0.3968	0.3405	0.2627	0.1341
21	0.3724	0.4555	0.1722	0.2002
63	0.4582	0.4006	0.1412	0.3169

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Loan quality, credit-loss reserves, funding costs, net interest margin, and capital ratios.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.1556	0.5678	-1	4	40-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: restatement.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.1429	0.5456	-1	4	40-F, 6-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, risk_factor_language.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0250	0.5011	0	4	144, 40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.0200	0.5011	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5133	0	4	13F-HR, 40-F, 6-K, SC 13D, SC 13D/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: 13F-HR, SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	3, 4, 40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.4911	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 6-K.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	0.0000	0.4900	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Governance Related Party: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	40-F, 6-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
No source-context SEC snippets could be extracted from current cached filing assets

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.7000	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.6800	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_product_contract_event	event	1	0.5600	0.6487	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.4919	0.7269	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.4004	0.4529	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.1582	0.4391	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0700	0.4391	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0232	0.4391	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_financing_liquidity_event	event	1	0.0000	0.6263	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_macro_sector_event	event	1	0.0000	0.5763	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.0000	0.4940	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_operational_labor_event	event	1	0.0000	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_cybersecurity_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	1	27492	0.5126	0.0006	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	5	27479	0.5116	0.0008	trainable	True
RBC Capital	analyst_revision	20	27166	0.5430	0.0059	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	1	7318	0.5259	0.0021	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	5	7259	0.5255	0.0037	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	analyst_revision	20	6919	0.5372	0.0100	trainable	True
Seeking Alpha	market_opinion	1	5633	0.5209	0.0009	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0401	0.0530	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	5 feature families, 7 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0401	0.0530	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	5 feature families, 7 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0401	0.0530	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	5 feature families, 7 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0536	0.0961	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0536	0.0961	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0536	0.0961	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.2545	0.0195	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Professional Services Revenue (has_demand_driver, score 0.0354)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.2545	0.0195	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Professional Services Revenue (has_demand_driver, score 0.0354)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.2545	0.0195	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Professional Services Revenue (has_demand_driver, score 0.0354)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.0759	0.6500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles requirement 2.5390949; Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities requirement 1.5176315; Securities, commodity contracts, and investments requirement 1.9742957
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1320	0.6600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 3, auto-linked 1, active relationships 11, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1800	0.3600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-02-19	facts 2, latest filing 2026-02-19, flags missing_core_xbrl_facts
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0232	0.4391	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0700	0.4391	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.1582	0.4391	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2847	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 31.9877, P/B 9.6688, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.1469	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 31.9877, peer P/E 19.9123
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2729	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0117, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2034	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 9.6688, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.1815	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.7303, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5099	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 9.6688, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0647
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3182	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 2.0000, PEG proxy 0.1599
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2296	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0117, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield , tag n/a, qtrs n/a, cutoff n/a
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1945	0.6649	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis geography, segments 2, HHI 0.6569, loss ratio 0.0000
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.0422	0.5778	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 1/2, quality pct 0.4789, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 2/5, suppressed True
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0535	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 4/8, quality pct , suppressed True
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1161	0.1900	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 11, latest 2026-01-30, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7824	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0647
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0243	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3142	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5676	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0117, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7392	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0647
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3752	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0647, EV/EBITDA 75.0000, FCF yield 0.0117
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.8078	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0570, FCF yield 0.0117, share growth -0.0012
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.7582	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0000, current ratio 2.9920, net cash/market cap 0.0523
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.4955	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance -0.0001, growth 2.0000
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3167	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.3577, ROIC 0.0647, market cap 3350542891
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5718	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0952, yield spread -0.0834, beta 1.0000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6230	0.2333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0834, margin 0.0816, terminal growth 0.0400
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5526	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin -0.5701, base intrinsic/price 0.3946, cash-flow yield 0.0117
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff n/a, score , roots none
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff n/a, score , commodities none
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.0610	0.3695	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0185, p_up 0.3695, value pct 0.3577

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Has Rate Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0091	0.0992	1	1	current / review / inferred

HCI

Research Thesis

Thesis: HCI has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 58.38 and confidence 0.6211. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.1066; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0528; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0216. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0291.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.1066; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0528; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0216
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0291
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 14
Aggregate score: 58.38
Prediction score: 58.38
Confidence: 0.6211
Expected return estimate: 0.0004
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.5496; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.1066	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6806; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0528	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.7500; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0291	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.0529; confidence 0.4121; expected return 0.0004	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0216	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.0885; confidence 0.4183	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0154	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0090; confidence 0.8800	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0003	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.1066	+###.....................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0528	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0291	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0216	+#.......................	0.4121	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0154	+#.......................	0.4183	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0003	+#.......................	0.8800	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6806	0.0528	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.5496	0.1066	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.7500	-0.0291	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.0536	0.0065	0.3876	-0.0010
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.0337	0.0034	0.4042	-0.0019
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0242	0.0020	0.4095	-0.0009
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.0504	0.0031	0.4880	-0.0012
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1604	0.0065	0.3970	0.0159
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.0903	0.0047	0.4261
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.0698	0.0030	0.3738
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.0613	0.0021	0.3983
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.0831	0.0022	0.5082
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.1920	0.0034	0.4108
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0090	0.0003	0.8800

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.1066 (signal 0.5496, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0528 (signal 0.6806, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0065 (signal 0.0536, confidence 0.3876)
markov_state_blend h63 weighted 0.0065 (signal 0.1604, confidence 0.3970)
neural_market_horizon h1 weighted 0.0047 (signal 0.0903, confidence 0.4261)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6211.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0291 (signal -0.7500, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-1.0000	0.9100	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=256
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-1.0000	0.8700	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=65
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.7452	0.8833	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 6/6, quality pct 0.8726, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6188	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4665	0.9500	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 6, HHI 0.6168, loss ratio 0.2881
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.6450	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, data_breach, enforcement, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4405	0.8967	current/review; cutoff 2025-12-31	sector=Financial Services; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Insurance - Property & Casualty
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.5000	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: guarantee, promissory_note, related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4071	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-0.4219	0.5601	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3056	0.7367	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: material_weakness, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1985	0.7500	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield 0.0008, tag PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock, qtrs 4, cutoff 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	-0.1600	0.8400	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	facts 9, latest filing 2026-05-07, flags fmp_sec_debt_ratio_mismatch
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-0.3022	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2000	0.6467	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: negative review features: proxy_contest, super_voting; positive review features: beneficial_owner_increase; recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-0.2434	0.4984	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=2
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-02-26	21	-0.2139	0.4438	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-26	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=1
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-05-07	21	-0.1394	0.6273	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=5
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0923	0.5356	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: negative review features: option_exercise_sale; recent activity forms: 3, 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0750	0.5356	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low positive evidence; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: positive review features: material_contract; recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0750	0.5233	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B3, 424B4, 424B5, S-1, S-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0350	0.6311	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; structured XBRL features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; recent activity forms: 8-K, S-1, S-3.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.4800	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0680	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 3/5, suppressed True
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0625	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 4/8, quality pct , suppressed True
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3600	0.6218	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=4
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4800	0.2470	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2149	0.4209	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=2
News / Forecast	news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	enabled-underused; review	2026-06-17	20	0.1225	0.5264	current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	evidence_rows=8
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1006	0.4756	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=12
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1
News / Forecast	news_cybersecurity_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=1

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-15	1005	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Medium.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-17 18:01:00+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:07.245149+00:00	300	12 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: HCI Group, Inc.
Classification: Insurance / Insurance Value Candidate
Scoring model: Insurance
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$155.01	Market cap	$1.98B
P/E	6.00	P/S	7.26
P/B	1.62	P/FCF	11.86
FCF yield	8.4%	Revenue growth YoY	11.9%
Gross margin	73.0%	Operating margin	47.5%
Net margin	30.2%	ROE	6.7%
Debt / equity	0.06	Current ratio	10.00
Net cash / market cap	49.9%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$27.50M

Score	Value
Valuation	79.38
Growth	63.67
Profitability	87.95
Balance sheet	88.69
Cash flow	95.82
Total fundamental	79.48
Basic risk flags	20.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	77.48

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 6.00.

Fundamental Risk Flags

Insurance exposure - review underwriting cycle and catastrophe risk

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: 1.6%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -0.8%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
STC	1	yes	$1.95B	40.90	27.96	2.43	1.16	-1.1%
HMN	2	yes	$1.84B	55.28	10.67	4.10	1.20	3.5%
SKWD	3	yes	$1.79B	60.87	8.88	4.46	1.44	6.7%
PRA	4	yes	$1.24B	43.95	37.61	4.85	0.95	-1.7%
UFCS	5	yes	$1.12B	60.03	7.88	2.56	1.00	5.9%
HGTY	6	yes	$3.51B	39.29	n/a	3.41	3.46	0.8%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 21:11:49+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271289/0001193125-26-271289-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271289/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 21:10:40+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271286/0001193125-26-271286-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271286/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 21:09:48+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271284/0001193125-26-271284-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271284/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 21:08:33+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271274/0001193125-26-271274-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271274/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 21:06:21+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271261/0001193125-26-271261-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271261/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	8-K	2026-06-15 20:30:16+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271159/0001193125-26-271159-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271159/hci-20260611.htm)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 17:11:49+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271289/0001193125-26-271289-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271289/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 17:10:40+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271286/0001193125-26-271286-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271286/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 17:09:48+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271284/0001193125-26-271284-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271284/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2026-06-15	4	2026-06-15 17:08:33+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271274/0001193125-26-271274-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526271274/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 75.00
Governance review label: Medium
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (8 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (1 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (2 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (4 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Control	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	8-K	0	0	0	0
2	10-Q	2	0	0	2
3	DEF 14A	2	1	0	0
4	10-K	4	0	2	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-17 18:01:00+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0090
Confidence: 0.8800
Top event classes: analyst_revision, financing_liquidity, market_opinion, price_target_summary, price_target_consensus
Publisher mix: market_analysis: 12, issuer_wire_release: 4, analyst_forecaster: 4
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (10 factual/mixed, 10 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.009; top events: analyst_revision, financing_liquidity, market_opinion.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
capital_return	0.5200	0.5218	0.5200	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action
issuer_release	0.4800	0.7410	0.4800	issuer_wire_release	Issuer release or distributor announcement
financing_liquidity	0.0000	0.7410	0.7400	issuer_wire_release	Financing, liquidity, restructuring, or solvency event
financing_liquidity	0.0000	0.7410	0.7400	issuer_wire_release	Financing, liquidity, restructuring, or solvency event
financing_liquidity	0.0000	0.7410	0.7400	issuer_wire_release	Financing, liquidity, restructuring, or solvency event
capital_return	0.0000	0.7410	0.5200	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
earnings_result	0.0000	0.7410	0.6100	issuer_wire_release	Earnings result or earnings-call readout
cybersecurity	0.0000	0.5218	0.7600	market_analysis	Cybersecurity, breach, ransomware, or vulnerability event

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5750	0.4100
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5750	0.4100
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5750	0.4100
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.4643	0.4940
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	-0.4598	0.3611
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	-0.4001	0.4913
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218
market_opinion	organization	Zacks Investment Research	organization-level	-0.3600	0.6218

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-17 18:01:00+00:00	factual_event	globenewswire.com	neutral_watch	0.8500	0.0000	weather_disasters_insurance	HCI Group Enters the Tokenized Real-World Assets Market with Pilot Project Mirroring Returns of Specific Participations in HCI's Catastrophe XOL Reinsurance Programs
2026-06-15 10:55:31+00:00	opinion_forecast	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.8500	0.0000	earnings_guidance_analysts	Does HCI Group (HCI) Have the Potential to Rally 44.39% as Wall Street Analysts Expect?
2026-06-15 03:05:27.870637+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	negative_risk	0.4001	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 130.20
2026-06-13 07:26:28.583060+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	negative_risk	0.4598	0.0000	none	Price target consensus: 126.50
2026-06-12 19:01:12+00:00	unknown	zacks.com	negative_risk	0.3500	-0.1833	none	HCI Group (HCI) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know
2026-06-12 10:00:42+00:00	unknown	zacks.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
2026-06-10 16:21:33+00:00	factual_event	globenewswire.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	SurancePlus to Launch Tokenized Reinsurance RWA Securities on Solana, Bringing Reinsurance Risk On-Chain Through HCI Group's Fortex Re Program
2026-06-10 16:21:00+00:00	factual_event	globenewswire.com	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	SurancePlus to Launch Tokenized Reinsurance RWA Securities on Solana, Bringing Reinsurance Risk On-Chain Through HCI Group's Fortex Re Program

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 4,464
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $164.54
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	2.1%
20 sessions	5.2%
60 sessions	5.1%
252 sessions	6.3%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/HCI.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.3876	0.2783	0.3341	0.0536	-0.0010	0.3876	pass	n/a
5	F	0.3148	0.4042	0.2811	0.0337	-0.0019	0.4042	pass	n/a
10	F	0.3074	0.4095	0.2831	0.0242	-0.0009	0.4095	pass	n/a
21	F	0.2812	0.4880	0.2308	0.0504	-0.0012	0.4880	pass	n/a
63	F	0.3817	0.3970	0.2213	0.1604	0.0159	0.3970	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.4261	0.2380	0.3359	0.0903
5	0.3480	0.3738	0.2782	0.0698
10	0.3315	0.3983	0.2702	0.0613
21	0.2874	0.5082	0.2043	0.0831
63	0.3906	0.4108	0.1986	0.1920

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Reserve development, catastrophe exposure, combined ratio, and underwriting-cycle quality.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.6450	0.6567	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Medium negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, data_breach, enforcement, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	-0.5000	0.6567	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Medium negative evidence: SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: guarantee, promissory_note, related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.4071	0.6567	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Medium negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.3056	0.7367	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Low negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: material_weakness, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	-0.2000	0.6467	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A, SC 13D	Low negative evidence: SEC Ownership And Control: negative review features: proxy_contest, super_voting; positive review features: beneficial_owner_increase; recent activity forms: SC 13D, SC 13D/A, SC 13G, SC 13G/A.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	-0.0923	0.5356	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 3, 4, 8-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Insider Behavior: negative review features: option_exercise_sale; recent activity forms: 3, 4.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0750	0.5356	1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, 8-K/A, DEF 14A	Low positive evidence: SEC Material Event Intelligence: positive review features: material_contract; recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0750	0.5233	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 144, 424B3, 424B4	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B3, 424B4, 424B5, S-1, S-3.
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.0350	0.6311	0	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A, S-1	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Distress And Financing: positive review features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; structured XBRL features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt; recent activity forms: 8-K, S-1, S-3.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.4800	0	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: reviewed cached filing text without major configured features.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
10-K	2026-02-26	Related Party Transactions HCPCI, TTIC, CORE, and Tailrow have reinstatement premium protection reinsurance contracts...	related_party	related party	section-supported	me of $ 56,830 , statutory net loss of $ 9,642 , and statutory net income of $ 21,044 during 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively. Note 24 -- Related Party Transactions HCPCI, TTIC, CORE, and Tailrow have reinstatement...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e9/e95675a6b209522082b7e0e3176175c3358dbe24b30ce0f902950dc9b90c395f.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526076743/hci-20251231.htm; accession 0001193125-26-076743; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.530530+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-26	Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters 114 Item 13 Certain Re...	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	ecutive Compensation 114 Item 12 Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters 114 Item 13 Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence 114...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e9/e95675a6b209522082b7e0e3176175c3358dbe24b30ce0f902950dc9b90c395f.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526076743/hci-20251231.htm; accession 0001193125-26-076743; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.530530+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
DEF 14A	2026-04-29	Transactions with Related Persons 52 Adverse Interests 53 Anti-Hedging Policy 53 Code of Ethics 53 Insider Trading Po...	related_party	transactions with related	section-supported	s 51 Board Observer Program 51 Director Education 51 Annual Evaluations 51 Director Share Ownership Policy 52 CEO Share Ownership Policy 52 Transactions with Related Persons 52 Adverse Interests 53 Anti-Hedging Policy...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/57/572713b480237c1b85463830722da911769193673eb5aae63c1de1afb7cf708e.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526191649/d49080ddef14a.htm; accession 0001193125-26-191649; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:38.164325+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-Q	2026-05-07	Related Party Transactions HCPCI, TTIC, CORE, and Tailrow have reinstatement premium protection reinsurance contracts...	related_party	related party	section-supported	s of March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025, the FIGA assessments payable by the Company were $ 2,352 and $ 2,034 , respectively . Note 20 -- Related Party Transactions HCPCI, TTIC, CORE, and Tailrow have reinstatement...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/23/23447e86bf19df399bb49f8a710393802c109124f901f92b7fd8755571938876.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526211993/hci-20260331.htm; accession 0001193125-26-211993; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:49.919672+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
DEF 14A	2026-04-29	near matched term	compensation	executive compensation	compensation-context	mpensation Committee 24 Compensation Discussion and Analysis 24 Compensation Highlights 24 Principal Objectives and Approach 24 Elements of Executive Compensation 25 Benchmarking for 2025 CEO Compensation Decisions 25...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/57/572713b480237c1b85463830722da911769193673eb5aae63c1de1afb7cf708e.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526191649/d49080ddef14a.htm; accession 0001193125-26-191649; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:38.164325+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-Q	2026-05-07	near matched term	compensation	stock award	compensation-context	-K Item 601(b)(10)(iv). 10-Q 10.47 8/8/2025 10.42^ Exzeo Group, Inc. 2021 Equity Incentive Plan 8-K 10.5 3/1/2021 10.43^ Form of Restricted Stock Award Agreement of TypTap Insurance Group, Inc. 8-K 10.6 3/1/2021 10.44...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/23/23447e86bf19df399bb49f8a710393802c109124f901f92b7fd8755571938876.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526211993/hci-20260331.htm; accession 0001193125-26-211993; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:49.919672+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-Q	2026-05-07	near matched term	compensation	option award	compensation-context	nc. dated October 1, 2021. 8-K 99.1 10/7/2021 10.45^ Exzeo Group, Inc. 2021 Omnibus Incentive Plan. 8-K 99.2 10/7/2021 10.46^ Form of Stock Option Award under the Exzeo Group, Inc. under the 2021 Omnibus Plan S-1 10.1...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/23/23447e86bf19df399bb49f8a710393802c109124f901f92b7fd8755571938876.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526211993/hci-20260331.htm; accession 0001193125-26-211993; cached 2026-06-02 18:12:49.919672+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-26	near matched term	related_party	amounts due from	term-context	ion, results of operations and cash flows. 13 With respect to the reinsurance contracts we currently have in effect, our ability to recover amounts due from reinsurers is subject to such reinsurers’ ability and willin...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/e9/e95675a6b209522082b7e0e3176175c3358dbe24b30ce0f902950dc9b90c395f.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400810/000119312526076743/hci-20251231.htm; accession 0001193125-26-076743; cached 2026-06-02 19:47:59.530530+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.4800	0.2470	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.3600	0.6218	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.2149	0.4209	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.1225	0.5264	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.1006	0.4756	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	-0.0179	0.5064	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0104	0.5064	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_financing_liquidity_event	event	1	0.0000	0.7410	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.5949	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_cybersecurity_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
No filed government-trade activity for this symbol in the structured feed

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Truist Securities	analyst_revision	1	18890	0.5117	0.0009	trainable	True
Truist Securities	analyst_revision	5	18877	0.5240	0.0029	trainable	True
Truist Securities	analyst_revision	20	18585	0.5435	0.0109	trainable	True
Zacks Investment Research	analyst_revision	1	18499	0.5233	0.0012	trainable	True
Zacks Investment Research	analyst_revision	5	18448	0.5293	0.0038	trainable	True
Zacks Investment Research	analyst_revision	20	18124	0.5357	0.0118	trainable	True
Oppenheimer	analyst_revision	1	13381	0.5191	0.0008	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0251	0.0672	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	5 feature families, 8 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0251	0.0672	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	5 feature families, 8 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0251	0.0672	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	5 feature families, 8 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0295	0.1176	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0295	0.1176	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0295	0.1176	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-06-18	Financial Activities Labor Market (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5282); Yield curve (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score 0.1378); Credit spreads (has_credit_spread_sensitivity, score -0.1274)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.0308	0.0760	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Electronics retail demand (has_demand_driver, score 0.1532); Housing demand (has_demand_driver, score -0.0327)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.0308	0.0760	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Electronics retail demand (has_demand_driver, score 0.1532); Housing demand (has_demand_driver, score -0.0327)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.0308	0.0760	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Financial Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.5821); Electronics retail demand (has_demand_driver, score 0.1532); Housing demand (has_demand_driver, score -0.0327)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.0759	0.6500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles requirement 2.5390949; Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities requirement 1.5176315; Securities, commodity contracts, and investments requirement 1.9742957
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5600	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 3, auto-linked 1, active relationships 0, FIGI rows 0
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.1600	0.8400	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-05-07	facts 9, latest filing 2026-05-07, flags fmp_sec_debt_ratio_mismatch
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0104	0.5064	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.4645 samples 1266; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5154 samples 92457
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	-0.0179	0.5064	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5333 samples 92348
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.1225	0.5264	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / market_opinion hit 0.4795 samples 1266; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6630	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 6.0027, P/B 1.6185, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1565	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 6.0027, peer P/E 18.6001
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9130	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0843, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6319	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 1.6185, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7145	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin 0.5218, NCAV/market cap , SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6124	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 1.6185, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0368
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4900	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.1190, PEG proxy 0.5046
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4432	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0843, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1985	0.7500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield 0.0008, tag PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock, qtrs 4, cutoff 2025-12-31
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4665	0.9500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 6, HHI 0.6168, loss ratio 0.2881
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7452	0.8833	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 6/6, quality pct 0.8726, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0680	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z , factors 3/5, suppressed True
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0625	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M , indices 4/8, quality pct , suppressed True
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1161	0.1900	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 11, latest 2026-01-30, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.6887	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0368
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5320	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 20.0000, flags Insurance exposure - review underwriting cycle and catastrophe risk
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6188	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8437	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0843, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7034	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0368
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8270	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0368, EV/EBITDA 6.8531, FCF yield 0.0843
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7193	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0316, FCF yield 0.0843, share growth 0.0155
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.7886	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0292, current ratio 10.0000, net cash/market cap 0.4988
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.7620	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance -0.0085, growth 0.1190
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5422	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.8315, ROIC 0.0368, market cap 1978672888
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-1.0000	0.1667	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield , events 12m 0, years 0
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield , EPS growth , analysts 0
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6774	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0996, yield spread -0.0153, beta 1.0000
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.8411	0.2333	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0153, margin 0.0442, terminal growth 0.0297
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9399	0.3500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin 0.9187, base intrinsic/price 1.8008, cash-flow yield 0.0843
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff n/a, score , roots none
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0000	0.0500	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff n/a, score , commodities none
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.3488	0.4880	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return -0.0012, p_up 0.2812, value pct 0.8315

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Activities Labor Market	-0.5282	0.0553	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Yield curve	0.1378	0.1560	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6290
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_credit_spread_sensitivity	macro_variable:Credit spreads	-0.1274	0.1648	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.6630
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Financial Business Formation	-0.5821	0.0347	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3910

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Credit Spread Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1274	0.0923	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	0.2592	0.0161	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0510	0.0386	3	3	current / review / inferred
Has Rate Sensitivity / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0091	0.0992	1	1	current / review / inferred

NEM

Research Thesis

Thesis: NEM has a Cautious positive candidate decision read with aggregate score 58.28 and confidence 0.6492. The positive case is driven by Fundamental Value contributed 0.0580; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0502; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0480. The main reasons to avoid, size down, or require review are Governance Risk contributed -0.0272.

Decision read: Cautious positive candidate
Why it is in the report: Fundamental Value contributed 0.0580; Fundamental Quality contributed 0.0502; Markov State Blend contributed 0.0480
Why not / review controls: Governance Risk contributed -0.0272
Data completeness: 18 component rows present; 0 configured component-horizon rows missing.

Decision Snapshot

Opportunity rank: 15
Aggregate score: 58.28
Prediction score: 58.28
Confidence: 0.6492
Expected return estimate: 0.0006
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Universe segment: core_liquid_equity_v1
Freshness: current
Eligibility: eligible

Decision Data Matrix

Logic Piece	Decision Read	Data Used	Model Impact	Status
Fundamental Value	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family value; signal 0.2988; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.1940; weighted contribution 0.0580	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Fundamental Quality	Material support	1 row(s); h1; family quality; signal 0.6470; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0776; weighted contribution 0.0502	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Markov State Blend	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1179; confidence 0.4508; expected return 0.0006	weight 0.4074; weighted contribution 0.0480	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Neural Market Horizon	Support	5 row(s); h1, h5, h10, h21, h63; family return_prediction; signal 0.1970; confidence 0.4923	weight 0.1746; weighted contribution 0.0344	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Governance Risk	Risk penalty	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal -0.7000; confidence 0.8500	weight 0.0388; weighted contribution -0.0272	freshness current; eligibility eligible
News Event Intelligence	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family event; signal 0.0716; confidence 0.8601	weight 0.0291; weighted contribution 0.0021	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Government Trade Activity	Neutral / small	3 row(s); h1, h5, h21; family event; signal 0.0000; confidence 0.0500	weight 0.0300; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible
Liquidity Dilution Risk	Neutral / small	1 row(s); h1; family risk; signal 0.0000; confidence 1.0000	weight 0.0485; weighted contribution 0.0000	freshness current; eligibility eligible

Component Contribution Waterfall

This shows the champion policy rows that actually moved the current rank. Review-only evidence appears later and should not be confused with weighted rank contribution.

Component	Family	Weighted Impact	Visual Bar	Confidence	Status
fundamental_value	value	0.0580	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
fundamental_quality	quality	0.0502	+#.......................	1.0000	current/eligible
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	0.0480	+#.......................	0.4508	current/eligible
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	0.0344	+#.......................	0.4923	current/eligible
governance_risk	risk	-0.0272	-#.......................	0.8500	current/eligible
news_event_intelligence	event	0.0021	+#.......................	0.8601	current/eligible
government_trade_activity	event	0.0000	0........................	0.0500	current/eligible
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	0.0000	0........................	1.0000	current/eligible

Weighted Component Contributions

Component	Family	Horizon	Weight	Signal	Weighted Signal	Confidence	Expected Return
fundamental_quality	quality	1	0.0776	0.6470	0.0502	1.0000
fundamental_value	value	1	0.1940	0.2988	0.0580	1.0000
governance_risk	risk	1	0.0388	-0.7000	-0.0272	0.8500
government_trade_activity	event	1	0.0120	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	5	0.0100	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
government_trade_activity	event	21	0.0080	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
liquidity_dilution_risk	risk	1	0.0485	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	1	0.1222	0.1131	0.0138	0.4900	0.0027
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	5	0.1018	0.1101	0.0112	0.4550	-0.0031
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	10	0.0815	0.0926	0.0075	0.4261	-0.0036
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	21	0.0611	0.1314	0.0080	0.4032	0.0007
markov_state_blend	return_prediction	63	0.0407	0.1819	0.0074	0.4428	0.0115
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	1	0.0524	0.1752	0.0092	0.5348
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	5	0.0437	0.1975	0.0086	0.5101
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	10	0.0349	0.1517	0.0053	0.4467
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	21	0.0262	0.2220	0.0058	0.4256
neural_market_horizon	return_prediction	63	0.0175	0.3139	0.0055	0.5115
news_event_intelligence	event	1	0.0291	0.0716	0.0021	0.8601

This is a research explanation of registered model inputs, not a trade instruction.

Ranking Explanation

Why It Ranked Well

fundamental_value h1 weighted 0.0580 (signal 0.2988, confidence 1.0000)
fundamental_quality h1 weighted 0.0502 (signal 0.6470, confidence 1.0000)
markov_state_blend h1 weighted 0.0138 (signal 0.1131, confidence 0.4900)
markov_state_blend h5 weighted 0.0112 (signal 0.1101, confidence 0.4550)
neural_market_horizon h1 weighted 0.0092 (signal 0.1752, confidence 0.5348)
Overall confidence is comparatively strong at 0.6492.

What Held It Back Or Needs Review

governance_risk h1 weighted -0.0272 (signal -0.7000, confidence 0.8500)

Review-Only / Under-Used Evidence Board

Bucket	Component	Mode	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
SEC	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	0.9313	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M -3.1406, indices 7/8, quality pct 1.0000, suppressed False
SEC	sec_notes_legal_contingency_risk	review-only; review	2026-04-23	21	-1.0000	0.8908	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	regex=(contingen\\	commitment\\	litigation\\	legal\\	subsequent\\	environment\\	regulatory); scale=65.0; fact_rows=89
SEC	sec_notes_debt_liquidity_risk	review-only; review	2026-04-23	21	-0.9545	0.8749	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	regex=(debt\\	borrow\\	loan\\	creditfacility\\	lineofcredit\\	liquidity\\	covenant\\	default\\	maturity\\	operatinglease\\	financelease); scale=145.0; fact_rows=70
SEC	sec_notes_concentration_supply_risk	review-only; review	2026-04-23	21	-0.9161	0.7725	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	regex=(customer\\	supplier\\	concentration\\	creditrisk\\	majorcustomer\\	majorsupplier); scale=75.0; fact_rows=205
SEC	sec_statement_financial_quality_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.7046	0.9611	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 8/8, quality pct 0.8523, latest 2025-12-31
SEC	sector_specific_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6163	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
SEC	sec_statement_segment_sotp_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.6197	0.9500	current/review; cutoff 2026-02-28	sector=Basic Materials; source=core.sec_statement_numeric_fact; industry=Gold
SEC	sec_buyback_capital_return_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.5854	1.0000	current/review; cutoff 2026-05-27	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield 0.0107, tag StockRepurchasedAndRetiredDuringPeriodValue, qtrs 4, cutoff 2025-12-31
SEC	sec_distress_financing	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.6600	0.7767	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Distress And Financing: negative review features: bankruptcy, default_or_covenant, delisting, liquidity_warning; positive review features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.5595	0.8900	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z 3.6190, factors 4/5, suppressed False
SEC	sec_segment_sotp_value_score	review-only; review	2026-06-17	20	0.4379	0.9800	current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 19, HHI 0.1264, loss ratio 0.9000
SEC	sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.6450	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, data_breach, enforcement, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_accounting_quality	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.5167	0.7767	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, impairment, material_weakness, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_related_party_risk	review-only; review	2026-04-23	21	-0.7397	0.4126	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	regex=(relatedparty\\	relatedparties\\	relatedperson\\	affiliate\\	guarantee\\	promissory\\	duefromrelated\\	duetorelated); scale=45.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_disclosure_change_risk	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.4071	0.6567	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_segment_complexity_signal	review-only; review	2026-04-23	21	-0.3115	0.8271	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	regex=(segment\\	geograph\\	operatingsegment\\	reportableunit); scale=150.0; fact_rows=78
SEC	sec_notes_accounting_quality_risk	review-only; review	2026-04-23	21	-0.5755	0.4126	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	regex=(goingconcern\\	materialweakness\\	restatement\\	substantialdoubt\\	nonreliance\\	accountingerror\\	impairment\\	impair); scale=55.0; fact_rows=4
SEC	sec_governance_related_party	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.3625	0.6511	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Medium negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: guarantee, related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_notes_dilution_instrument_risk	review-only; review	2026-04-23	21	-0.3121	0.5410	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	regex=(warrantsandrights\\	warrantorright\\	classofwarrant\\	convertible\\	preferred\\	sharebased\\	sharebasedcompensation\\	stockoption\\	stockaward\\	equityaward); scale=125.0; fact_rows=14
SEC	sec_capital_structure_dilution	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.0750	0.5233	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Low negative evidence; signal_summary=SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B3, 424B5.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_insider_behavior	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_material_event_intelligence	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_merger_corporate_action	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: DEFM14A, S-4.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_ownership_control	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.5022	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	signal_label=Reviewed / no major signal; signal_summary=SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13G, SC 13G/A.; documents_reviewed=4
SEC	sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	review-only; review	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.8400	current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	facts 10, latest filing 2026-04-23, flags none
News / Forecast	news_product_contract_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.5600	0.7410	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=3
News / Forecast	news_issuer_release_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4472	0.7487	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=7
News / Forecast	news_capital_return_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.4873	0.5781	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=10
News / Forecast	news_market_opinion_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	-0.2700	0.6218	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=8
News / Forecast	news_regulatory_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2495	0.5901	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=11
News / Forecast	news_analyst_revision_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.2530	0.5375	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=33
News / Forecast	news_corporate_action_event	enabled-underused	2026-06-17	1	0.1109	0.5333	current/eligible; cutoff 2026-06-17	event_count=12

Evidence Completeness Checklist

Evidence Area	Status	Latest / Cutoff	Rows	Detail
Weighted ensemble inputs	current	2026-06-17	18	8 current available component families; 8 current paper-eligible families; 0 configured component-horizon row(s) missing. Missing required evidence: none. Current but ineligible: none.
Fundamentals and liquidity	current	2026-06-17	1	Statement freshness current; feature completeness 100.0%.
Markov state horizons	current	2026-06-17	5	5 report-eligible horizon rows.
Neural horizon overlay	current	2026-06-17	5	Neural probabilities are exposed separately from the Markov blend.
SEC filing metadata	available	2026-06-15	1034	Official filing index and document links.
SEC filing text / governance	current	2026-06-17	4	Evidence reviewed; label Medium.
SEC modular review families	current	2026-06-17	10	10 reviewed, 0 metadata-only, 0 unknown.
News event baseline	current	2026-06-17	20	Evidence reviewed; latest article 2026-06-22 09:05:17.897645+00:00.
Opinion / analyst forecast evidence	review	2026-06-22 09:13:26.325059+00:00	885	43 organization/author origins retained for track-record learning.
Forecaster reliability overlay	review	2026-06-17	27	Review-only unless a future champion policy assigns nonzero weight.
Government trade activity	current	2026-06-17	21	0 recent filed buy/sell disclosure(s) in the active lookback.

Fundamental Value And Business Quality

Company: Newmont Corporation
Classification: Mining / Critical Materials / Large Cap Quality
Scoring model: Mining
Financial statement date: 2026-03-31
Statement freshness: current
Feature completeness: 100.0%

Metric	Value	Metric	Value
Price	$107.50	Market cap	$114.76B
P/E	9.00	P/S	16.35
P/B	3.36	P/FCF	37.36
FCF yield	2.7%	Revenue growth YoY	47.5%
Gross margin	62.4%	Operating margin	60.6%
Net margin	45.4%	ROE	9.3%
Debt / equity	0.16	Current ratio	2.44
Net cash / market cap	2.8%	Avg. daily dollar volume	$986.60M

Score	Value
Valuation	58.67
Growth	90.90
Profitability	88.27
Balance sheet	70.53
Cash flow	79.69
Total fundamental	64.94
Basic risk flags	0.00
Risk-adjusted fundamental	64.94

Why It Screened Well

Low earnings multiple: P/E 9.00.
Year-over-year quarterly revenue growth is 47.5%.

Fundamental Risk Flags

No basic model-level risk flag triggered.

Liquidity And Dilution Review

Risk label: Low
Combined liquidity/dilution risk: 0.00
Shares growth YoY: -3.5%
Stock compensation / revenue: 0.0%
Net stock issuance / market cap: -1.7%

No major liquidity or dilution flag triggered from available curated fields.

Peer Comparison

Peer	Rank	Same Industry	Market Cap	Risk-Adjusted Fundamental	P/E	P/S	P/B	FCF Yield
AEM	1	yes	$87.26B	63.14	14.97	24.77	3.86	0.7%
B	2	yes	$69.27B	65.51	10.81	13.20	2.49	2.4%
WPM	3	yes	$58.15B	63.17	25.91	50.00	6.41	1.2%
FNV	4	yes	$43.68B	61.42	25.41	50.00	5.86	0.1%
KGC	5	yes	$34.71B	65.35	11.01	15.42	4.01	2.3%
AGI	6	yes	$16.33B	59.19	24.71	31.70	4.04	0.3%

Recent SEC Filing Metadata

Filing Date	Form	Accepted	SEC Index	SEC Document
2026-06-15	8-K	2026-06-15 21:20:42+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926074137/0001104659-26-074137-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926074137/tm2617970d1_8k.htm)
2026-06-15	8-K	2026-06-15 17:20:42+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926074137/0001104659-26-074137-index.htm)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926074137/tm2617970d1_8k.htm)
2026-06-03	4	2026-06-03 20:42:16+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000199413126000006/0001994131-26-000006-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000199413126000006/xslF345X06/form4.xml)
2026-06-03	4	2026-06-03 20:37:45+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000193635426000014/0001936354-26-000014-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000193635426000014/xslF345X06/form4.xml)
2026-06-01	144	2026-06-01 16:06:07+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000195917326004181/0001959173-26-004181-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000195917326004181/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml)
2026-06-01	144	2026-06-01 16:00:02+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000195917326004180/0001959173-26-004180-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000195917326004180/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml)
2026-05-15	4	2026-05-15 21:00:58+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000199973226000002/0001999732-26-000002-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000199973226000002/xslF345X06/form4.xml)
2026-05-15	4	2026-05-15 20:58:52+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000139215226000003/0001392152-26-000003-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000139215226000003/xslF345X06/form4.xml)
2026-05-15	4	2026-05-15 20:56:12+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000136453126000002/0001364531-26-000002-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000136453126000002/xslF345X06/form4.xml)
2026-05-15	4	2026-05-15 20:53:58+00:00	[index](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000153249726000002/0001532497-26-000002-index.html)	[document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000153249726000002/xslF345X06/form4.xml)

SEC Filings And Governance Risk

Pattern matches below are manual-review flags, not allegations or findings of misconduct.

Evidence status: reviewed
Raw filing documents reviewed: 4
Governance review score: 70.00
Governance review label: Medium
Summary: Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (11 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (3 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (6 matched patterns across reviewed documents) Internal-control boilerplate found (6 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Related-party, insider-loan, or promissory-note language found (11 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Control, voting-power, or dual-class language found (3 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Material-weakness, going-concern, restatement, or auditor-change language found (6 matched patterns across reviewed documents)
Internal-control boilerplate found (6 matched patterns across reviewed documents)

Document	Form	Related Party	Control	Accounting High-Signal	Accounting Boilerplate
1	8-K	0	0	0	0
2	10-K	4	1	2	2
3	10-K	4	1	2	2
4	10-K	3	1	2	2

Recent News And Event Influence

Evidence status: reviewed
Bounded-age deduplicated articles: 20
Latest article: 2026-06-22 09:05:17.897645+00:00
Weighted event score: 0.0716
Confidence: 0.8601
Top event classes: legal_regulatory, analyst_revision, corporate_action, product_contract_partnership, price_target_summary
Publisher mix: unknown: 9, market_analysis: 6, analyst_forecaster: 3, issuer_wire_release: 2
Summary: 20 bounded-age deduplicated evidence rows analyzed (15 factual/mixed, 5 forecast/opinion); weighted event score 0.072; top events: legal_regulatory, analyst_revision, corporate_action.

Factual / Mixed Event	Score	Confidence	Severity	Publisher Class	Label
legal_regulatory	0.7600	0.7660	0.7600	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7410	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
legal_regulatory	0.7000	0.7410	0.7000	issuer_wire_release	Legal, regulatory, agency, or enforcement event
corporate_action	0.6800	0.5218	0.6800	market_analysis	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
corporate_action	0.6800	0.5218	0.6800	market_analysis	M&A, acquisition, divestiture, strategic review, or ownership change
capital_return	0.6400	0.7910	0.6400	issuer_wire_release	Dividend or buyback action
capital_return	0.6400	0.5718	0.6400	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action
capital_return	0.5800	0.5468	0.5800	market_analysis	Dividend or buyback action

Opinion / Forecast	Origin	Organization	Author / Byline	Score	Confidence
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.4538
price_target_summary	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	1.0000	0.4413
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.8333	0.3831
analyst_revision	organization	Defense World	organization-level	-0.7500	0.5968
price_target_consensus	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.6860	0.3702
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	0.5700	0.5468
analyst_revision	organization	Seeking Alpha	organization-level	0.5700	0.5468
analyst_revision	organization	FMP analyst aggregation	organization-level	0.5659	0.5612

Published	Kind	Site	Sentiment	Importance	Article Signal	Themes	Headline
2026-06-22 09:05:17.897645+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	1.0000	0.0000	none	Price target summary: average target 175.00
2026-06-20 19:19:53.591467+00:00	opinion_forecast	financialmodelingprep.com	positive	0.4875	0.0000	none	Analyst grade consensus: Buy
2026-06-20 17:40:46+00:00	unknown	zolmax	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining, autos_ev_batteries	Promising Mining Stocks To Follow Today – June 20th
2026-06-20 17:40:45+00:00	unknown	dailypolitical	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining, autos_ev_batteries	Promising Mining Stocks To Follow Today – June 20th
2026-06-20 17:08:59+00:00	unknown	thelincolnianonline	neutral_watch	0.8000	0.0333	commodities_mining	Promising Gold Stocks To Add to Your Watchlist – June 20th
2026-06-20 12:58:45+00:00	factual_event	watchlistnews	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	Larry Mathis Financial Planning LLC Makes New Investment in Newmont Corporation $NEM
2026-06-20 11:50:49+00:00	unknown	zolmax	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	OCONNOR A Distinct Business Unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC Sells 6,730 Shares of Newmont Corporation $NEM
2026-06-20 11:50:48+00:00	unknown	themarketsdaily	neutral_watch	0.3500	0.0000	none	OCONNOR A Distinct Business Unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC Sells 6,730 Shares of Newmont Corporation $NEM

Industry exposure directions and strengths come from versioned configuration and are retained as features so realized returns can replace hand weights after enough outcomes mature.

Price History Snapshot

Source rows: 5,030
Latest price date: 2026-06-17
Latest adjusted close: $105.67
Curated asset updated: 2026-06-19 03:59:48.777156+00:00

Window	Return
5 sessions	13.9%
20 sessions	-9.2%
60 sessions	-0.8%
252 sessions	98.2%

Price source: D:/DataLake/curated/fmp_lake/price_history/NEM.parquet

Markov Multi-Horizon Model Detail

Horizon Sessions	Predicted State	Up	Flat	Down	Signal	Expected Return	Confidence	Quality	Flags
1	U	0.4900	0.1330	0.3769	0.1131	0.0027	0.4900	pass	n/a
5	U	0.4550	0.2000	0.3450	0.1101	-0.0031	0.4550	pass	n/a
10	U	0.4261	0.2403	0.3336	0.0926	-0.0036	0.4261	pass	n/a
21	U	0.4032	0.3251	0.2717	0.1314	0.0007	0.4032	pass	n/a
63	U	0.4428	0.2963	0.2609	0.1819	0.0115	0.4428	pass	n/a

Neural Market Horizon

Horizon Sessions	Neural Up	Neural Flat	Neural Down	Neural Signal
1	0.5348	0.1056	0.3596	0.1752
5	0.5101	0.1774	0.3125	0.1975
10	0.4467	0.2584	0.2950	0.1517
21	0.4256	0.3709	0.2036	0.2220
63	0.5115	0.2909	0.1976	0.3139

What To Verify Next

Latest annual and quarterly filing text, footnotes, and management discussion.
Recent bounded-age company news, earnings commentary, and material events.
Peer valuation differences and whether free cash flow is recurring.
Commodity sensitivity, hedges, production costs, reserves, and capital requirements.

SEC Modular Review Signals

These are visible review signals. They are not champion-weighted unless the ensemble policy explicitly assigns weight.

Component	Status	Score	Confidence	Direction	Docs	Forms	Label / Summary
sec_distress_financing	reviewed	-0.6600	0.7767	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Distress And Financing: negative review features: bankruptcy, default_or_covenant, delisting, liquidity_warning; positive review features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_cash_covers_reported_debt, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_cyber_legal_regulatory	reviewed	-0.6450	0.6567	-1	4	10-K, 8-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Cyber Legal And Regulatory: negative review features: cyber_incident, data_breach, enforcement, litigation, regulatory_investigation; positive review features: resolved_legal_matter; recent activity forms: 8-K.
sec_accounting_quality	reviewed	-0.5167	0.7767	-1	4	10-K, 10-Q, 8-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Accounting Quality: negative review features: auditor_change, impairment, material_weakness, restatement; positive review features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow; structured XBRL features: xbrl_positive_net_income, xbrl_positive_operating_cash_flow.
sec_disclosure_change_risk	reviewed	-0.4071	0.6567	-1	4	10-K, 8-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Disclosure Change Risk: negative review features: control_procedure_change, legal_proceeding_language, liquidity_uncertainty, material_adverse_language, risk_factor_language; positive review features: resolved_uncertainty.
sec_governance_related_party	reviewed	-0.3625	0.6511	-1	4	10-K, 8-K	Medium negative evidence: SEC Governance Related Party: negative review features: guarantee, related_party_transaction, unusual_compensation.
sec_capital_structure_dilution	reviewed	-0.0750	0.5233	-1	4	10-K, 144, 424B3, 424B5, 8-K	Low negative evidence: SEC Capital Structure And Dilution: recent activity forms: 144, 424B3, 424B5.
sec_insider_behavior	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	10-K, 3, 4, 8-K	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Insider Behavior: recent activity forms: 3, 4.
sec_material_event_intelligence	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	10-K, 8-K, 8-K/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Material Event Intelligence: recent activity forms: 8-K, 8-K/A.
sec_merger_corporate_action	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	10-K, 8-K, DEFM14A, S-4	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Merger And Corporate Action: recent activity forms: DEFM14A, S-4.
sec_ownership_control	reviewed	0.0000	0.5022	0	4	10-K, 8-K, SC 13G, SC 13G/A	Reviewed / no major signal: SEC Ownership And Control: recent activity forms: SC 13G, SC 13G/A.

Source-Cited SEC Review Snippets

Form	Filing Date	Section / Header	Flag Family	Matched Term	Match Quality	Source Context	Source / Extractor
10-K	2026-02-19	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE The information required by Item 404 of Reg...	related_party	related person	section-supported	ONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE The information required by Item 404 of Regulation S-K and contained under the heading “Corporate Governance—Related Person Transactions” in the 2026 Proxy Statement is incorporated by r...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/35/35ab1a54d48d9991b1612c3a3a28623267081cfb8e054f71501b14c7a30340cc.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000010/nem-20251231.htm; accession 0001164727-26-000010; cached 2026-06-02 20:26:18.134469+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-19	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 192 ITEM 14	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	UTIVE COMPENSATION 192 ITEM 12. SECURITY OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT AND RELATED STOCKHOLDER MATTERS 192 ITEM 13. CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 192...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/35/35ab1a54d48d9991b1612c3a3a28623267081cfb8e054f71501b14c7a30340cc.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000010/nem-20251231.htm; accession 0001164727-26-000010; cached 2026-06-02 20:26:18.134469+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2025-02-21	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE The information required by Item 404 of Reg...	related_party	related person	section-supported	ONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE The information required by Item 404 of Regulation S-K and contained under the heading “Corporate Governance—Related Person Transactions” in the 2025 Proxy Statement is incorporated by r...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/99/997a35b65cf263dc76ccc8244413c3d5c1b4123b7fcbc842bdc5d7ee59f4895b.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472725000011/nem-20241231.htm; accession 0001164727-25-000011; cached 2026-06-03 01:51:19.439138+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2025-02-21	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 201 ITEM 14	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	UTIVE COMPENSATION 200 ITEM 12. SECURITY OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT AND RELATED STOCKHOLDER MATTERS 201 ITEM 13. CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 201...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/99/997a35b65cf263dc76ccc8244413c3d5c1b4123b7fcbc842bdc5d7ee59f4895b.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472725000011/nem-20241231.htm; accession 0001164727-25-000011; cached 2026-06-03 01:51:19.439138+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2024-02-29	CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 198 ITEM 14	related_party	certain relationships	section-supported	UTIVE COMPENSATION 197 ITEM 12. SECURITY OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT AND RELATED STOCKHOLDER MATTERS 197 ITEM 13. CERTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND RELATED TRANSACTIONS, AND DIRECTOR INDEPENDENCE 198...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/ef/ef8ad5e311cfc52242214ee261816f069744db8ebfdf652341b1703a6c208b3f.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472724000016/nem-20231231.htm; accession 0001164727-24-000016; cached 2026-06-03 01:51:01.282938+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
8-K	2026-05-13	near matched term	compensation	executive compensation	compensation-context	The following matters were voted upon at the Annual Meeting: (1) the election of Directors; (2) the approval of the advisory resolution on executive compensation; and (3) ratification of the appointment of Ernst & You...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/ab/ab011226ea3f8acc14584ac06d8a3623803692b98b3f1b12297cc028cabce6f3.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926060260/tm2614426d1_8k.htm; accession 0001104659-26-060260; cached 2026-06-02 18:10:51.536054+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-19	near matched term	related_party	amounts due to	term-context	tively. These purchases, net of subsequent sales, were included in Other income (loss), net and the net amount is immaterial. There were no amounts due to or due from Pueblo Viejo for gold and silver purchases as of D...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/35/35ab1a54d48d9991b1612c3a3a28623267081cfb8e054f71501b14c7a30340cc.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000010/nem-20251231.htm; accession 0001164727-26-000010; cached 2026-06-02 20:26:18.134469+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk
10-K	2026-02-19	near matched term	related_party	guaranteed by	term-context	ebt securities, warrants and units (the “Shelf Registration Statement”). Under the Shelf Registration Statement, our debt securities may be guaranteed by Newmont USA Limited (“Newmont USA”), one of our consolidated su...	D:/DataLake/raw/api_responses/objects/sha256/35/35ab1a54d48d9991b1612c3a3a28623267081cfb8e054f71501b14c7a30340cc.bin; SEC document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000010/nem-20251231.htm; accession 0001164727-26-000010; cached 2026-06-02 20:26:18.134469+00:00; extractor applications/stock_governance_risk/config/filing_intelligence_taxonomy.v2.json schema 2.0; SEC models sec_accounting_quality, sec_capital_structure_dilution, sec_cyber_legal_regulatory, sec_disclosure_change_risk

News And Forecast Review Signals

These event-family and forecaster-reliability rows are currently review evidence unless the champion policy gives them weight.

Component	Family	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Metadata Note
news_product_contract_event	event	1	0.5600	0.7410	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_capital_return_event	event	1	0.4873	0.5781	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_issuer_release_event	event	1	0.4472	0.7487	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_market_opinion_event	event	1	-0.2700	0.6218	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_analyst_revision_event	event	1	0.2530	0.5375	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_regulatory_event	event	1	0.2495	0.5901	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_corporate_action_event	event	1	0.1109	0.5333	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	20	0.0703	0.5681	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	5	0.0671	0.5573	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_forecaster_reliability_overlay	event	1	0.0163	0.5573	current/review	research.news_forecaster_track_record_latest
news_macro_sector_event	event	1	0.0000	0.5449	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_earnings_event	event	1	0.0000	0.3479	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence
news_operational_labor_event	event	1	0.0000	0.1739	current/eligible	research.news_event_evidence

Government And Congressional Trade Activity

Filed	Transaction	Type	Filer	Office	Amount	21d Samples	21d Hit Rate	Avg Signed Return	Source
2026-04-10	2026-01-30	Sale (Full)	Arjun Mody	Deputy Commissioner	$1,001 - $15,000	231	0.4589	-0.0012	[filing](https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/3F589CB2A272619D85258DD5002DC58C/$FILE/Arjun-Mody-02.27.2026-278T.pdf)

Forecaster Track Record Context

Origin	Event	Horizon	Samples	Hit Rate	Signed Return Capture	Sample Status	Overlay Eligible
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	1	92457	0.5154	0.0013	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	5	92348	0.5333	0.0051	trainable	True
FMP analyst aggregation	analyst_revision	20	91161	0.5388	0.0137	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	1	63163	0.5034	0.0002	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	5	63138	0.5145	0.0020	trainable	True
Morgan Stanley	analyst_revision	20	62628	0.5441	0.0095	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	1	43084	0.5173	0.0011	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	5	43025	0.5267	0.0028	trainable	True
Barclays	analyst_revision	20	42580	0.5383	0.0089	trainable	True
Citigroup	analyst_revision	1	35619	0.5107	0.0009	trainable	True

Decision And Valuation Review Models

These are separated model boxes from the data-flow diagram. They are visible for research and training, but disabled for champion rank until validated outcomes and reviewed weights exist.

Model Box	Family	As Of	Horizon	Score	Confidence	Status	Evidence Note
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
relationship_exposure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1019	0.0236	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	4 feature families, 10 graph edges; families/signals: fred_macro_state
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
macro_regime_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1056	0.0741	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-31	Tariff revenue pressure (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -1.0000); Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	1	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	5	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
census_activity_pressure_score	other	2026-06-22	20	-0.1699	0.0494	enabled=False; stale/review; cutoff 2026-05-01	Construction activity (has_demand_driver, score -0.1806); Manufacturing Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.3620); Mining Business Formation (sensitive_to_macro_variable, score -0.2702)
bea_supply_chain_pressure_score	other	2026-06-17	20	-0.2667	0.5000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2024-12-31	Primary metals requirement 2.6414996; Paper products requirement 2.3757192; Fabricated metal products requirement 2.3290876
identity_corporate_structure_risk	risk	2026-06-17	1	-0.3000	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	GLEIF matches 3, auto-linked 1, active relationships 24, FIGI rows 3
sec_xbrl_reconciliation_signal	risk	2026-06-17	1	0.0000	0.8400	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-04-23	facts 10, latest filing 2026-04-23, flags none
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	1	0.0163	0.5573	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	defense_world / analyst_revision hit 0.5402 samples 5175; scotiabank / analyst_revision hit 0.6416 samples 251; scotiabank / analyst_revision hit 0.6416 samples 251
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	5	0.0671	0.5573	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_summary hit 0.6614 samples 441; fmp_analyst_aggregation / price_target_consensus hit 0.6577 samples 260
analyst_forecaster_alpha	event	2026-06-17	20	0.0703	0.5681	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	24_7_wall_street / analyst_revision hit 0.5446 samples 804; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161; fmp_analyst_aggregation / analyst_revision hit 0.5388 samples 91161
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	1	-0.0042	0.2027	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	5	0.0529	0.2344	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
historical_price_factor_alpha	return_prediction	2026-06-17	21	0.0883	0.2574	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	time_ordered_ridge_return_regression; 16 trailing price/volume features; min price 1.00, min log dollar volume 11.51; review-only
relative_multiples_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.3067	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	relative_valuation; P/E 9.0015, P/B 3.3629, FCF yield , ROIC
peer_relative_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5587	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	comparable_company_analysis; 6 peers; company P/E 9.0015, peer P/E 18.8039
cash_flow_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6501	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	free_cash_flow_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0268, ROIC
asset_backed_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.1625	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	asset_based_valuation; P/E , P/B 3.3629, FCF yield , ROIC
graham_deep_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.2252	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	graham_deep_value; Graham margin -0.3831, NCAV/market cap -0.0873, SEC cutoff 2025-12-31
residual_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5634	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	residual_income_eva; P/E , P/B 3.3629, FCF yield , ROIC 0.0586
growth_at_reasonable_price_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5264	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	garp_peg; growth 0.4746, PEG proxy 0.1896
shareholder_yield_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7288	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	shareholder_yield; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0268, ROIC
sec_buyback_capital_return_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5854	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-05-27	sec_buyback_capital_return; SEC buyback yield 0.0107, tag StockRepurchasedAndRetiredDuringPeriodValue, qtrs 4, cutoff 2025-12-31
sec_segment_sotp_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4379	0.9800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_segment_sotp_value; axis business, segments 19, HHI 0.1264, loss ratio 0.9000
sec_statement_financial_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7046	0.9611	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_financial_quality; Piotroski 8/8, quality pct 0.8523, latest 2025-12-31
sec_statement_altman_solvency_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5595	0.8900	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_altman_solvency; SEC Altman Z 3.6190, factors 4/5, suppressed False
sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	1.0000	0.9313	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sec_statement_beneish_accounting_quality; Beneish M -3.1406, indices 7/8, quality pct 1.0000, suppressed False
mna_private_market_activity_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0324	0.1000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	mna_private_market_activity; direct events 0, sector events 1, latest 2025-08-28, acquired size
quality_compounder_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7938	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	quality_compounder_qarp; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0586
distress_adjusted_value_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.3208	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	deep_value_distress_adjusted; risk score 0.0000, flags n/a
sector_specific_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.6163	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	sector_specific_valuation; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC
net_cash_optionality_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4231	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	net_cash_optional_value; P/E , P/B , FCF yield 0.0268, ROIC
capital_efficiency_value_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7924	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	capital_efficiency; P/E , P/B , FCF yield , ROIC 0.0586
magic_formula_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7999	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	greenblatt_magic_formula; ROIC 0.0586, EV/EBITDA 22.5479, FCF yield 0.0268
piotroski_financial_strength_score	quality	2026-06-17	20	0.7151	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	piotroski_f_score_proxy; ROA 0.0566, FCF yield 0.0268, share growth -0.0355
altman_solvency_strength_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.5639	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	altman_z_score_proxy; debt/assets 0.0959, current ratio 2.4428, net cash/market cap 0.0283
beneish_accounting_quality_score	risk	2026-06-17	20	0.6537	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	beneish_m_score_proxy; SBC/revenue 0.0000, issuance -0.0165, growth 0.4746
factor_tilt_value_quality_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.4361	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	fama_french_factor_tilt_proxy; value pct 0.6533, ROIC 0.0586, market cap 114761922130
dividend_income_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7943	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	dividend_discount_income_proxy; dividend yield 0.0095, events 12m 4, years 6
forward_estimate_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.9043	1.0000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-11	forward_estimate_value; forward EPS yield 0.0957, EPS growth 0.1101, analysts 11
cost_of_capital_adjusted_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7915	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	cost_of_capital_adjusted_value; required return 0.0766, yield spread -0.0498, beta 0.2864
reverse_dcf_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.5960	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	reverse_dcf_value; implied growth hurdle 0.0498, margin -0.0073, terminal growth 0.0150
explicit_dcf_scenario_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.7415	0.8000	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-17	explicit_dcf_scenario_value; DCF margin -0.2826, base intrinsic/price 0.6613, cash-flow yield 0.0268
commodity_carry_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	0.0735	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-19	commodity_carry_value; curve cutoff 2026-06-19, score 0.0735, roots HG
commodity_inventory_positioning_value_score	value	2026-06-17	20	-0.2161	0.7800	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-06-09	commodity_inventory_positioning_value; cutoff 2026-06-09, score -0.2161, commodities commodity:copper
value_momentum_confirmation_score	momentum	2026-06-17	20	0.4947	0.4032	enabled=False; current/review; cutoff 2026-03-31	value_momentum_confirmation; Markov return 0.0007, p_up 0.4032, value pct 0.6533

Relationship Graph Context

This section is visible context and training evidence. It is not yet a champion-weighted rank input unless the same idea appears in the weighted component table above.

As Of	Horizon	Signal	Relationship	Target	Score	Confidence	Freshness	Eligibility	Evidence
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Tariff revenue pressure	-1.0000	0.0285	current	review	treasury_fiscal_relationship_inference / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3600
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	has_demand_driver	macro_variable:Construction activity	-0.1806	0.1177	stale	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / positive / strength 0.5100
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Manufacturing Business Formation	-0.3620	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	20	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	1	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740
2026-06-22	5	fred_macro_state	sensitive_to_macro_variable	macro_variable:Mining Business Formation	-0.2702	0.0332	current	review	sector_exposure_template / inferred / mixed / strength 0.3740

Feature Family	As Of	Horizon	Target Type	Score	Confidence	Source Signals	Source Edges	Status
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-1.0000	0.0094	1	1	current / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Demand Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.1295	0.0406	2	2	unknown / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	5	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Has Cost Driver / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	20	macro_variable	-0.0896	0.0190	2	2	current / review / inferred
Sensitive To Macro Variable / Macro Variable / fred_macro_state	2026-06-22	1	macro_variable	-0.0420	0.0359	5	5	current / review / inferred